Just after Beijing was exposed to tighten the mortgage interest rate, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Qingdao and other cities have successively introduced mortgage tightening measures, and 20 hot cities with key regulation may fully follow up.
Tianjin
Recently, Tianjin revealed that the interest rates of the first home loans of China Merchants, CITIC, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and other banks were all raised from about 8.5% to 10%, and China Everbright Bank and Industrial Bank were raised to 9.5%. In the month of 5438+ 10, the average interest rate of the first home loan in bank of tianjin was 4. 14%, the lowest in China.
According to relevant sources, the interest rates of the first home loans of many banks in Tianjin have been adjusted before and after the Spring Festival. "The banks currently on hold also said that there is a possibility of upward adjustment in the future, and no adjustment has been made because there is no official document."
Guangzhou
In Guangzhou, it is reported that the first home loan interest rates of three banks, including Postal Savings Bank, Guangdong Rural Commercial Bank and Industrial Bank, have been raised to 10%. According to relevant sources, at present, more banks are planning to follow up.
Qingdao
In Qingdao, Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank successively raised the minimum discount of the first home loan interest rate to 10%.
Chongqing
In Chongqing, in addition to some state-owned banks, some national joint-stock banks have also cancelled discounts and implemented benchmark interest rates.
The 20 cities on the key control list are: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Nanjing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Hefei, Xiamen, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Jinan, Wuxi, Fuzhou, Chengdu, Shijiazhuang, Nanchang, Changsha and Qingdao.
The pressure of short-term housing price regulation will increase.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that shortening the loan period and slightly raising the loan interest rate are not mandatory, and there are still policy differences among specific banks. Up to now, some banks still offer preferential interest rates of at least 15% to high-quality customers. In addition, compared with hard measures such as recognizing loans at the same time and increasing the down payment ratio, the actual impact of reducing concessions is not great.
"Credit is the most critical factor in determining short-term housing prices. At present, under the trend of credit tightening, the pressure of short-term housing price regulation will increase. " Zhang Dawei believes that this also means that it will be normal for bank loans to tighten, prices to rise and lending to slow down. At the same time, judging the trend of 20 17 house price mainly depends on the price of funds and whether to deny the house loan. If the house is recognized and the loan is recognized, it can be expected that there will be more than 20% room for decline in transaction volume, and the decline in house prices is even close to 20 14.
House prices may usher in a long-term turning point?
The research report of Guohai Securities pointed out that the tightening signal of the central bank's monetary policy is equivalent to further confirming the end of the easing cycle.
Judging from the past experience of the United States and Japan, monetary tightening is a crucial condition in the process of bursting the real estate bubble. In addition, the policy of supporting real estate in the past will become history.
On the one hand, all localities strictly implement the purchase restriction policy, restrict the real estate housing credit, and the real estate transaction volume is greatly reduced; On the other hand, first-tier cities began to strictly restrict population inflow. During the two sessions, first-tier cities proposed the population control line in 2020. This means that the demand for real estate in first-tier cities will not increase significantly in the future, and house prices (including first-tier cities) will probably usher in a long-term turning point.
However, some analysts said that the conclusion that housing prices, including first-tier cities, may usher in a long-term turning point may be too bold.
It is inferred that housing prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing will also usher in a long-term turning point. On the one hand, all localities strictly implement the purchase restriction policy, restrict the real estate housing credit, and the real estate transaction volume is greatly reduced; On the other hand, first-tier cities began to strictly restrict population inflow, which means that the demand for real estate will not increase significantly in the future.
However, these two aspects do not necessarily constitute a real cyclical impact. First, real estate regulation and control, and restrictions on purchases and loans led to a decline in transaction volume. This is to implement the spirit that houses are for people to live in, not for speculation, and to limit speculative real estate speculation. Not to limit the normal demand for housing, so the suppression policy is always mild; Second, population control in first-tier cities, which is a goal and direction, has its inherent economic laws. It is hard to say whether this trend will change irreversibly. On the other hand, once the population control target is set, the land supply plan that meets this target will naturally be restricted. If the actual population is larger than the planned population, what may eventually happen is insufficient land supply and imbalance between supply and demand.
Therefore, it is prudent to simply predict the long-term turning point of housing prices in first-tier cities.
Easily predicting a long-term inflection point may affect the purchase decision that is just needed normally. In a healthy real estate market, supply and demand are booming, the transaction volume will not skyrocket and the transaction price should not double in one year. There will be no panic buying and panic selling.
The house is for living, not for speculation. The regulation of 20 key cities has been steadily advanced, with little problem. The change of preferential interest rate of second home loan is also one of the measures. The goal is to crack down on real estate speculation, which does not mean that self-occupation and improvement of housing are not encouraged.
It doesn't matter if you buy the first suite from your own home, and it doesn't matter much if you change to an improved house. Even if you buy an improved house for the second time, the cost increase caused by the change of loan interest rate is not particularly large. In fact, it encourages you to use more of your own funds to buy a house and reduce the leverage of buying a house, which is a kind of suppression for speculators. For property buyers, it is to discourage them from using excessive leverage and improve the margin of safety.
How many years is the most cost-effective for buying a house loan and repaying a mortgage?
If you ask about buying a house loan now, how to choose the most cost-effective?
"It is the most cost-effective to choose' 30-year equal principal and interest'."
Are you surprised that you didn't analyze it carefully as usual and come to a conclusion? This is because the articles about the choice of "mortgage" have been overwhelming, and the "financial experts" who know this way have already started to operate, so there is no need to pour out here.
So, give the answer first and save time.
1
Below, I will give the "financial management white" who still has doubts about this, and talk about "30-year equal principal and interest" and why it is the most cost-effective choice.
First of all, take "30-year equal principal and interest" as an example. After financing Xiaobai's house loan of 1 10,000 yuan, the repayment will be 5,307.27 yuan in the first month, 5,307.27 yuan in the second month, and 5,307.27 yuan every month thereafter until the repayment is completed 30 years later.
"20-year equal principal and interest" is the same, but the monthly repayment amount is higher than "30-year equal principal and interest", which is 6544.44 yuan.
Next, let's look at "average capital".
Taking the average capital as an example, after 30 years of housing loan of 6.5438+0 million yuan, the repayment in the first month is 6.86.1.165.438+0 yuan, and the repayment in the second month is 6.849.77 yuan, showing a gradual decline.
Do you need to explain the calculation principles of "equal principal and interest" and "average capital" so that you can do it yourself?
If you really have the heart, you can really do it slowly at home. However, the method is simple and rude. Just search for "mortgage calculator" in the browser, click one of "equal principal and interest" and "average capital", and then select the loan term, and you can get the result directly.
The above "30 years" and "20 years" mortgage calculation results are taken directly.
2
At present, the most mainstream mortgage methods in the market are "matching principal and interest" and "average capital", and there are repayment modes with different terms of 5 years, 65,438+00 years, 65,438+05 years, 20 years and 30 years. In this way, their loan portfolio will be very complicated, which seems to meet the needs of different people, but actually makes everyone more confused.
In this regard, the index of "total interest paid" has broken through the maze.
Mortgage law:
1. The longer the loan term, the higher the total interest paid.
2. In the case of the same loan term, the total interest paid by matching principal and interest is higher.
Do you think it is cost-effective to choose "20-year average capital" to pay 490,000 interest to the bank and "30-year equal principal and interest" to pay 965,438+00,000 interest to the bank, or to choose "average capital" with short service life?
By analogy, it is more cost-effective to choose a loan with a term of 10 than to choose a five-year loan, and it is more cost-effective to choose a five-year loan than a three-year loan. Finally, it is the most cost-effective to simply "buy a house at one time" without loans.
When it comes to "buying a house at one time", many people begin to complain! Isn't it because you don't have money that you get a loan to buy a house? Do you still need a loan if you have money?
three
I believe that many people's "loan to buy a house" is only a compromise to reality, and they sincerely disagree with the "loan" method, thinking that they have no money before they are killed by the bank.
So white people think that the less the "total interest paid", the better.
This "mortgage victim" mentality has spread to practical actions, and many people will ask whether to "pay off the mortgage in advance" and tend to choose short-term repayment methods.
But it is easy to ignore that "money" is depreciating or "depreciation speed" is underestimated.
From 1995 to 20 15 years, the average annual growth rate (M2) of broad money in China was 17.0 1%/ year (M2 stands for "the speed of printing banknotes"), and in 2065438 it was165438.
(The above answers were published on 20 17-02- 14. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )
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