Establishing a high-tech oriented high-end industrial structure and actively developing strategic emerging industries are the fundamental guarantee to solve the employment problem in China. Only on the basis of economic, efficient and safe operation can we establish a national employment system with coordinated and orderly talents at all levels, large capacity and strong self-adjustment ability. The article holds that China society should guide the establishment of a combination model of large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises with high-end driving and low-end coordinated operation, and accordingly establish a stable social hierarchical employment system. Unswervingly consolidating and improving foreign trade exports is an effective way to expand employment; A reasonable proportion of investment and consumption can create employment opportunities to the greatest extent; The idea that investment can stimulate employment cannot be changed; The government should devote itself to the connection between school education and market economy.
Keywords: employment; High-end industries; Complementary structure; Foreign trade; investment
For a long time, domestic economic circles have been accustomed to putting their main energy into the study of "material" factors (currency and financing system, logistics, etc.). ) in the economic field, and the employment problem, the "human" factor in the economic field, still stays in the stage of extensive thinking. With the deepening of economic and social research and the extensive development of human resources research, the important role of employment in economic life is increasingly recognized by people.
First, establishing a high-end industrial structure with high technology as the guide is the fundamental guarantee to solve the employment problem.
Although the employment problem in China is complicated, its core is the relationship between labor supply and demand. On the premise that the total labor force is greater than the demand, it is an inevitable main choice to greatly expand the employment space. If a country does not establish a high-quality, competitive and relatively upstream high-end industrial system in the international industrial division of labor, and use it to radiate relevant middle and lower reaches enterprises and form a reasonable multi-level coordinated employment structure, it is impossible to establish a stable national employment system. Establishing the strategy of giving priority to science and technology is the first condition for building a high-quality industrial structure. China's economic development and employment security can only be transformed into scientific and technological progress. The world history since the industrial revolution has proved that the ability of scientific and technological innovation plays a decisive role in the dynamic operation of economic restructuring. In 2006, China's investment in R&D reached US$ 654.38+03.6 billion, surpassing Japan for the first time and becoming the second largest country in the world after the United States. The development of China's scientific and technological innovation system is moving in the direction of building a new pattern of R&D according to the laws of market economy and the development of science and technology itself. The role of market in allocating resources is further reflected, the allocation of government scientific and technological resources is gradually optimized, and the state's investment in related fields has increased significantly; For companies and enterprises, under the guidance of the government, China enterprises have gradually become the main body of technology investment and development. The R&D expenditure of enterprises has exceeded 60% of the total investment, and the R&D personnel of enterprises have accounted for about 60% of the whole country, and they are constantly improving and strengthening their own scientific research team. Many high-tech enterprises have talents and markets. It quickly became a listed company in a short time, and some domestic science and technology enterprises have the strength to enter the international market. After China joined the WTO, multinational companies also increased their R&D investment in China. The 11th Five-Year Plan puts forward that R&D is 2010; D should account for 2% of GDP. This ratio is an index reflecting the coordinated development of science and technology and economy, and to a great extent reflects the quality of a country's economic growth and the health of its development model. At present, China has surpassed India and Brazil in this ratio and is in a leading position among developing China countries. However, compared with the huge economic base, the government should further increase investment and guidance in the mode of giving priority to the development of science and technology, so as to realize the transformation from "Made in China" to "Created in China". For example, according to European media reports, China will invest 20 billion euros in R&D's core technology to produce civil airliners with broad prospects in the future. Such a huge investment cannot be undertaken by a single large enterprise. Government support is a necessary condition for China's high-tech enterprises to grow into "international giants". Under the condition of market economy, the government should also vigorously support the development of high-tech investment companies. High-tech investment companies can make use of various resource advantages such as capital, talents, information and technology, management and preferential policies to effectively promote the transformation of high-tech achievements into actual production capacity as soon as possible and accelerate the industrialization and internationalization of high-tech products. The government should also actively guide the establishment of a distribution system suitable for market economy conditions, and the use and reward of scientific research funds allocated by all parties should follow the principle of market-oriented production factors participating in the distribution. In addition, the government should try its best to introduce advanced technology from abroad. Expand the import of advanced technology and equipment, urge Europe and the United States to relax trade controls, strengthen negotiations with developed countries such as the United States and Europe, urge to relax unreasonable restrictions on the export of high-tech products to China, actively promote the introduction, digestion, absorption and innovation, strengthen the introduction and digestion of key technologies and processes, and study and formulate fiscal and financial policies in line with international common rules and China's national conditions (Wang Shouwen, 2008). At present, the economic crisis in western countries has provided an opportunity for them to relax their restrictions on technology export to China, and our government is taking the time to negotiate in this regard. The government should also pay attention to the new trend of international industrial transfer, actively use foreign capital to optimize the industrial structure, and vigorously undertake the transfer of international high-end manufacturing. At present, the industrial transfer in developed countries shows a high-end trend, mainly concentrated in heavy chemical industries such as metallurgy, chemical industry and electromechanical industry. We should continue to seize the opportunity to rapidly upgrade the domestic industrial structure, standardize the management of foreign capital, guide the flow of foreign capital, and give full play to the positive role of foreign capital in promoting technological progress, industrial upgrading and regional coordinated development (Yang Yi, 2008). Finally, the government can take advantage of its own social resources, directly participate in technology research and development, concentrate on establishing a number of national large-scale high-tech research and development centers nationwide, and strive to break through the key technologies that restrict the export of developed countries to China and the economic and social development of China. In short, only on the basis of economic, efficient and safe operation can we establish a national employment system with coordinated talents at all levels, large capacity, strong self-adjustment ability and ability to withstand various crises. At present, China is in a period of transition to a moderately developed society, especially actively developing various emerging industries, such as community service industry, cultural industry, tourism industry, consulting service industry, Internet industry, new energy industry, etc., so as to effectively expand the employment field (in 2002, the added value of copyright industry in the United States alone accounted for 12% of the total GDP, and the number of employees was1/kloc-. Therefore, developing strategic emerging industries and seizing the commanding heights of economy and science and technology is one of the main factors that determine the future employment situation of the country. The development of all emerging industries needs the support of high-end talents, and the core of international competition is talent competition. Incentive mechanism is a mechanism to encourage the success of talent resources and the key to talent planning. The research on talent evaluation and reward mechanism in China is weak, and the system construction lags behind. Strengthening the planning of talent strategy is undoubtedly the top priority of future social development and employment security. In addition, the imperfect statistical system of employment and unemployment, the distortion and poor transmission of information are also the reasons that affect employment. Encouraging the establishment and improvement of employment agencies is also a way to increase employment.
Second, the complementary combination of large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises is the best mode to solve the employment problem.
In China's enterprise development model, should we emphasize encouraging enterprises to become bigger and stronger in system and policy, or should we choose small and medium-sized enterprises as the main model of economic development? This is not only related to the major strategy of economic development, but also one of the basic considerations to solve the social employment problem. Based on the experience of economic and social development at home and abroad, China should focus on supporting large enterprises with international competitiveness in enterprise development strategy, and take this as the backbone to establish a three-dimensional model for the efficient and coordinated development of large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises. On the basis of such a reasonable enterprise development model, a stable and sufficient employment pattern can be formed for high-level talents, middle-level talents and ordinary labor.
Some people think that the proportion of employed people absorbed by large enterprises is not high, thus denying the backbone role of large enterprises. I don't know that successful economies and large enterprises play a pillar role in the development of the national economy. The number and strength of large enterprises in a country reflect the comprehensive economic strength of the country. The proportion of large enterprises in the total number of enterprises in developed countries is generally 4% ~ 5%, and it is higher in some countries, such as Britain and France, about 9%. Only by developing a number of large enterprises with international competitiveness can we maintain the upstream position in the process of economic internationalization, thus effectively safeguarding the security of China's economy and employment situation. The scale of large enterprises in China is relatively small compared with well-known foreign enterprises, and there are not many truly competitive large enterprises. At present, China's development strategy generally implements the strategy of giving priority to large enterprises, which is the correct choice for China's economy to integrate into the world. The government of China proposed that the development of large enterprises should rely on high-end industries, and industrialization should be driven by informationization. With the rapid development of the software industry, the industrial scale, product structure, R&D level and personnel composition are further adjusted, the market is constantly concentrated in large enterprises, and products are constantly upgraded to high-end. In the future, the government should guide and encourage private enterprises to merge or jointly operate, which can not only avoid the waste of resources caused by vicious competition, but also achieve the effect of scale operation. The fundamental economic function of small and medium-sized enterprises is to provide supporting services for large enterprises, and also to become small members of enterprise groups led by large enterprises; The second is to provide a large number of employment opportunities for the society. The healthy development of small and medium-sized enterprises is a necessary condition for the government to concentrate on "grasping the big and letting the small". At present, small and medium-sized enterprises in China have created 69.7% jobs with their assets accounting for 48.5% of all enterprises, because the cost of creating a job for small and medium-sized enterprises is far lower than that of large enterprises. According to statistical analysis, large enterprises in China need to invest 220,000 yuan to create a job, medium-sized enterprises need to invest 6.5438+0.2 million yuan and small enterprises only need to invest 80,000 yuan. The same is true with reference to international experience. The number of small and medium-sized enterprises in Japan accounts for 99% of the total number of enterprises, and the proportion of employed people is close to 80%. Even in the United States, which is famous for its large-scale and trust management, its small and medium-sized enterprises provide more than half of the employment opportunities. Therefore, actively developing small and medium-sized enterprises is the only way to solve the employment problem. On the scale combination model of China's national economic enterprises, the whole society should guide the establishment of high-end and low-end combination models of large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises, which is in line with the long-term needs of economic development and is most conducive to the establishment of a stable social hierarchical employment system. Large enterprises are the core strength of comprehensive science and technology and economic strength, while small and medium-sized enterprises have flexible and more efficient comparative advantages in the production of parts and products in some places. After large enterprises develop new core technologies, many specific links are undertaken by small and medium-sized enterprises in the process of transforming them into production processes, which is more in line with the overall benefits of economic operation. This is an ideal combination model for large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises. Correspondingly, in terms of attracting employed people, large enterprises attract more high-tech and advanced management talents; Small and medium-sized enterprises have not only absorbed some high-tech talents, but also absorbed a large number of general-purpose technical talents and ordinary workers.
Third, consolidate and improve foreign trade exports and expand employment.
When the current international economic crisis affects China's foreign trade exports, some people are too alarmed and think that the driving force supporting China's economic growth should shift from foreign trade exports to domestic demand. As we all know, according to the whole international economic structure, expanding external demand is an effective way to enhance economic vitality and increase employment opportunities. As a world processing factory, China's current foreign trade export is closely related to the supply of jobs. When Chen Deming attended the opening ceremony of the Canton Fair in April 2008, he warned: "Every percentage change in China's foreign trade will affect the employment of 1.8 million to 200,000 people in the Mainland." According to estimates, each export is 654.38 billion US dollars.
Meta-commodities can create10.5 million jobs. Therefore, in order to effectively solve the employment problem, besides actively expanding domestic demand and increasing employment supply, it is equally urgent to inject new vitality into China's foreign trade exports. For a long time, foreign trade export has been one of the most important driving forces of China's economic growth. From China's entry into WTO to 2007, China's foreign trade grew at an average annual rate of 28.5%. In 2007, its share in China's GDP rose to 66.8%. A sharp slowdown in foreign trade exports will seriously affect employment and related basic industries. China's foreign trade is also facing the pressure that the traditional competitive advantage is gradually weakening. Therefore, China municipal government should first guide enterprises to optimize the import and export structure, so as to maintain the steady growth of foreign trade. Promoting the transformation and upgrading of trade itself is the fundamental way out for China's foreign trade. This is also a guide to formulate relevant policies, such as encouraging enterprises to go deep into high-end marketing links, improving their business capabilities, acquiring or cooperating brands, and exploring emerging markets through policies and funds. At present, the government focuses on encouraging enterprises to "go global" and reorganize international resources, which is a transnational integration model led by China companies and serving the strategies of domestic companies, which is conducive to China companies to explore the international market, optimize the export industrial structure, obtain foreign economic resources, broaden the channels of technology sources and break through trade barriers; It is also conducive to cultivating China's big companies with international competitiveness. The government should encourage and support enterprises with potential advantages to gradually expand their foreign investment, establish overseas production systems, marketing networks and expand financing channels, and promote their professional, intensive and large-scale transnational operations on a global scale. In order to make foreign trade export a guarantee for employment in China, China's export enterprises must get rid of the control of multinational companies as a whole and open up their own sales channels. These efforts need huge investment, and the government should give necessary support. In recent years, the Japanese government has actively used diplomatic resources to explore the international market. On the one hand, we should continue to strengthen the degree of foreign trade liberalization and expand the trade volume with traditional trading partners such as the United States, Japan, Europe, Southeast Asia and other countries and regions; At the same time, we should also take advantage of the preferential tax policies implemented by many countries to expand foreign economic and trade cooperation and vigorously expand economic and trade exchanges with countries with less trade in China. In the supply of export products, the government should support and help enterprises to buy advanced technologies and brands from abroad, which is a shortcut to improve design and enhance brand awareness.
The ultimate goal of economic development is to benefit people's livelihood. China can't rely on cheap labor to maintain its exports for a long time. With the change of factor cost (raw materials in the international market are on the rise for a long time) and production structure, China's export structure has been optimized to a considerable extent. In the first half of 2008, the export of mechanical and electrical products in China was 388.78 billion US dollars, up by 25.3% year-on-year, and the export of high-tech products was19665438+700 million US dollars, up by 2 1.8% year-on-year. This shows that although the export of traditional manufacturing products such as textiles and steel declined, the export of high-tech industrial products grew steadily and became the main driving force for foreign trade export growth. The adaptability of Chinese enterprises is ultimately manifested in the efficiency of resource allocation between industries and products and the improvement of international competitiveness of enterprises in emerging fields. In the long run, China's foreign trade export is an effective means to stimulate demand and an important guarantee to expand employment. At the same time, we can develop all kinds of foreign labor export and strive to open up the international labor market.
Fourth, a reasonable proportion of investment and consumption can create employment opportunities to the greatest extent.
Faced with the severe employment situation brought by the once-in-a-century economic crisis, some people think that encouraging consumption can expand employment. This view is one-sided, and all developed countries can learn from it. Many developed countries in the United States and Western Europe, including Japan, have maintained a high level of social consumption (including government-led social welfare system expenditures) for a long time, resulting in heavy debts. Wenxin Niu's article "The United States is technically bankrupt" quoted David Walker, president of an American foundation, as saying: "If all hidden debts such as social security debts owed by the American government to its citizens are added together, the actual total debt of the United States will reach 53 trillion US dollars in 2007" (Wenxin Niu, 2008). Therefore, the American economic model is a trap for our country and the world economy. Too much debt is difficult to repay, and at a certain stage, there will be a "debt crisis" or "bankruptcy" or a sharp drop in the exchange rate. In the process of borrowing foreign debts, the United States now encounters a "national credibility crisis." If China unilaterally emphasizes expanding domestic consumption to stimulate employment and imitates the way of debt development, it will fall into a series of social unrest such as national bankruptcy. China has long pursued the development-oriented economic operation mode of promoting growth by investment and employment by growth, which has been proved to be effective in practice. In 2008, China's total social investment in fixed assets exceeded 17 trillion yuan, and reached about 20 trillion yuan in 2009. According to the calculation of the National Development and Reform Commission, the investment of 4 trillion yuan can boost economic growth by about 1 percentage point every year, thus correspondingly boosting employment. Many economic experts believe that abandoning government-led investment is not conducive to stimulating demand, ensuring employment and accumulating the stamina of social and economic development. During the depression, it is necessary to increase state investment, and of course, we should try our best to absorb private capital, Hong Kong, Taiwan and foreign capital. For China, which has a working population of nearly one billion, only by maintaining growth can enterprises be guaranteed, which means ensuring employment. Arthur Okun, an American economist, believes that the drop of unemployment rate of 1 percentage point is related to the growth rate of additional output of 3 percentage points, which has been confirmed by many empirical studies in the United States for a long time. This relationship is called okun's law. In China, although the linear relationship between GDP growth rate and unemployment rate is more vague than that in the United States, since 2000, every GDP growth 1% can still boost 800,000-1 10,000 jobs. The growth of China's GDP extra output is mainly driven by investment, which can not only effectively expand domestic demand, but also directly affect the employment rate, develop infrastructure and enhance the stamina of economic development. In the second half of 2008, the China Municipal Government announced the launch of a 4 trillion yuan investment plan to expand domestic demand. Railway investment alone will increase 6 million jobs in 2009. In 2007, China's per capita GDP was about US$ 2,500, while the per capita national income was less than 50% of the per capita GDP, in order to accumulate funds for development. Regarding the relationship between investment and consumption, we should have a long-term vision to ensure that there is enough investment to promote healthy economic development and stimulate employment. In addition, on the basis of healthy economic operation and sufficient repayment ability, a certain amount of national debt can be issued moderately. 1998-2002, China issued 660 billion yuan of long-term construction bonds. Investment in national debt drives economic growth 1.5 to 2 percentage points every year, creating 7.5 million jobs. The government must also determine the bottom line of GDP growth from the perspective of employment pressure (such as 8% in 2009).
In China, it is also worth discussing whether a substantial increase in consumption level can effectively expand domestic demand. Keynes advocated the extravagant consumption of the rich, which was regarded as the driving force of social and economic development. At present, many people in China believe that from the rich to the poor, greatly expanding consumption is the only way to stimulate employment in China. But in fact, the unemployment faced by China is very different from that studied by Keynes. 1929- 1933 during the great depression, nearly 10 million people in the United States, Britain and France also lost their jobs. As Keynes thought, this kind of unemployment is mainly caused by insufficient demand. As long as there is enough demand and make full use of the existing production capacity, the unemployment problem will be solved automatically. However, China's economy as a whole has not reached a relatively developed state. Unemployment in China consists of two parts. Part of it is that the total number of jobs is absolutely less than the total amount of labor. The unemployed population is about 65.438+0.5 billion. The other part is overcapacity and unemployment in some industries caused by insufficient demand, and the number of these people is far less than the former. In today's China, the former is a long-term fundamental problem, while the latter is a temporary phenomenon in economic cycle fluctuation. The only way to solve the employment problem in China is to adjust the industrial structure, improve the economic quality and expand the economic quantity. There is no shortcut.
Five, education is one of the leading and basic factors to develop the economy and solve the employment problem.
In the context of the international economic crisis, there are two phenomena worthy of people's consideration: first, in the second half of 2008, many labor-intensive foreign trade enterprises laid off some ordinary manual workers, while R&D talents are still popular; Secondly, in recent years, statistical information shows that the employment rate of higher vocational students in Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing has begun to exceed that of undergraduates, especially in front-line technical posts with relatively high technical content such as automobiles, electronics, computers, maintenance and engineering. Whether the education is appropriate and the scale is appropriate is directly related to the employment quality of workers and the sound development of the national economy.
Some experts hit the nail on the head and pointed out that one of the main reasons for the current oversupply of employment in China is the neglect of human development and insufficient investment in human capital. The upgrading of industrial structure and the development of industrial division of labor need a lot of human capital as the foundation. Due to the shortage of human capital in China, industrial upgrading, a macro means of expanding employment space, and industrial division of labor, a micro means of expanding employment space, are difficult to play an effective role, resulting in insufficient employment demand. At the end of the 20th century, knowledge economy emerged, which is the best proof of human resources theory. Knowledge (in essence, the comprehensive quality of scientific researchers is constantly improving) has contributed more to economic growth than the sum of other production factors. In the knowledge economy, the primary factor that determines the competitiveness and profit rate of enterprises is not the size of tangible assets, but the high-tech content, the innovation ability of managers and technicians, and the status of intellectual property rights. Improving the population quality of the people can not only increase new inventions and improve the production skills of ordinary workers, but also be a very good way to make up for the decreasing demographic dividend. By increasing investment in education, improving the quality of workers and improving their work skills, the new demographic dividend will play a greater role and will be a lasting power and source. Therefore, it is necessary not only to run ordinary high schools and universities well, but also to run vocational and technical schools better and improve the operational skills and technical level of front-line workers. Strengthen the technical training for migrant workers (Zhang Songtao, 2008). Especially since the establishment of human resources theory, people have fully realized that modern education is the basic condition for full, reasonable and efficient employment. China is becoming an important manufacturing base in the world, and there is a huge demand for skilled workers. The prospect of developing vocational and technical education in China is very broad. Government education departments should strive to embody cutting-edge technologies and skills in specific links of vocational education and training.
In order to adapt to the characteristics of modern economy and education development, the education department should increase the intensity of encouraging lifelong education, which is an inevitable requirement for mankind to enter the information society and knowledge economy era. With the rapid development of modern science and technology, the doubling period of total knowledge has been shortened from 10 year to 3-5 years. Due to the breakthrough and accelerated development of high technology and its industries, some traditional industries disappeared and some emerging industries appeared one after another. The related occupations that accompany this production change are also constantly changing. According to statistics, American employees change jobs or jobs 12 times, EU 8 times and developing countries 3m4 times. The change of economic life has given birth to the change of educational concept, that is, the lifelong nature of educational process, the universality of educational objects, the openness of educational system and the sociality of educational space (especially in the network age). Governments at all levels should vigorously support the establishment of "Open University" (Wu Shiying, 1995), a new educational institution that provides "charging" opportunities for the whole people, and also use network resources to spread new work skills.
[References]
[1] Wenxin Niu, the United States is technically bankrupt [J], China Economic Weekly, 2008, (49)23-25.
[2] Wang Shouwen, changing the way to promote the sound and rapid development of foreign trade, 2008, (7): 18-2 1.
[3] Wu Shiying et al, History of Foreign Education [M] Beijing: Education Science Press, 1995.
[4] Yang Yi. Current pressure on China's industrial security and its countermeasures [J]. International Trade, 2008, (9): 6-9.
[5] Zhang Songtao, International Financial Crisis: Opportunities and Challenges for China to Enhance Industrial Competitiveness [J], International Trade, 2008, (1 1): 20-25.
Employment in 2005 According to the data of the national census, in 2005, there were 1 654,380,000 new laborers with employment needs. According to the data released by the Ministry of Education not long ago, the number of college graduates nationwide is expected to reach 3.38 million in 2005, an increase of 580,000 over last year, with an increase of 20.7 1%. By the end of 2004, 8.3 million registered unemployed people in cities and towns needed employment, and 2.7 million unregistered unemployed people needed employment.
Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood. Expanding employment and realizing full employment in society is the basic goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way and the fundamental guarantee for comprehensively improving people's income and living standards; Expanding employment is the basis for alleviating the pressure brought by the increase of workers' mobility and ensuring social, economic and even political stability. Employment has become a long-term topic of discussion among the general public, and all major media at home and abroad cherish it even more. Every year, people talk about the employment rate announced by the national authority.
As China is still in the expansion period of population size and working-age population, this year's labor supply is determined by the working-age population. According to the data of the national census in 2000, in 2005, there were 1 654,380+00000 new laborers with employment needs. According to the data released by the Ministry of Education not long ago, the number of college graduates nationwide is expected to reach 3.38 million in 2005, an increase of 580,000 over last year, with an increase of 20.7 1%. By the end of 2004, 8.3 million registered unemployed people in cities and towns needed employment, and 2.7 million unregistered unemployed people needed employment. In 2005, due to the separation of main and auxiliary industries and the adjustment of industrial structure, about 3 million people needed to change jobs. Total of these three categories: In 2005, the number of people needing employment remained above 25 million. The employment situation depends on the supply and demand of labor force. From the supply side, employment mainly faces three pressures: first, the number of new labor; Second, the rural surplus labor force is transferred to non-agricultural fields and cities and towns; Third, layoffs and layoffs in cities and towns.
Combined with the statistics of previous years and the employment situation this year, domestic human resources research experts predict that "the first employment rate of college students in the future may be around 65%." Faced with such a rich domestic labor force, employers have a lot of choices, but for the vast number of fresh graduates in 2005, the employment pressure is self-evident.