The summit was hosted by Caijing magazine, supported by the strategic cooperation of Huaxia Fund and the research of Social Value Investment Alliance. More than 500 representatives from professional research institutions, industries, academic and political experts and scholars, listed companies and financial institutions. Attended the meeting and gave keynote speeches and discussions on important topics such as the trend of change, enjoying development opportunities, exploring cooperation and empowerment, and building a benign ecology under the new economic environment.
At the summit, Xu Yanhua delivered a keynote speech entitled "Research on the Development Trend of Automobile Modernization and the Situation of Electric Vehicles", and analyzed the present situation and future development trend of new energy vehicles from four aspects: looking at the current situation through data, overall research on automobile modernization process, policy and institutional trends, and industrial opportunities and strategies.
She said that according to the available data, the negative growth of new energy vehicle sales in 20 19 is a foregone conclusion. Since July, the average monthly sales volume is only 85,000 vehicles. From the main influencing factors, the steep decline in subsidies, the slow decline in the cost of power batteries, the supply-side problem and the objective reality of the consumer side are all influencing factors.
Xu Yanhua believes that in terms of vehicle purchase cost, it will take three to five years for new energy vehicles to reach the same level as fuel vehicles. But in the short term, although the new energy BEV has no cost advantage, in the long term, with the reduction of battery cost, the new energy BEV will regain its cost advantage.
From the consumer's point of view, you can't buy new energy vehicles when you are restricted (users who can or must buy them can't, for example, there are more than 400,000 waiting lists in Beijing), and you don't have a strong willingness to buy new energy vehicles when you are not restricted (consumers don't know enough about new energy vehicles or local governments don't promote them enough). Relevant policies such as subsidies to encourage purchases and consumption have not kept up, and the innovation ability of business models is insufficient. These are all factors that affect the sales of new energy vehicles.
Xu Yanhua believes that it will take 30 years from the lead-in period to the development period of electric vehicles and the full popularization of more than 90% electrified advanced self-driving vehicles. This is caused by many objective factors, such as long industrial chain, long life cycle of automobile products and many infrastructures. She stressed that the trend of electrification is irreversible, but the transition from the introduction period to the development period still needs government support.
Xu Yanhua put forward his own views on industrial opportunities and strategies from three dimensions: vehicle, power battery and charging facilities. She believes that achieving the goal of 25% of new energy vehicles in 2025 is extremely challenging, but it is also an important development opportunity for the industry to transform from fast to good.
The following is a record of the guest speech:
Xu Yanhua: Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. At the invitation of the conference, I want to share some information about new energy vehicles with you.
There are four main aspects. First, look at the status quo through data; The second is the overall judgment on the process of automobile modernization; Third, the direction of the policy system; Four. Industrial opportunities and strategies.
Everyone knows that the data of 20 19 new energy automobile association has not yet come out, but the negative growth of new energy automobile sales is a foregone conclusion. Since July, the average monthly sales volume in five months has been 85,000. But looking at passenger cars, especially pure electric cars, is still good.
The main influencing factors are the rapid decline of subsidies, the sharp decline of central subsidies and the cancellation of land subsidies. The change of environment has made our industry, including the whole automobile industry chain, quite unsuitable. Unlike other industries, the research and development of automobile products takes a long time, because it is life-threatening and related to the safety of life and property. It takes at least two years to be an electric vehicle, including battery development verification and vehicle development verification. The most uncomfortable thing for enterprises some time ago was that the policy did not have a long-term stable expectation. Enterprises don't know how to play, how to develop products and how to improve technology. Adjusting the subsidy standard every year leads to the immature products of the last round of development, and new products have to be developed. The investment in the last round of development has not come back, and the product will be delisted, so it is difficult to reduce the cost. These are the problems accumulated in recent years, which were highlighted on 20 19 due to the sharp drop in policy subsidies.
Subsidies have dropped so much, and the cost of power batteries has not dropped very quickly, about 15%-20%. With the increase of the subsidy mileage threshold, the total cost of bicycle batteries has not decreased, which is our current problem. And the supply side. Due to the cancellation of the subsidy for cruising range below 250KM, this market accounted for a large proportion in the first two years, but it shrank sharply in 20 19, basically at 300KM. We also have a vehicle cost analysis. After removing subsidies, the cost is still higher than 20%. Because the marginal contribution of most enterprises is negative, some enterprises even have negative variable costs, so enterprises are reluctant to sell. Car companies with strong tolerance will not sell more when they complete the integral index, and some companies simply don't sell because of too many losses. In addition, the general trend of automobiles has dropped by about 10%, which is also influenced by the Sixth National Congress. The cost of traditional cars has dropped sharply, which also has an impact on the sales of new energy vehicles.
Everyone is watching what will happen in the future. Car manufacturers generally estimate that it will take about 3-5 years, the fastest 3 years, and maybe 5 years. The purchase cost of new energy vehicles is equivalent to that of fuel vehicles, depending on the cost of power batteries. The cost of power battery has dropped greatly in recent years, but according to the whole vehicle, if the cost of battery system drops to 6 gross /wh, then great efforts will be needed. There are many other factors, such as restricted cities can't buy them, non-restricted cities have no enthusiasm, relevant policies have not kept up, and other policies to encourage purchase and use are not in place.
There is also a very important factor, the use cost of electric vehicles, and the dividend of the usable value of batteries after retirement. These two dividends are not included in the car purchase. So electricity is very cheap, about one kilometer difference 10. Users do not consider this cost when purchasing, and the power battery will be retired when it is used for about 80%. However, cascade utilization and reuse are still valuable, and this value has not been calculated into the whole life cycle cost. Therefore, there should be a platform and a pool, and everyone can consider the cost of the whole life cycle of new energy vehicles.
Look at the power battery. Power battery load increased by 20% year-on-year. In the increment, pure electric passenger cars contributed the most, and the load increased by 47%, close to 50%. One (Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.) is dominant, and the pattern of two (Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and BYD) close to 70% is basically unchanged. On the whole, in 20 17, there were nearly 80 or 90 power battery enterprises, and by 20 19, there were almost 50. Charging facilities are still relatively good, and the number is also increasing. By the end of 20 19, there were more than 4 million vehicles. By the end of 20 19 and 1 1, the number of charging piles exceeded10/10,000, including nearly 500,000 public piles. The average monthly growth rate of 20 18 and 20 17 is about six or seven thousand charging piles, and the average monthly growth rate of 20 19 is 1.3 million charging piles. As you can see, with the increase of ownership, the demand for charging continues to increase, and this piece is still a blue ocean.
According to the statistics of the Charging Alliance, 67% of people have a charging pile when buying a car. Judging from the ratio of vehicles to piles, the ratio of vehicles to piles was close to 8: 1 in 20 15 years, and it became 3.4: 1 in 2009.
The industry is also booming, and the local government is also very helpful. The main body responsible for the construction of charging facilities is the local government. According to the data of 20 165438+2009 10, the total number of charging piles in five provinces and cities has exceeded 50,000, and several other major operators have also helped out. TELD, Star Charging and other enterprises have made positive contributions to the development, technical progress and quality improvement of the charging facilities industry.
Another data, for public piles, everyone is more concerned about fast charging. The average power of a single pile is increased from nearly 70 kW in 20 16 years to over 1 10 kW in 20/kloc-0+00 years, and the cost is also greatly reduced. In addition, by 20 19, 1 1, the charging capacity will be close to 5.4 billion kwh, which is expected to be around 6 billion kwh for the whole year. It is equivalent to one thousandth of the country's annual electricity consumption. I think it will be at least 5 years or 10 years later, which will have little impact on the overall electricity consumption or power supply safety.
Let's analyze what will happen to new energy vehicles in 2020. We can keep it for a longer time. From the automobile's point of view, the cycle of research and development, import, development and promotion of its new technology is very long, and it will take almost more than 20 years to truly popularize it. As an electric vehicle, such a long industrial chain involves all aspects of infrastructure, and we think it will take 30 years. What is the concept of 30 years? It has been popularized and applied since 2009. 20 19 has a market of nearly 5%. We think that after the threshold of 5%, this market is basically mature. In another 20 years, it will reach the level of popularization, that is to say, the penetration rate should reach more than 50% and the ownership should reach 40%.
Judging from the policy situation, the electrification trend is irreversible, but it is still in the transition period from the introduction period to the development period, and it still needs the support of government policies. Globally, major automobile countries and regions have accelerated electrification, increased subsidies for car purchases, and increased support for the development and industrial layout of power batteries and charging infrastructure. China adheres to the development strategy of new energy vehicles, and will soon release the industrial plan of new energy vehicles (202 1-2035). The policy system is close to perfection, and the requirements for endurance, capacity density and driving range are cancelled. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has reported the non-financial subsidy policies encouraged and used to the State Council. You can think of the basic policies mentioned. The local government has made great efforts to create an environment for the use of new energy vehicles, including vehicles running in public areas and cities, which will be replaced by electric vehicles.
From the perspective of industrial opportunities and strategies, it is challenging to achieve the goal of new energy vehicles accounting for 25% in 2025, but it is also an opportunity for the industry to turn from fast to good. In terms of vehicle, platform and series products are being developed; Higher energy efficiency, safer products and lower costs. One power supply is 6 kilometers, the other is 8 kilometers, and the cost difference is more than 20%; More products will be put on the market, and users will have more choices; In other words, electric vehicles are an important carrier of intelligent network connection and transformation to travel service providers.
In terms of power battery, the performance is further improved, and the specific energy of the system is continuously improved. To 20 19, 1 1 month, about 180 wh/kg, an increase of 30%. In addition, to improve safety and further reduce costs, there is also the problem of recovery level, which promotes the improvement of recovery rate.
In terms of charging facilities, five steps should be taken, including greatly improving the quality of charging facilities, accelerating the innovation and popularization of charging and replacing technology, improving the safe operation level of charging facilities, optimizing the layout of charging facilities, and strengthening the innovation of charging facilities operation mode. In a word, charging facilities are a blue ocean field, and both technology and application management level have made great progress in product quality and space.
This is what I share with you. Thank you.
Million car purchase subsidy