Its view is that the future automobile industry pattern should be a combination of "3+3+3+3", which is divided into four camps.
Central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises such as FAW Group, Dongfeng Motor and Changan Automobile, private car enterprises such as SAIC Group, Guangzhou Automobile Group and BAIC Group, new brands such as BYD Auto, Geely Automobile and Great Wall Motor, and other brands such as Wei Xiaoli are basically "following", just joining in the fun.
Wang Xing has put forward this idea for three years, and now it has been discussed by some car enthusiasts. The reason is that Wang Xing predicted Weimar Automobile before, calling it "no". As we all know, Weimar automobile has really come to the edge recently, Yang Guang's "problem auto show". Com just named Weimar automobile. So Wang Xing is also regarded as an Oracle, but it is not surprising that most analysts can see Weimar's future.
The future pattern of the automobile industry should not be as simple as predicted, and the China market will always need enough manufacturers and brands.
FAW Group can go on. Changan automobile has a good development momentum, but Dongfeng automobile is not ideal. Dongfeng Motor was once the "No.2 Automobile Factory" with a solid foundation and profound background, but Dongfeng Motor could not choose a strong partner in the passenger car field. FAW Group can choose Volkswagen, Audi and Toyota, but Dongfeng Motor can only cooperate with Honda, Nissan, Biaoxi and Renault, and it is destined to go far in the passenger car market. Unless you focus on the construction of your own brand like Changan Automobile, the helmsman of Dongfeng Motor seems to have no such strategic vision.
Who has the worst foundation, SAIC, GAC or BAIC?
If we only look at passenger cars, it seems that BAIC Group, the earliest joint venture company, has the weakest foundation, and Hyundai Motor can no longer count on it. How far can we go with Daimler Benz? The whole joint venture car camp is sinking, and BBA is no exception. At present, SAIC has its own brands, such as Roewe, MG, Chase and Fan Fei. Although the sales volume is generally not high, the lineup is strong enough to turn the situation around at the right turning point. Chuanqi and Ai 'an under Guangzhou Automobile Group performed well, and the launch of Haobo brand will accelerate the growth of these two brands.
BYD cars of private enterprises can go a long way. Even if the sales volume will fluctuate in the future, the advantage of the whole industrial chain created by vertically integrating R&D mode is its superior fault tolerance. The foundation of Geely Automobile is also very solid. Although the research and development results are not so fruitful, Geely has strong integration ability, and many of its brands can also help Geely Automobile through one difficult turning point after another.
How long can Great Wall Motor last?
No evaluation.
Li Weilai, Ideality, Tucki and other new brands have a good momentum of development. Xpeng Motors, the only poor and white one, will also usher in a turning point after opening the management mode of "all ages"; But these three new power brands are impossible to succeed, and there are too few. The zero-run automobile and Nezha automobile, which have been controlled by SASAC, have a very clear product planning idea, and the probability of success is very high.
There will be other manufacturers in the future, not including the new brands of traditional manufacturers.
Forecast:
The future pattern of the automobile industry may be divided into three camps, but there must be correlation and intersection.
The national team, FAW, SAIC, GAC, Changan, BAIC, Dongfeng Folk Team, BYD, Geely, Ideality, Weilai, Tucki, Nezha, Zero Run and other joint venture teams, there are actually few Chinese-made joint ventures and brand private car companies in the national team and folk team, and Great Wall Motor is also a private car company, so it was once called the Big Three with BYD and Geely Automobile; But there may be no Great Wall Motor in the future. Of course, this is just a personal opinion.
The relationship between state-owned car companies and private car companies is not "opposition", and eventually there will be deep cross-cutting and cooperation, in fact, it already exists now; Moreover, when a private car enterprise develops to a certain extent, it is absolutely necessary to operate with state-owned shares, especially some private enterprises involving core secret technology and military technology. Therefore, Wang Xing's so-called "3333" model may not be realistic, and eventually the integration of the two types of car companies may become the same category; And it is very likely that there will be a merger because of the change of the nature of the enterprise. If there are some shocks in the commercial vehicle market, at least one of the mentioned central enterprises may be merged.
At the same time, there will also be some China-China joint venture car companies, mainly for the ecological balance or "checks and balances" of the industry.
China's automobile market is a huge market with annual sales easily exceeding 25 million vehicles, which cannot be digested by ten or eight automobile companies. There are enough automobile manufacturers in the market, and it is necessary to balance resources among a dozen or twenty automobile manufacturers to ensure that there is no oligarchy in the industry. Therefore, there will not be few car companies in China market, but there will be many brands. This pattern needs to be maintained even if the joint venture car loses. However, some old car companies will indeed die out, and there will be car companies like "Wei Xiaoli" in the future, and there will be many.
Editor: Tianhe Automobile-Automobile Science Island
Published by Tianhe MCN, all rights reserved.
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This article is from Tianhe Automobile Science Island, written by Che Yi, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author for any form of reprint. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.