For the interpretation of Sino-Russian relations, South Korea's Chosun Ilbo commented on June 5438+03 that "China and Russia began to actively build their honeymoon relationship through the next level." According to the latest poll of Global Times, more than 40% of China people think that China is stronger than Russian.
In fact, Sino-Russian relations have developed by leaps and bounds in recent years. China's third and fourth generation leaders and Russia's Yeltsin, Putin and Medvedev have defined Sino-Russian relations as "the best" more than once. However, as two great powers in geographical handover, Sino-Russian relations are also full of extremely complex duality.
The so-called "honeymoon" and "best" relationship between the two countries is caused by the interaction between big countries and geopolitical situations. The "Cold War" ended and Russia disintegrated, but it was not accepted by the West. Instead, it was squeezed by comprehensive containment measures designed by the West, such as NATO's eastward expansion, color revolution and missile defense system. In this situation, Russia's interest space in Central and Eastern Europe and even the Commonwealth of Independent States has been eroded, which is the natural approach of China and Russia under the pressure of Europe and the United States and the inevitable choice of international politics. It is also based on this that the SCO with China and Russia as the core can get together to keep warm and show its geopolitical influence in Central Asia by cracking down on the "three forces". However, it must be pointed out that the cooperative relationship between China and Russia is a joint self-protection under the containment and coercion of the West. This determines the fragility of Sino-Russian relations under the influence of the external environment.
Three examples are enough to illustrate this embarrassment in Sino-Russian relations. First, the Kosovo conflict and the bombing of the embassy of the former Yugoslavia. Before the war, Russia resolutely stood on the side of the Slavic brothers in the former Yugoslavia, and even excluded airborne troops and warships from posing for war with NATO. But at the critical moment, Russia backed down, and China became the only big country that firmly supported the former Yugoslavia. As a result, the embassy in China was bombed and Sino-US relations suddenly became tense. This is the first time that Russia cleaned China. Second, during the Beijing Olympic Games, the armed conflict between Russia and Georgia in South Ossetia destroyed the vision of "Olympic ceasefire" created by China by all means; Third, recently, the United States announced that it would abandon the deployment of missile defense systems in the Czech Republic and Poland in Eastern Europe, while the Russian President announced that it would echo the message of US sanctions against Iran. The former is interpreted by European media as betrayal of small European countries by the United States and Russia, while the latter is interpreted as embarrassment of China on the Iranian nuclear issue caused by Russia's abandonment of China.
More importantly, with the improvement of China's national strength, Sino-Russian relations are also undergoing subtle changes. Russia's anxiety about the rapid development of China has also been fermented by Russian political media and people. The recently rumored news that China rented Vladivostok caused quite a stir between China and Russia, prompting Russian officials to refute the rumor. A Vladivostok actually reveals the territorial complex of China people in history, and highlights the Russian people's realistic anxiety about the Far East beyond their reach.
Russian doubts about China
Putin's $5.5 billion bill has greatly promoted Sino-Russian trade relations, but it still has not changed the structural dilemma of Sino-Russian trade. According to statistics, the trade volume between China and Russia in 2008 was only $60 billion. Compared with China-US, China-Japan, Central Europe and China-ASEAN trade, the absolute value of Sino-Russian trade is relatively small, and it is impossible to form the interest relationship under the trade ties. Under the background of trade globalization, without the deep integration of economic and trade interests, the so-called partnership and friendship are pale and powerless.
More importantly, due to the negative impact of illegal traders dumping fake and shoddy goods in previous years, the price of China's exports to Russia is relatively low. China goods have a bad commercial reputation in Russia, which is a symbol of inferior quality and low price. Russia also regards the export of weapons and energy to China as an opportunistic means of profit. For example, in the construction of Russian Far East oil pipeline, the dispute between China and Japan about "Anda Line" and "Anna Line" is up for grabs; In the arms sales to China, either the asking price is too high, or China does not sell sophisticated weapons.
Paradoxically, Russia does not hesitate to export the most sophisticated weapons in arms sales to India and Vietnam. This shows that Russia still sticks to the old thinking of "Sino-Soviet friendship" and lacks strategic trust in China, hoping to build a geographical stronghold to balance China. Especially when China and Vietnam clashed again in the South China Sea, in May, Russia sold six Kilo-class conventional power attack submarines and some ammunition and equipment worth $65.438+0.8 billion to Vietnam to form a submarine force. Russian arms sales upset China and made the situation in the South China Sea more complicated and turbulent.
These "small moves" of Russia towards China actually reflect Russia's complex and sensitive realistic mentality towards China. In fact, Russia is more suspicious of the rapid rise of its southern neighbors than the geographically distant United States. The "SCO" with China and Russia as the axis has developed rapidly, and the "BRIC" seems to be a group, but in fact it is a friendship supported by on-site interests. Once the interests conflict, the contradiction between China and Russia will surface.
In short, the duality of Sino-Russian relations exists objectively. For China, the key is to update diplomatic thinking, reverse the deep-rooted diplomatic habit of "one good all the virtues" and cultivate a more realistic and rational diplomacy of great power interests.