Trend 1: frequent land kings
It is not an exaggeration to call the Beijing land market in 20 15 years "the year of the land king". 65438+10.5, China Merchants, China Resources, Wharf and Ping An Consortium won the east and west plots of Fengtai Yalin West Residential Area in one fell swoop, raising the floor price to 49,000 /m2. At the same time, it officially opened the curtain of "the battle for the land king". In the next few months, Fengtai Baipen Kiln, Fengtai Yuquanying, Haidian Yongfeng Industrial Base (renting second-hand houses with real estate prices) and Beiqijia Town in Changping staged fierce land grabs, and successively took off the title of "Land King" with rising unit prices and floor prices.
At the end of August, the Beijing land market suddenly warmed up again, and four land kings were shot in just ten days. First, on August 3 1 day, the plot of Pomegranate Village in Fengtai attracted the attention of the whole city with a total price of 5.025 billion yuan and a floor price of about 60,000 (second-hand houses for rent)/square meter; Two days later, Sunhe plot became the new focus of the industry with a total price of 6.483 billion yuan and a floor price of 53,830 yuan/square meter. On September 8 and 9, the Dongba plot and Xidian village plot in Sunhe Township once again triggered a fierce land grab war.
After the price of "flour" rises sharply, it is naturally "bread" that is most directly affected. Taking several popular plots on sale in Fengtai District as an example, the floor price as high as 60,000 /m2 may drive the regional property market into the era of 654.38+ million+. "After the announcement of the transaction information of Shiliuzhuang plot, the consultation telephone number of the sales office has not been broken." A real estate consultant said that the unit price of the project is about 30,000 yuan, which has obvious price advantage compared with the newly sold hot plots and other surrounding projects for sale. As land transactions gradually enter the development stage and sales stage, regional housing prices are bound to face a new round of rise.
Trend 2: Inventory decrease
Since the implementation of the purchase restriction policy, high inventory has been a common problem in the national real estate market. With the loosening of policies in some cities and the introduction of favorable policies in recent years, the property market transactions showed signs of recovery, and the inventory continued to decrease for several months. By the end of August, 20 15, the total inventory of new commercial housing in 35 cities monitored by research institutions was 257.29 million square meters, down 0.8% from the previous month and 1.4% from the same period last year. The inventory scale has declined for six consecutive months. More obviously, in the case that the year-on-year growth rate of inventory maintained a positive growth trend for 54 consecutive months, negative growth occurred for the first time in August.
Specific to Beijing, the inventory pressure is also steadily released. The data shows that as of August 3 1, the inventory of new houses in Beijing remained at 7 1.39 million sets, which was significantly lower than the peak of 89,000 sets last year. "Beijing property market inventory once exceeded 80,000 sets for more than ten months, and this time it dropped to nearly 70,000 sets. At the current sales speed, the inventory has been digested for less than 12 months, and 70,000 sets mean that the demand for the property market tends to be active. " Industry analysis, from another perspective, also means the narrowing of the scope of purchase options.
"The timing of buying a house is relative. In my opinion, as long as you choose the right house, it is the best time to buy. " Mr. Liu, an interested buyer, said that he chose a 250-square-meter product for the property, and the price was around 8.4 million.
Trend 3: rising house prices
Every property buyer has illusions about house prices, hoping that house prices will not rise too fast, and that he can buy a good house that meets the psychological price. The only difference is that as long as housing prices reach the stage of psychological endurance, some property buyers will make decisive moves. And some property buyers are waiting to cut prices. But the trend of house prices is obviously not what the latter wants.
6543810-August, Beijing's new house prices were 324 12 yuan/flat, 32260 yuan/flat, 3224 yuan/flat, 3240 1 yuan/flat, 327 19 yuan/flat and 333, respectively. It is not difficult to see from the above data that although house prices fell three times in the first four months, they began to enter a steady upward channel in May.
According to the calculation, from May to August, the month-on-month price increase was 0. 17%, 0.98%, 1.48% and 1.74% respectively. Industry analysts believe that the continuous expansion of the increase has largely provided evidence for the continuous upward trend of housing prices.
What's more worth mentioning is that in the first week of September (August 31-September 6), the average transaction price of commercial housing in Beijing rose to 35,574 yuan/flat. This is the first time that Beijing's housing prices have exceeded the 35,000 yuan mark. According to expert analysis, in terms of housing prices, Jin Jiu has made a good start and will continue to rise in the future.
In this context, some projects with low prices have become hot spots for buyers.
Trend 4: Frequent policies
From a policy perspective, reviewing the policy trends since the beginning of the year is the biggest and most relaxed policy environment since the purchase restriction. Roughly calculated, since 65438+ 10, nearly 20 national policies have been introduced one after another. Since June 65438+ 10, RRR has cut interest rates three times and four times. After the interest rate cut on August 25th, the benchmark mortgage interest rate was lowered to the lowest value of 5. 15%. This also means that the purchase cost of property buyers is much lower than in the past.
Policies that have a greater impact on the real estate market include reducing the down payment ratio of second homes to 40% and reducing the business tax collection period of second-hand houses to two years. The provident fund loan policy has also been relaxed. On August 365, 438+0, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China issued a notice saying that under the premise of paying off the first home loan, the minimum down payment ratio of provident fund loans to buy a second home was reduced to 20%.
"Such frequent and vigorous policies have never appeared in the past 20 years. More importantly, basically every policy is very targeted and practical. " A number of industry veterans said that after the first eight months of policy accumulation, the market effect is expected to be released in the second half of the year, and now is a more appropriate time to buy a house.
Some experts also said that, generally speaking, the property market policy is a phased adjustment, and the duration is unpredictable. At present, regardless of the mortgage interest rate or the down payment ratio, the policy is giving a green light, and buyers should seize this window period of buying houses. "Because no one can predict when the policy will be adjusted again, maybe one day the interest rate will be greatly increased." Experts said frankly. (from network comprehensive finishing)
(The above answers were published on 20 15-09-29. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )
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