While resting at home, you can plan your work for the coming year and improve your work skills. Haha, for example, I recently downloaded the final exam that I didn't have time to study at home. Cut? Dear? I studied the X tutorial once, and this year vlog no longer needs us to work overtime to edit it for me. Then I picked up the guitar and learned some new songs. I have a chance to sing it to you at the end of the program. Coupled with chasing a TV series "Elite Lawyers", I watched several episodes every day, and the day passed. In fact, the usual weekend is almost like this. What have you done at home recently? You are also welcome to leave a message at home.
Today's topic is about the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on the automobile market. In fact, this epidemic is easy to remind people of all kinds of "exaggerated" plots that appeared around 17 years ago when the SARS virus occurred. Some people go to pharmacies to snap up Radix Isatidis, while others go to supermarkets to grab white vinegar. 20 1 1 A similar thing happened in the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan. People have heard that iodized salt can prevent radiation, and all the worthless iodized salt is snapped up.
In fact, the occurrence of these situations is based on the background of information asymmetry at that time. In 2003, WeChat Weibo had not yet emerged, and smart phones had not yet become popular. At that time, whoever had a computer with Internet access was considered a wealthy family. The speed and quantity of information dissemination of traditional media are far less than that of new media, so the news reports at that time will have some lag and lack of interaction.
Now the information dissemination on the Internet is almost zero delay. Anything that happens around the world may be forwarded to everyone's mobile phone in an instant, and there are countless netizens' messages at the bottom of every news. In addition, almost everyone's mobile phone now has several identical applications, such as WeChat, Weibo, Tik Tok and Auto Express, which have hundreds of millions of daily users every day.
Therefore, in the context of such a serious epidemic, men, women and children around us are in no hurry and live a normal life. This is precisely because in such a developed background of cmnet, people can see a lot of authoritative videos and graphic content when they turn on their mobile phones, even if it is only a few apps that we usually use for entertainment. For example, on the homepage of Himalayan platform, the "scientific guide to epidemic prevention" is put in the most conspicuous position every day.
How to solve the new pneumonia, I believe that the great gods in the medical field will definitely have a way. But as ordinary people, we still have to live a normal life every day. We are an auto show, and I just want to talk about some influences on the future auto market based on the background.
In fact, cars are a family's bulk consumer goods. If an ordinary family wants to buy a car, it will definitely think about it for a long time. Will the current epidemic environment prompt some users who are concerned about buying a car to buy a car in advance? I think this possibility is very great. The sales consultant exchange group in the national automobile 4s shop also talked with you about this topic. Now sales consultants will add customers' WeChat because it is more convenient to contact. Customers who have been hesitant before have recently expressed the idea of picking up the car as soon as possible. However, the price is still the focus of their attention, which is also human nature.
Not to mention hundreds of thousands of cars, even thousands of dollars. Even if it's a mask, it's usually only a few dollars. Now if you sell it to me for dozens of dollars, I may feel very uncomfortable. Although the price is regulated by the relationship between supply and demand, there are human feelings outside the jurisprudence. Under the current epidemic situation, I think winning people's hearts is more important than making profits. If 4s stores can keep the original preferential margin unchanged, I think many consumers will feel this goodwill in their hearts.
Many factories will shut down because of the background of the epidemic. The most serious thing this time is Wuhan. Speaking of Wuhan, we can think of the local Dongfeng Group. Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Nissan, Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen, Dongfeng Ying finidi, Dongfeng Renault and so on. But let's be clear, although they are all easterly winds, not all models are produced in Hubei. For example, the second factory of Dongfeng Ying finidi is located in Dalian, and both Q50L and QX50 are produced in Dalian. However, it should also be reminded that cars that are not Dongfeng may not have nothing to do with Wuhan. For example, Guangben's Crown Road model, its 1.5T engine is produced in Wuhan. In other words, if the Wuhan factory stops production and the engine cannot be built, the production capacity of Guangben Crown Road will still be affected.
Automobile is a multi-industry cooperative industry, and we just mentioned the whole vehicle manufacturer. Then there are more upstream spare parts suppliers? I don't know how many spare parts suppliers in Wu Hanyou and which automobile brands they serve. However, it is conceivable that once these enterprises stop working or the production process is affected, the production capacity of downstream automobile manufacturers in China will definitely be affected.
Not only that, but also logistics, transportation, warehousing and other links. Everyone should see a sentence in online shopping now: "Due to the national road traffic, your order will be delayed. Please be patient. " When we watch the news, we should know that traffic in many cities has been restricted to some extent, also to prevent the epidemic. Therefore, as long as the epidemic warning is not lifted. We have reason to believe that the automobile market will be greatly affected. The most direct manifestation of this influence is the lack of spot, uncertain order cycle and general price increase. However, this situation will only occur in the short term after the epidemic, and the overall sharp decline in the automobile market in 2020 is an inevitable result.
This is China New Year, so we can rest at home and stay indoors. But once you officially go to work, everyone still has to travel. Take the bus, squeeze the subway, drip or drive a private car? I believe everyone is very clear about which mode of travel is the least risky and which mode is the most risky. Any mode of travel except driving a private car belongs to public space, and there is an inevitable risk of infection. Therefore, will families without private cars put "things that can be done sooner or later" on the agenda in advance? The buyer's demand is increasing, combined with the demand of the seller I analyzed earlier, what kind of picture will appear in the auto market? Obviously, fewer goods and more people.
But even if there are fewer goods and more people, I believe it is not a "dish in a basket." When consumers who don't know cars look at their bank cards, they want to buy a scooter with 65,438+10,000 yuan. When time is tight and tasks are heavy, I don't know how to choose. We have reason to believe that he will choose a model with good reputation, large sales volume and high preservation rate on the market. The corresponding second-hand car market should also heat up, although some people may ask that second-hand cars may also have viruses. But let's think about it. If the scooter is just needed, the new car is out of stock or the price is increased, and the budget is so large, will this doubt prevent everyone from buying a used car? However, I also want to remind my friends who are used cars that if you want to sell your car better. It can be added that "all used cars in our shop have been disinfected". Although both buyers and sellers have psychological cognition, this is psychological comfort at most, but many difficulties are psychological, and the comfort will pass.
When someone sees this, they may have made a decision. Whether it's a new car or a used car, buy a scooter first. More expensive. Don't worry, just listen to me again, okay? It is not too late for us to make a decision now. Let's look back at the outbreak of SARS at the end of 2002, and it was not lifted until the end of June 2003. In fact, the epidemic at that time had little impact on the automobile market in 2002 and 2003, and even the sales growth in 2002 and 2003 was far more than that in the following years. In 2002, the growth rate of automobile sales in China was 36.7%, and in 2003 it was 34.2%. But in 2004, it dropped to 15.5%, and in 2005, it dropped to 13.5%. Seeing that the auto market is so depressed, the corresponding incentive policies have been introduced one after another. The growth rate recovered to 25. 1% in 2006 and 2 1.8% in 2007.
At that time, the automobile market was still a sunrise industry. No matter how big the external influence was, consumers' enthusiasm for buying cars was increasing. So even if the growth rate drops a little, it will recover soon. Nowadays, the auto market is not what it used to be, and the negative growth trend is irreversible. Earlier, I talked about just-needed users from scratch. I believe it is difficult for car users to choose to change cars during this period. Because in the context of the epidemic, there are two things that affect the auto market: first, the purchasing power of consumers; The second is the decision-making time of consumers.
The impact of the epidemic on the auto market is definitely negative. Although it has stimulated some users who just need to buy a car in a short time, on the other hand, it has also caused more people to temporarily give up the car purchase plan. Because of the decrease in income, there are more places to spend money. As soon as the epidemic was lifted, customers who had purchasing power or lacked some purchasing power had already bought cars. Customers with a long decision-making cycle may choose to buy a car in a short time. However, in the long run, 4s stores will definitely find that the amount of consultation at the source has begun to drop sharply, and there are fewer and fewer customer consultations and fewer visits to the store. The manufacturer resumed production, but the supply was sufficient, the inventory was too much, and the pressure was too great. Think about it, how will the 4s shop choose to sell cars at that time? With more people and less goods, it is inevitable to reduce prices and promote sales.
So, this is what I said at the beginning whether I need to buy a car at this stage. I suggest you listen for a while before making a decision. Everyone still has to make a decision according to their actual needs. After all, you will face a series of expenses when you buy a car. Maintenance, insurance, parking, gasoline, and even monthly payment. Buying a car is used to improve the quality of life. You can't blindly follow the trend. Just to avoid public transportation, you resolutely choose to buy a car instead of walking.
Tertiary industry, such as tourism, catering, entertainment, shopping malls, etc. Will be the most seriously affected by this epidemic, people's income in this area will be greatly affected, and the whole consumption environment will also affect people's consumption psychology and consumption expectations. China auto market has entered a "trend" decline cycle, also because the vehicle penetration rate has been relatively high, and there are still a few families who have no cars for the time being. If customers who buy more or change to buy have no confidence to spend, the automobile market environment will still not have good signs.
For the analysis of the future auto market under the background of this epidemic, this is only my superficial view. I believe many readers will have their own opinions after reading it, and you are welcome to leave a message for exchange. Whether you are a user who is obsessed with whether you need to buy a car now or a practitioner in the automobile industry, you are welcome to discuss and exchange opinions together. Finally, I still want to wish you a happy New Year, healthy families, wear masks when going out, go to bed early and get up early, protect yourself and live a quiet life.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.