Yesterday (65438+February 16), the National Bureau of Statistics released "20 165438+ 10 on the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities" and "20191-KLOC". 165438+ 10 In October, the prices of newly-built commercial housing in 44 cities rose month-on-month, while the prices of second-hand housing in 33 cities fell month-on-month, which was the second consecutive month that the prices of second-hand housing in more than 30 cities fell.
From 1 to 1 1, the national sales area of commercial housing reached1489.05 million square meters, increasing for six consecutive months, and the growth rate accelerated; The sales of commercial housing was 65.438+0.39006 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3%, and the growth rate was flat; The national investment in real estate development was121265.5 billion yuan, up by10.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped continuously from April.
"According to the data of the same period of 20 18, it is a foregone conclusion that the annual market turnover of 20 15 trillion is expected to create an annual sales record close to 16 trillion." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told the reporter of National Business Daily: "However, investment slowed down, the market gradually showed signs of downward adjustment under the influence of regulation and control, and the capital chain of enterprises tightened. At the same time, the property market policy began to be two-way, and the talent policy Xiaoyangchun appeared, and the bottom was blocked. "
Source: National Bureau of Statistics Cartography: Every edited Wei
The previous 1 1 month sales of commercial housing was 13.9 trillion yuan.
Before 1 1 month, the sales area of commercial housing was 1 489.05 million square meters, up 0.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0. 1 percentage point faster than that in June. The sales volume of commercial housing was 65.438+0.39006 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3%, and the growth rate was flat. Among them, residential sales area increased by 1.6%, sales increased by 10.7%, office sales area decreased by 1 1.9%, sales decreased by1.3%, and sales of commercial and business premises and sales.
However, the growth rate of real estate development investment has declined. Before 1 1 month, the national investment in real estate development was 1 2 1 26.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and the growth rate decreased by 0. 1 period.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics.
Before 1 1 month, real estate investment in various regions increased to varying degrees, but the growth rate dropped across the board. Specifically, the investment in real estate development in the eastern region was 6,377 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0. 1 percentage point compared with June1. The investment in the central region was 25 102 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points; The investment in the western region was 2,745.5 billion yuan, an increase of 15.3%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points; The investment in Northeast China was 493.9 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.6 percentage points.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told the National Business Daily reporter: "The development investment data reflects the fine-tuning orientation of the investment side of housing enterprises. The data fully shows that fixed assets investment and tertiary industry investment have played a good role in backing up. In the case that the current infrastructure investment has not fully recovered, the development investment data is worthy of recognition, which also reflects the expectations of housing enterprises for the cooling of the housing sales market. Still have a high enthusiasm for investors. "
Source: National Bureau of Statistics.
1 to 1 1, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises is 8748 1.4 million square meters, up 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate is 0.3 percentage points lower than that of 1 to 1. Among them, the residential construction area is 6135.66 million square meters, increasing by 10. 1%.
The newly started building area was 205 1.94 million square meters, up by 8.6%, and the growth rate slowed down by 1.4 percentage points. Among them, the newly started residential area1514.47 million square meters, an increase of 9.3%. The completed housing area was 638.46 million square meters, down by 4.5%, and the decline rate narrowed by 1.0 percentage points. Among them, the completed residential area was 452.74 million square meters, down by 4.0%.
On the capital level, real estate development enterprises received 1160531billion yuan a month ago, up 7.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was flat. Among them, domestic loans were 231300 million yuan, an increase of 5.5%; Utilization of foreign capital 1, 6 1 billion yuan, an increase of 57.5%; Self-raised funds were 52,565,438+0,654,380 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7%; Deposits and accounts received in advance were 5,448.2 billion yuan, an increase of 65,438+00.0%; Personal mortgage loans reached 2,439.5 billion yuan, up by 13.9%.
"On the one hand, the data of funds is actually not too bad. Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate has been relatively stable, and the financial situation has not deteriorated significantly. On the other hand, we also need to see that the feelings of housing enterprises are not consistent with the feelings of market data. At least, housing enterprises will think that the current funds are obviously tightened and need to guard against various new financial pressures. Judging from the recent actions of housing enterprises, it is still a common practice to speed up the withdrawal of funds and actively issue bonds. " Yan Yuejin continued.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics.
The amount and area of land purchased by real estate enterprises decreased year on year.
During the period of 1 ~ 1 .72 million square meters, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, which was 2. 1 ~/compared with the period of1. The land transaction price was119.6 billion yuan, down by 13.0%, with a decrease of 2.2 percentage points.
In this regard, Yan Yuejin believes that local governments will actively supply land in the fourth quarter, which will have an impact on land market transactions. From the perspective of the region where land prices have fallen, it is mainly the third-and fourth-tier cities that have a greater downward momentum, and the land transactions in first-and second-tier cities still show a local growth trend.
Zhang Dawei showed a set of statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center. As of June this year 1 1, the total land transfer fees in first-and second-tier cities reached 3.0285 trillion yuan, compared with 2.498 trillion yuan in the same period of 20 18, up 2 1% year-on-year. In terms of time, the amount of land transfer fees in first-and second-tier cities has set a new historical annual record one month ahead of schedule (the amount of land transfer fees in 20 18 was 2.87 trillion yuan).
Before 1 1 month, the number of cities with turnover exceeding 1000 billion reached 13, setting a new high in the same period in history. Hangzhou ranked first with 253.8 billion yuan, while Shanghai and Suzhou ranked second and third with 654.38+0666 billion yuan and 654.38+0656 billion yuan respectively.
It is worth noting that the supply of land listing in some hot cities has increased recently, and the market differentiation is also reflected in the land market. For example, land acquisition enterprises are relatively concentrated in non-private enterprises, and the differentiation between different cities is obvious.
The price of new houses rose month-on-month, and cities continued to decrease.
165438+1in the month of October, the price of new houses in 44 cities rose month-on-month, while 2 1 city fell month-on-month, and 5 cities were flat month-on-month. Compared with 65438+ 10, the number of cities in 165438+ 10 decreased by six, which has been reduced for six consecutive months. Among the first-tier cities, the prices of new houses in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen increased by 1.7%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, while Guangzhou decreased by 0.5%. 3 1 second-tier cities rose by 0.2% from the previous month; 35 third-tier cities rose by 0.5%.
The data shows that 1 1 month, the price of new houses in Tangshan and Yinchuan increased by 1.9%, leading the increase by 70 cities; Housing prices in first-and second-tier cities are relatively stable, and housing prices in cities with loose control policies are still rising, with Shenzhen being the most typical.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics Cartography: Every edited Wei
"In the down cycle of the property market, the newly built houses in most cities were gradually released, which made the data of new houses with online signing price statistics still go up. From the data point of view, the price of new commercial housing in most cities is' distorted', and the trend of housing prices depends on the price of second-hand housing. " Zhang Dawei pointed out.
The price of second-hand houses reflects another situation: 165438+ 10 Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in October, the price of second-hand houses fell in 33 cities, rose in 32 cities and remained flat in 5 cities.
According to the historical data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the prices of second-hand houses in 30 cities fell for two consecutive months in June 5438+1October and165438+1October. The last time the same situation happened was 56 months ago, that is, March and April of 20 15.
Zhang Dawei believes that the prices of second-hand houses in more than 30 cities have been lowered for two or two months in a row, and it can be judged that the inflection point of the property market has emerged.
According to the relevant data of June 5438+ 10, both new houses and second-hand houses in second-and third-tier cities have experienced a continuous decline or decline. 1 1 second-tier cities 10, the price of new houses decreased by 0.3% from the previous month, and 10 decreased by 0.6% from the previous month. The growth rate of new houses and second-hand houses in 35 third-tier cities decreased by 0. 1% and 0.2% respectively in June 5438+065438+ 10, and decreased to 0.7% and 0.4% in June 5438+00.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics Cartography: Every edited Wei
Jaco, dean of the branch of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said, "The cooling in second-and third-tier cities is still going on, and the regulation effect of the property market is accumulating. It is expected that the growth rate will continue to decline in 65438+February. "
As for first-tier cities, Jaco pointed out, "Except Shenzhen, the overall cooling of first-tier cities was more obvious in the second half of 20 19, especially the cooling of second-hand housing market was more obvious than that in the same period of 20 18. The change of house price in June 165438+ 10 shows that the market has bottomed out to some extent, and it is not excluded that the change of supply structure of commercial housing in some cities has boosted the average transaction price. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the overall demand for home purchases in the market will decrease, and it is difficult for house prices to fluctuate greatly at the end of the year. "
Will there be a "small spring" in the property market next year?
In the second half of the year, the frequent introduction of talents and settlement policies in various places has raised the industry's expectations for the property market.
Jaco showed national business daily a set of data. "Take Shantou as an example. In September, the notice of housing subsidy for newly introduced talents was issued, and the maximum subsidy standard for qualified imported talents reached 6,543,800 yuan. This policy effect spread in June 5438+065438+ 10, and the activity of housing search in Shantou on Anjuke Online increased by 28.6% month-on-month, making it the hottest city. At the same time, the improvement of consulting enthusiasm in cities such as Jilin and Dalian is related to the talent policy. These cities attract talents to settle down by relaxing the settlement policy, giving talents housing subsidies, employment and entrepreneurship subsidies, etc., which in turn drives the increase in the number of house purchase consultations. "
But in fact, the housing prices in cities such as Dalian did not rise sharply in June165438+1October. Dalian 1 1 new houses rose by 0.2% month-on-month, and the price of second-hand houses was the same as last month; 165438+ In Nanjing, where the heavy talent policy was released in 10, the price of new houses decreased by 0. 1%, while the price of second-hand houses only increased by 0.2%.
In this regard, Jaco pointed out that "the talent and settlement policies have promoted the heat of the property market, but overall, the promotion of housing prices is relatively limited. 1 1 The overall property market tends to be stable, and the investment transfer and competition transfer of real estate enterprises continue in the fourth quarter. With the arrival of the climax of returning home at the end of the year, returning home ownership will drive the switching of urban hotspots, and third-and fourth-tier cities will get more attention. "
"The most severe period of real estate regulation has passed. In the future, most cities may issue policies that are conducive to stabilizing the real estate market in terms of talent purchase, credit support for the first home, and provident fund policies. Although cities with rising housing prices currently account for a relatively large proportion, the market has shown signs of gradual stabilization. "
Will there be the same "Xiaoyangchun" market in 2020 this year? Zhang Dawei believes that "20 19 real estate market stability is the mainstream, and Xiaoyangchun mainly depends on policies. Under the main tone of' staying and not speculating', the policy is loose and limited, and the future property market will still fluctuate in the range of 15 trillion yuan to 16 trillion yuan. "
(Magnesium carving real estate is original, please pay attention to the micro signal: meikedichan)
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