"Comprehensive data on housing prices, real estate investment, real estate sales, construction area and land transactions show that the current real estate market is generally stable." Recently, Mao Shengyong, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, summarized the operation of the real estate market in China in the first half of the year.
Many people in the industry said in an interview with People's Daily Real Estate that in the first half of this year, the regulation effect of "one city, one policy" gradually appeared, and the phenomenon of overheating and trend decline in the real estate market was effectively curbed. It is expected that the property market will still be "stable" in the second half of the year, and the regulation or refinement will be "sub-regional policy".
policy
In the past six months, the property market has been regulated more than 200 times.
According to the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, in June, the number of national property market regulation policies reached 46 times. According to statistics, in the first half of 20 19, the national real estate regulation and control policies reached 25 1 times, up 3 1% year-on-year, mainly involving market governance, market supervision, talent introduction, rental housing, credit, demand and supply.
On April 19, China held a meeting in the Political Bureau of the Central Committee to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy the current economic work. The meeting once again mentioned not to speculate on housing, and explicitly demanded the implementation of the long-term regulation mechanism of "one city, one policy", the policy of the city, and the main responsibility of the city government. Subsequently, the real estate market experienced an important turning point in the regulation of the property market: the regulation policies were intensively introduced. In May and June, the real estate regulation and control in various parts of the country exceeded 40 times for two consecutive months.
With the implementation of "one city, one policy", the regulation of the property market has also shown a trend of differentiation. Taking Xi 'an as an example, Xi 'an, which led the increase in the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities of the National Bureau of Statistics in May, further upgraded the purchase restriction policy on June 20. This is not the first time that it has led this country. Xi house price index has been rising for 39 consecutive months. Prior to this, Xi has introduced the "four limits" related control policies, and in April this year, a new provident fund policy was introduced again.
However, some cities have introduced easing policies in some areas, such as the local relaxation of the purchase restriction policy in Gaochun District of Nanjing. This is also the third second-tier city to open a certain area in its jurisdiction after Zhuhai in Guangdong and Qingdao in Shandong.
In addition, local policies are equally strong in the following two aspects: First, the talent policy. The data shows that nearly 100 cities across the country have issued various talent policies this year, an increase of more than 40% over the same period last year; Second, the adjustment of the provident fund policy is also very intensive. According to public reports, most cities have adjusted the deposit base of provident fund and expanded the scope of withdrawal and use of provident fund.
land
Adjust the rules of soil auction in many places to stabilize land prices
Since March this year, housing enterprises began to take land frequently, and the land market showed signs of recovery. The land market, led by some second-tier cities, continues to be hot, with record volume, land price and premium rate.
According to the report of China Index Academy, although the land transaction volume of major cities in China declined slightly in the first half of this year, the total land transfer fee was nearly 225 million yuan, up 16% year-on-year. Among them, first-and second-tier cities are still important places for land transfer in the first half of this year.
In terms of housing enterprises, Country Garden, Vanke, Sunac, Poly Development and many other housing enterprises have been actively taking land recently, and some housing enterprises have a strong willingness to make up their positions. According to institutional data, in the first half of 20 19, the housing enterprises OP106-June took a total of 558.6 billion yuan, accounting for 36.6% of the enterprise TOP 100.
Under the pressure of the hot land market, some second-and third-tier cities have begun to tighten relevant policies in a targeted manner compared with the first-tier cities that introduced land price restrictions earlier. According to incomplete statistics, some cities including Hangzhou, Suzhou, Hefei and Dongguan have adjusted the rules of land auction, such as "lowering the maximum price of one-time offer" and "the highest bidder may not get it" to further stabilize land prices.
In this regard, industry insiders said that the warming of the land market is only an individual phenomenon. The fiery land transactions in some cities are related to the accelerated pace of land supply, and high-quality land plots will produce high premium competition. In order to curb the continuous rise of land prices, the regulation idea of "one city, one policy" has made the policy adjustment in various places more accurate. Under the timely warning and regulation of the regulatory authorities, the next land market may have a cooling trend, but it will remain active and will be guided by replenishing stocks.
Yue, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, told People's Daily Real Estate that on the one hand, the land transfer conditions in some cities have been relaxed this year, and the price-limited plots have decreased, which has reduced the requirements for building leasing or supporting construction. On the other hand, the financing environment of housing enterprises has improved, funds have gradually returned, expectations are improving, and the enthusiasm for participating in land auctions has increased. Hot-spot second-tier cities will still be the focus of the layout of housing enterprises with their economic advantages and attractiveness to talents, and the land market will maintain a certain degree of heat.
Yue also analyzed that in the whole year, the regulation and control policies will be further deepened, the debt repayment pressure of housing enterprises is still relatively high, and it is unlikely that the land market will fully recover, and it will continue to maintain a steady development trend.
market
Overall, the growth rate of several indicators has declined.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from June 2065438 to June 2009, the national investment in real estate development was 6160.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points compared with May. From June to May, the national investment in real estate development was 4,607.5 billion yuan, with the growth rate dropping slightly by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. Development investment continued to decline for two consecutive months.
Guo Shiying, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, pointed out that since April, land acquisition policies in some cities have tightened, which has led to a decline in the enthusiasm of housing enterprises for land acquisition; In addition, since the second quarter, the "blood transfusion" channel in the property market has been closely watched by the financial regulatory authorities, and the financing environment of housing enterprises has been further tightened. The tightening of funds for housing enterprises will affect the future investment and development progress.
In terms of sales and sale of commercial housing, the sales area of commercial housing was 757.86 million square meters from June to June, down 1.8% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in May. The sales volume of commercial housing was 7,069.8 billion yuan, up by 5.6%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage point. At the end of June, the area of commercial housing for sale was 50 1.62 million square meters, a decrease of 7.66 million square meters compared with the end of May.
According to the analysis of Great Wall Securities, overall, despite the recent decline in sales, the overall performance in the first half of the year was still better than previous market expectations.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told People's Daily Real Estate that the sales area of commercial housing decreased 1.8% from June to June this year. It can be seen from this increase that it has been negative growth for five consecutive months, indicating that the market has cooled down. Although the housing sales in various places began to show a slight spring trend in March, the market data from May to June showed that there was resistance to the recovery of the property market, especially in some third-and fourth-tier cities.
In addition, in terms of funds, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, during the period of1-June, the funds of real estate development enterprises were 8,496.6 billion yuan, up by 7.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points compared with that during the period of1-May.
"From the next stage, on the one hand, urbanization continues to advance, and there are still just-needed and improved needs; On the other hand, the concept of "housing without speculation" is more and more deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and "policy for the city" emphasizes the main responsibility of the city government. These two factors are combined. In the next stage, the real estate market can stabilize land prices, stabilize housing prices and stabilize expectations, and there will be no ups and downs in real estate investment. " Mao Shengyong said.
Original title: "The real estate market is generally stable? The regulation effect of "one city, one policy" appeared.