It is understood that there have been reports in the market that "BYD's all-solid-state lithium battery is produced in Chongqing and will be tested soon" and "BYD's sodium battery has entered the battery working condition test stage". Although they are all confirmed as rumors, their circulation seems to reflect the recent "lithium battery anxiety" in the market.
Recently, at the China (Suining) International Lithium Battery Industry Conference and the International Exchange Conference on New Energy Vehicles and Power Batteries, Sun Shigang, an academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor at Xiamen University, said that the energy density of existing lithium-ion batteries in China is close to the theoretical limit.
Under the background that the energy density of lithium batteries is close to the "ceiling", the market needs new stories, such as solid-state batteries, sodium ion batteries and hydrogen energy. Who can be the "protagonist" in the future?
Lithium ferrous phosphate is growing strongly, but the energy density is approaching the limit?
165438+1October16th, at the launch conference of BYD's 3 millionth new energy vehicle, Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, once said that BYD insisted on "walking on two legs" for hybrid and electric vehicles and adhered to the route of lithium iron phosphate battery with safe raw materials and safe products.
In recent years, due to the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles and the development of lithium iron phosphate battery technology, lithium iron phosphate battery with lower cost has gradually "surpassed" ternary lithium battery and become the battery technology route with the highest market share.
According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, from 1 to 10, the national power battery load was 224.2GWh, up by 108.7% year-on-year. Among them, the loading capacity of ternary battery is 88GWh, accounting for 39.2% of the whole vehicle, up 62.8% year-on-year; The loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is 1.36 GWh, accounting for 60.6% of the whole vehicle, with a year-on-year increase of 1.55.6%, showing a rapid growth momentum.
According to the reporter's understanding, after the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery was surpassed by ternary lithium battery in 20 18, there was a period of market decline. However, since March 2020, due to the decline of subsidy policy, the market has rekindled its interest in lithium iron phosphate batteries, highlighting their cost advantages and higher safety. In May of 20021year, the output of lithium iron phosphate battery exceeded that of ternary lithium battery, and in July of the same year, the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery loading exceeded 50%.
The high prosperity of lithium iron phosphate batteries has also brought BYD, which takes this technical route specially, an expansion of market share. According to the report jointly released by the Association and Ke Rui Consulting, in June 2022, the installed capacity of batteries of China Market Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. was 9.655GWh, with a market share of 45.2%, down by 4.2 percentage points from the previous month, while BYD Foday batteries realized an installed capacity of 6.2 16GWh and a market share of 29. 1%, up by 5.4 units from the previous month.
In addition, BYD's strong sales growth also helps to increase its battery market share. 165438+1October16th, the total sales volume of BYD's new energy vehicles officially exceeded 3 million. In 20221-1October, BYD achieved sales of 1397900 vehicles, up by 233.92% year-on-year.
However, with the rapid growth of battery capacity and market share, lithium iron phosphate batteries are facing the situation of "energy density approaching the ceiling". Donghai securities research report shows that the energy density of lithium iron phosphate battery has reached the theoretical limit, which is about 160Wh/kg.
Caixin Securities Research Report also believes that with the continuous optimization of design, lithium ferrous phosphate, as the most popular battery cathode material at present, its specific capacity has basically reached the material limit, and the design optimization of batteries and systems is gradually approaching the limit.
At present, it is generally believed that lithium manganese phosphate battery will become the upgrading route of lithium iron phosphate battery.
Caixin Securities pointed out that under the same conditions, the theoretical energy density of lithium iron manganese phosphate is higher than that of lithium iron phosphate 15%? 20%, in terms of cost, the cost of LiMn-Fe-P is equivalent to that of lithium ferrous phosphate, and it has good economy. Compared with ternary materials, lithium iron manganese phosphate has higher safety and lower cost.
But from a larger perspective, the entire lithium battery industry is currently facing the "anxiety" that the energy density is close to the limit. Sun Shigang said that the energy density of the battery is related to the principle of the battery. For example, the energy density of lithium-ion batteries is related to the weight and density of reactive electron beams and active substances. At present, the energy density of lithium-ion batteries is close to the upper limit.
Will solid-state batteries be the future direction? The "main battlefield" of sodium batteries is not in cars.
Qi Hai _, president of Beijing Teyi Sunshine New Energy, said in an interview that the statement that the energy density of lithium batteries is "close to the ceiling" is mainly aimed at lithium-ion batteries that currently use electrolyte. In recent years, the energy density of lithium batteries has been greatly improved in material characteristics, battery technology and structure.
"In the future, lithium-ion batteries will transition to the solid-liquid mixing route and eventually develop into all-solid-state lithium batteries. Because the safety of solid-state batteries will be improved a lot, the energy density will be further improved, but some problems in materials, processes and equipment need to be overcome. In this respect, Japan is more advanced, and China is also increasing research and development. " Qi Hai _ said.
Recently, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) said that it has made a major breakthrough in the research and development of solid-state batteries for aviation. According to official website of NASA, the energy density of the solid-state battery developed by NASA has reached 500Wh/kg, which is almost twice that of the best electric vehicle battery at present-the energy density of Tesla's 4680 lithium battery is about 300Wh/kg.
At present, many companies, such as Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Zhongchuang Singapore Airlines, Contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd., Honeycomb Energy, etc. , in the field of solid-state batteries have been laid out. According to the mainstream view in the industry, semi-solid-state batteries will be "scaled up" and mass-produced in 2025, while pure solid-state batteries will take longer to develop. According to Toyota's plan, all-solid-state batteries will be produced stably in 2030.
According to PatentResult data of patent investigation and analysis organization, Japanese companies are currently in a leading position in the number of patents for all-solid-state batteries. From 2000 to March 2022, the top five companies in the world in patent applications for all-solid-state batteries were Toyota, Matsushita Holdings, Quanseiko, Samsung Electronics and Murata Corporation. Except for Samsung Electronics, the other four were Japanese companies. Among them, Toyota ranks first in the number of patents, which is 133 1, which is three times that of the second place.
Huaan Securities Research Report believes that the research and development of solid-state batteries has been nearly half a century, and large-scale commercialization is still far away, mainly facing problems such as immature technology, high manufacturing cost and high requirements for industrial chain coordination.
And sodium batteries will come earlier than solid-state batteries. 165438+1On October 22nd, Sichuan Instrument Technology said that the pilot line of the company's sodium ion battery project had been put into production when answering investors' questions on the interactive platform. Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. previously said in response to investors' questions that the company is working hard to promote the industrialization of sodium ion batteries in 2023.
Qi Hai _ thinks that after the energy density of lithium battery approaches the limit, it will bring some opportunities to sodium ion battery. In the future, sodium batteries will be widely used in low and medium energy density scenarios, such as energy storage. However, there are still problems such as high cost (caused by immature technology and insufficient scale), and it may take two or three years to have a good market application.
Lin Shi, secretary general of China-Europe Association Intelligent Networked Automobile, also told reporters that the disadvantages of sodium ion batteries are obvious. First, the energy density is low. Under the same weight, its cruising range is only about 60% of that of ternary lithium battery, and its life is short. The cost of subsequent battery replacement is high, and products with lower prices will be used in the future.
It can be seen that the emergence of sodium ion batteries will compete with lithium batteries in the field of energy storage, but in the field of new energy vehicles, it is difficult to shake the position of lithium batteries because of their low energy density.
What about hydrogen fuel cells? Qi Hai _ said that hydrogen energy and hydrogen-fueled vehicles need industrial promotion and policy support, as well as long-term development.
It is understood that the first batch of fuel cell network vehicles have been put into operation in Shanghai, and Shanghai has become the first city in China to operate fuel cell networks regularly. However, iResearch said that the current development of hydrogen energy is still facing a high-cost dilemma, and high prices, difficulties in storage and transportation, and high cost of hydrogen refueling stations all restrict the development of the industry.
On the whole, even though the energy density of lithium battery using electrolyte is approaching the "ceiling", it will still be the mainstream battery technology of new energy vehicles in the next few years. According to the calculation of Toubao Research Institute, by 2025, the global lithium battery market will reach 65,438+528 GWh, and CAGR (compound annual growth rate) will reach 34.4% three years later.