It is worth noting that the economic growth in the second quarter, while the growth rate in the same period last year was not high (3.2%), the economic growth rate in the second quarter of this year was only 7.9%, which was lower than market expectations. What think tank researchers want to point out is that,
The economic growth rate in the second quarter of this year was not as good as expected, and the average GDP growth rate in the second quarter reached 5.5%, which was very close to the year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% in the fourth quarter of 20 19 before the epidemic. This figure shows that China's rapid economic recovery began to slow down after the epidemic, and the slowdown will be more obvious in the second half of the year. I am afraid that China cannot take it lightly and accept the challenge of steady growth this year.
In fact, the government decision-making departments that know the economic data earlier than the market have already revealed the wind to the market in advance. The executive meeting of the State Council held on July 7th decided to keep the stability and effectiveness of monetary policy in view of the impact of rising commodity prices on the production and operation of enterprises, and to further strengthen financial support for the real economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, by using the RRR cut and other monetary policy tools in a timely manner. On July 9, the central bank announced the implementation of a comprehensive RRR interest rate cut. The signal brought by this clear statement to the market is that the economic situation in the second quarter may not be as good as expected, so the decision-making department loosens the currency in advance to cope with the slowdown in economic recovery.
From the main economic indicators:
Industrial aspect
In the first half of the year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.9% year-on-year, with an average increase of 7.0% in two years, 0.2 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter; Among them, the second quarter increased by 8.9% year-on-year. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with an average growth of 6.5% in two years.
Investment aspect
From June to June, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) was 25.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of12.6%; Compared with 20191-June, it increased by 9. 1%, with an average increase of 4.4% in two years. Among them, the investment in private fixed assets was 65.438+0.47957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 654.38+0.5%; State-controlled investment increased by 9.6% year-on-year. 1-in June, the national real estate development investment was 72 179 billion yuan, up15.0% year-on-year; Compared with 20191-June, it increased by 17.2%, with an average increase of 8.2% in two years.
Consumption aspect
In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 21190.4 billion yuan, up 23.0% year-on-year, with an average growth of 4.4% in two years, 0.2 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter; Among them, the growth rate in the second quarter was 13.9%, and the average growth rate in two years was 4.6%. In June, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 3,758.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12. 1%, with an average growth of 4.9% in two years. The chain rose by 0.70%. It can be seen that although the consumption growth rate in the second quarter is still in double digits, considering the negative growth base in the same period last year, the consumption growth rate in May and June is obviously slowing down.
imports and exports
In the first half of the year, the total import and export volume of goods was 1, 806,565,438+0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27. 1%. Among them, the export was 9,849.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 281%; Imports were 82 157 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%; The trade surplus was 654.38+063.36 billion yuan. The trade structure continued to be optimized. In the first half of the year, the export of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 59.2% of the total export, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the same period last year. The import and export of general trade accounted for 6 1.9% of the total import and export, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over the same period last year. The import and export of private enterprises accounted for 47.8% of the total import and export, an increase of 2.8 percentage points over the same period last year. With the recovery of the international economy, the growth rate of import and export may further slow down in the second half of the year.
There are also two economic data worthy of attention-unemployment rate and residents' income.
Employment aspect
In the first half of the year, 6.98 million new jobs were created in cities and towns nationwide, achieving 63.5% of the annual target. In June, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0%, which was the same as that in May and decreased by 0.7 percentage points compared with the same period last year. It is worth noting that the survey unemployment rate of the population aged 16-24 is as high as 15.4%, which is related to the graduation of more than 9 million college students this year; The survey unemployment rate of the population aged 25-59 is 4.2%. At the end of the second quarter, the total number of rural migrant workers was182.33 million.
Resident income
In the first half of last year, the per capita disposable income of the national residents was 17642 yuan, a nominal increase of 12.6% year-on-year, mainly due to the low base in the first half of last year, with an average increase of 7.4% in two years, 0.4 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter; It is worth noting that, after deducting the price factor, the real growth rate was 12.0% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 5.2% in two years, which was slightly lower than the economic growth rate and basically synchronized. Strictly speaking, the growth rate of residents' income is lower than the economic growth rate. If this phenomenon occurs continuously, it means that the income target has not been achieved.
On the whole, China's economy achieved considerable (expected) growth in the first half of this year, but it is worth noting that the economic growth rate began to slow down in the second quarter, and the year-on-year growth rates of investment, consumption and import and export data all showed a slowing trend, exceeding expectations. Let's repeat our previous judgment. The domestic market still needs to be prepared for the slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year. China can't take the challenge of steady growth this year lightly. _