In recent two years, housing prices in most cities in Shenzhen have risen against the trend, which is particularly prominent.
Among the four first-tier cities, house prices in Beijing and Shanghai have been falling for three consecutive years, while those in Guangzhou, which is located in Greater Bay Area with Shenzhen, are also falling. Why is Shenzhen like a lone ranger, and the house price has hit record highs?
1
Shenzhen's housing price is riding the dust, and its housing price income is the first in the country.
Recently, there is a hot topic in Weibo, # Shenzhen residents' income can't keep up with the increase in house prices #, which has aroused a lot of discussion.
We saw a poll on this topic in Weibo, and the option of "don't buy, just rent" was the most popular. It can be said that this result well reflects people's buying mentality at present, and in the comments, most netizens leave messages expressing the view that "I want to buy, but I have no money and can't afford it". I guess for a moment, if there is this option, it must be the option with the most votes.
Speaking of "residents' income can't keep up with the increase in house prices" is actually an old topic. The old topic of being fried cold rice can still cause heated discussion, just because the Shenzhen property market is too eye-catching
According to the data of the last ten years, in 2008-2009, Shanghai ranked first in terms of house price, ranging from 1.4 million to 1.8 million, followed by Wenzhou from 20 10 to 201,and the house price doubled to 30,000. During the three years from 20 12 to 20 15, Beijing's housing prices ranked first. Until the middle of 20 15, Shenzhen's housing prices soared to become the first. In 20 16, Beijing surpassed Shenzhen again, and it was not until last year that Shenzhen regained the first throne.
Since the end of last year, housing prices in Shenzhen have been rising. After successfully surpassing Beijing, it became the city with the highest housing price in China, and then rode away. The sudden epidemic did not break this rapid upward trend.
However, this trend of "rising faster" (Shenzhen property market is crazy) has also been officially seen.
Not long ago, Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics released a report on the scale, structure and benefit of Guangdong's real estate development, pointing out the fact that Shenzhen's housing prices have risen too fast, and residents' income can't keep up with the increase in housing prices.
According to the data in the report, in 20 18, the ratio of house price to income in Guangzhou and Shenzhen was 12.5% and 36.3% respectively, and that in Beijing and Shanghai was 19.8% and 15.8% respectively. It can be seen that due to the rapid rise in housing prices in Shenzhen, residents' income can't keep up with the rise in housing prices, and the pressure on buyers will further increase.
The official seems to be "spitting" too!
Nowadays, the high housing prices in Shenzhen make people feel nervous but helpless. What's more, behind the rapid growth of housing prices in Shenzhen, the repressed real estate speculation has revived, and the Shenzhen property market has become particularly noisy.
I don't want to mention the obscene operation of operating loans here. However, the Shenzhen property market has come to this step today, which will make people wonder: How long can the Shenzhen property market continue to be hot?
2
The high ratio of house price to income makes the deep drift discouraged.
When it comes to buying a house, you can't avoid income, nor can you avoid the ratio of house price to income. However, high housing prices are constantly hitting the expectations of foreign residents to buy a house and settle in Shenzhen. Young people who are constantly frustrated may not really want to "move whenever they want."
The article "520" shared yesterday, young people are increasingly disgusted with buying a house. Why? "There is such a description:
The connection between houses in big cities and young people is like a clear spring. The higher the house price, the tighter the spring, and the more motivated the young people are to strive for progress. However, when the house price completely exceeds the elasticity of the spring, it is completely straightened, which means that everything collapses.
Since then, young people have become Buddhists like frustrated puppets. Because they don't understand why a basic mass consumer product that guarantees survival will be turned into an unreachable luxury by the historical torrent. As soon as the logic changes, all desires will turn into clouds and be everywhere.
I think this description vividly describes the state of young people now.
When the "Houlang" have worked hard, but still can't afford to buy a house, they can only find ways to reduce their desires to the lowest point and recognize the reality, while the post-90 s generation with optimistic genes has no choice but to find a new fulcrum in life, the so-called "poetry and distance".
This does not mean that young people have lost their dreams, but the factors of life and social environment inevitably hammer young people, especially in first-tier cities.
It is difficult to persist in the efforts without feedback, but nowadays young people seem to put all their efforts into the goal of buying a house and realize class leap as soon as possible.
If you ask, what are young people chasing after?
This is undoubtedly an open question. However, imagine that when young people no longer have to worry about rising house prices, work and entrepreneurship will become the source of power for "getting rich, poetry and distance". Then, "dreams and creativity and ……" what young people pursue will also bring about greater vitality, and they also have good reasons to refuse to accept "Buddhism".
three
Is there any income support for house prices? Where is the "deep drift"?
First of all, does the bubble exist? In the discussion about the housing price bubble, the ratio of housing price to income is the most commonly used concept. Many times, some people will use the high ratio of housing prices to income in first-tier cities as conclusive evidence of housing price bubbles.
For Shenzhen, which is recognized as the city with the highest ratio of house price to income in China, since there is such a high ratio of house price to income, does it fully prove that the house price in Shenzhen is too high and needs to be greatly reduced to meet the housing needs of ordinary citizens?
However, the reality is that Shenzhen's housing prices are very rigid, and they can't come down all the time, and there is a trend of continuing to rise!
There is a bubble in house prices!
House prices will not fall!
Does the epidemic make the bubble more rigid?
The reality is that the epidemic has hit the economy and real estate should play a role in stimulating the economy. This is also one of the reasons why the Shenzhen property market is currently noisy.
Back to the problem that "residents' income can't keep up with the increase in house prices", at present, the disparity between income and house prices is actually a general trend. This problem is not only aimed at first-tier cities such as Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen and some fast-growing second-tier cities. For most cities, the growth of residents' income can't outrun the rise of house prices.
The housing price of a city is only affected by two factors, one is the future of the city, and the other is the inflow or outflow of population.
From an economic point of view, a house is still a commodity, and the price is determined by supply and demand. At present, the ratio of housing price to income in Shenzhen is so high, but it seems so rigid.
The high ratio of house price to income in a city does not necessarily mean that the houses in that city are expensive. It is probably because that city has good growth potential, and Shenzhen accounts for both. If we only pay attention to housing prices and immediate income, we may not really understand the logic behind housing prices.
China is on the way to urbanization, in the time channel of the rapid rise of the national economy, and it is normal that the income from house prices is relatively high.
However, the current high level may be a bit too high, and the central government has also seen this problem and social contradictions. Long-term regulation is necessary, and the growth rate of house prices under regulation will certainly not always show the trend of "rapid growth" as it is now.
As far as the current ratio of house price to income is concerned, although many cities such as Shenzhen are very high, our current income level is very low compared with Tokyo and new york. However, under the background of rapid economic development in China, the expected income growth rate will be even faster in the future.
Of course, for the future trend of the economy and the property market, we should remain in awe and not be too paranoid. However, if the "after waves" are afraid now, it is too early to choose the Buddhist system at this time.