The premium rate of the land market has risen.
According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, the total land market turnover in 50 big cities in China reached10.7 trillion yuan in May this year, up 8.8% year-on-year. Among them, the land transfer income of 29 cities exceeded 20 billion yuan, and the land transfer income of 50 cities exceeded10 billion yuan, all of which set a new historical record. At the same time, the income from land sales in Beijing, Hangzhou and Shanghai all exceeded 1000 billion yuan.
On May 9, the Beijing land auction market and Hesheng Chuangzhan won the Minute Temple plot in Fengtai District with a total price of 7.22 billion yuan and a premium rate of 26.2%, with a comprehensive floor price of 69 1.33 yuan/square meter. After 10, on May 19, under the bidding of 10 real estate enterprises, Hesheng Chuangzhan won two adjacent plots of Fenzhong Temple with a premium rate of 4.2 billion yuan, 42%, 6.54 billion yuan and 37.86%, and the comprehensive floor price was 76/kloc-0 respectively.
The land market in other first-tier cities is also very hot. 1May, a homestead in Qianhai, Shenzhen attracted 16 housing enterprises to bid, and finally Longguang Real Estate won with115.97 million yuan, 45% premium rate and 40,760 square meters of talent housing. After calculation, the saleable floor price of this plot is as high as 87,409 yuan/square meter.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that the premium rate of the land auction market has increased significantly. Among the land that has been auctioned this year, there are 44 cases with a transaction price exceeding 2 billion yuan, of which only 1 1 was sold at the reserve price, accounting for 25%. 20 19, and the reserve land accounts for more than 50%; Among the high-priced land auctioned in the fourth quarter, the reserve price accounts for 60%.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that due to the relatively loose financial environment, it is difficult for housing enterprises to raise funds and the funds are abundant. At the same time, the recently auctioned land is a popular plot, which is more attractive to housing enterprises, which is also the reason for the increase in premium rate.
In the context of the booming land market, third-and fourth-tier cities frequently auction. According to the monitoring data of Ke Rui Research Center, from March/KLOC-0 to April 1 9, 79 plots were auctioned in key monitoring cities, of which third-and fourth-tier cities accounted for 65%.
For the future performance of the land market, Ke Rui Research Center believes that under the pressure of capital and sales expectations, there will be more plots with poor conditions in the future, and the land auction rate may continue to climb. Although the transaction volume and market enthusiasm of cities have rebounded in an all-round way, the land auction competition in first-,second-and part of third-tier cities with more secure demand will become more intense, and the differentiation between cities in each line will become more and more obvious.
While the transaction is picking up, the inventory is also increasing.
Similar to the land market, housing transactions have also picked up significantly. According to the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, the number of commercial housing transactions in Beijing exceeded 20,000 in May, only lower than May 20 18 and April 20 17 after this round of regulation.
In terms of transaction area, the transaction area of first-tier cities increased by 20. 1% month-on-month, of which 495,400 square meters were sold in Beijing, up 42.5% month-on-month and up10.5% year-on-year; Shanghai and Guangzhou traded1185,000 square meters and 749,000 square meters respectively, up 22% month-on-month and up 14% year-on-year. The average transaction area of second-tier cities increased by 35% month-on-month, of which Wenzhou increased by 120% and Wuhan increased by 8 1%.
Zhang Dawei said that if the national market was basically frozen in February and the market picked up by 50% in March, then at present, the property market in first-and second-tier cities has emerged.
Not all markets show signs of recovery. According to RealData data, from June to May this year, the total number and area of new housing market in 66 cities decreased by 2 1.9% and 20.0% respectively. This means that although the transactions in some cities have risen rapidly, the overall transactions are still in a downward trend, indicating that the transactions in some cities have dropped significantly.
In this context, the differentiation of residential inventory in cities has intensified. The latest issue of "Inventory Report of 100 Cities in China" recently released by Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute shows that more than half of the cities have increased their inventory. Specifically, as of the end of April, the inventory of 54 cities in 100 increased year-on-year, and the inventory of some second-tier cities increased significantly. Among them, inventory in five cities increased by more than 50%, inventory in Rizhao increased by 1 14%, inventory in Hangzhou increased by 75%, and inventory in Nanning, Qingdao and Chengdu increased by 58%, 53% and 50% respectively. But correspondingly, the inventories of Zhuhai, Zhongshan and Nantong decreased by 38%, 38% and 35% respectively.
Judging from the ratio of inventory to sales, the inventory destocking cycle of the former 10 people all exceeded 30 months. Among them, the inventory destocking periods in Zhoushan, Yantai, Sanya and Baotou are 30.9 months, 365 months, 438+0.2 months, 33.65 months, 438+0 months and 34.3 months respectively; Quanzhou, Zhangzhou and Xiamen have inventory destocking cycles of more than 3 years, which are 38. 1 month, 38.8 months and 38.9 months respectively. The inventory destocking cycle of Dachang is 46 months, Xianghe is 55.9 months, and Wuhu is 62. 1 month for more than 5 years. In contrast, the inventory destocking cycle in Hangzhou and Qingyuan is only 4. 1 month, 4.2 months in Chengdu and 4.4 months in Ningbo.
Accurate supervision is the key.
On the one hand, it is hot and difficult to suppress, and on the other hand, it is as dull as water. The phenomenon of real estate market differentiation is still difficult to eliminate. Ni Pengfei, director of the Center for Urban and Competitiveness Research of China Academy of Social Sciences, said that the key reason is the relatively concentrated demand. From 2006 to 20 16, the population of metropolitan area increased greatly. Compared with non-metropolitan population, 90% of the new population is in metropolitan areas.
The investigation report of Daqing real estate inventory recently released by Daqing Statistics Bureau of Heilongjiang Province also gives some problems. In recent years, although the urbanization rate of Daqing has been rising, the population has been declining in the past six years, which directly affects the real estate market.
The report also believes that the problem of aging population directly leads to the weak rigid demand for buying houses, which further increases the difficulty of destocking Daqing real estate. Therefore, the report suggests to speed up the improvement of the housing rental market and build a housing system that rents and sells simultaneously. Daqing's residential inventory below 90 square meters accounts for 29.2%, which is more suitable for promoting the transformation of commercial housing for sale to rental commercial housing. We should speed up the improvement of relevant policies according to the current actual situation, and gradually make rental residents enjoy the same treatment as buyers in basic public services. At the same time, accelerate the implementation of preferential policies for farmers and migrant workers to buy houses and promote the reform of the household registration system.
Ni Pengfei said that the macro economy is still highly dependent on infrastructure. It is necessary to insist that the house is used for living, not for speculation, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market because of the city's policy.
Yan Yuejin said that due to the overall long period of residential inventory destocking, from the perspective of resolving inventory, high-inventory areas should adjust the pace of commercial housing supply and increase the implementation of household registration system reform, so that inventory pressure is expected to be actively released.
For areas with high heat, Ni Pengfei suggested that housing should be taken as the starting point to build new citizens' housing projects; Taking the city as the noumenon, implementing the integration project of new citizens' occupation and residence; With funds as the guarantee, start the new citizen employment project.
Under further precise control, Fang Yao, a researcher at Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, said that it is difficult to maintain the current activity of second-hand housing transactions in hot cities under the background that the downward pressure on the economy is increasing this year and the government work report still reiterates that "housing is not speculation".
A few days ago, cases such as 40,000 people shaking 786 suites in Chengdu and nearly 60,000 people competing for 959 suites in Hangzhou were pushed to the forefront. The reason is that its price is obviously lower than that of the surrounding second-hand houses.
Fang Yao said that from the perspective of second-hand housing transactions, the volume of second-hand housing transactions in Suyang, Chengyuwu and Shenyang decreased in May, and the increase in Shenning, the first hot spot in the second-hand housing market, also dropped significantly. "And some data rose sharply in May, which may be related to many factors. For example, Foshan, because its new system of online signing of second-hand houses clarifies the validity period of online signing contracts, leads to centralized online signing. As a sub-venue of the 2022 Asian Games, Jinhua has stepped up some supporting construction in the city, and does not rule out some speculation in the property market. "