On April 8, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the key tasks of new urbanization construction in 20 19 (hereinafter referred to as "key tasks"), proposing to continue to intensify the reform of the household registration system and actively promote the settlement of agricultural transfer population who have been employed in cities and towns. According to the "Key Tasks", the household registration policy announced this time specifically involves three types of cities: Class II big cities with an urban permanent population of 654.38+0-30,000, and the restrictions on settlement should be completely abolished; I-type big cities with a permanent population of 3 million to 5 million in urban areas should fully liberalize and relax the settlement conditions and completely cancel the restrictions on the settlement of key groups; Megacities should adjust and improve the settlement policy of points, greatly increase the scale of settlement, streamline points projects, and ensure that social security payment years and residence years account for the main proportion.
The first two types of cities "completely cancel the settlement restrictions" or "completely cancel the settlement restrictions" are aimed at some groups, and * * * involves nearly 70 cities. Does this mean that it is possible for non-local registered population to buy houses directly in these cities with zero threshold in the future, thus making the purchase restriction illusory? After the "complete cancellation of settlement restrictions" has landed, how to avoid a new wave of property market price increases in some hot cities?
59 cities ushered in "zero threshold settlement"
The household registration reform policy promoted by Key Tasks has many bright spots. One of the highlights is that type II big cities with urban permanent population of1-30,000 should "completely cancel the settlement restrictions", which means that these cities will completely cancel the settlement restrictions in the future and enter the "zero threshold settlement era".
There is a specific list of II-type big cities with a permanent population of 6.5438+0 million to 3 million. According to the Statistical Yearbook of Urban Construction 20 17 newly published by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of People's Republic of China (PRC) and China on October 24th, 20 19, there are 59 "second-class big cities with urban permanent population 1 10,000 to 3 million", among which there is no threshold for settlement.
The reporter noted that Shijiazhuang completely canceled the settlement restrictions as soon as possible. In March, before the publication of "Key Work", Shijiazhuang had issued a document to fully liberalize the household registration system, and you can "settle down at zero threshold" with your household registration book and ID card. It can be predicted that with the issuance of key tasks, more provincial capitals will follow suit.
Previously, small and medium-sized cities and towns with a permanent population of 6.5438+0 million in urban areas have gradually lifted the restrictions on settlement. Will the same city completely cancel the restrictions on settlement, which will be more attractive to the non-registered population? Academic views are not consistent.
"According to the objective law of urbanization development and the ability, capacity and willingness of cities to absorb rural migrants, it is not these cities with a population of1-30,000 that are attractive, but the big cities with a population of more than 5 million are more attractive. After all, these cities have good guarantee conditions in education and medical care, and their absorption capacity will be stronger. I suggest that such cities should be fully liberalized; Only in the past, cities with a population of 6.5438+0 million to 3 million generally set a relatively high threshold for settlement. The current policy is to explicitly require these cities to lower their settlement standards. " Shen Chi, deputy director of the Center for Urban and Small Town Reform and Development of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in an interview with China Economic Weekly.
There are also different views. Sun Jiuwen, member of the Expert Advisory Committee of the Leading Group for Poverty Alleviation and Development of the State Council and director of the Institute of Regional and Urban Economics of Renmin University of China, told the reporter of China Economic Weekly that a city with a population of1-3 million is the most potential city in China in the future. These cities are numerous, not as scattered as small cities, and have a certain agglomeration effect; Moreover, there are no serious urban diseases in megacities such as Beijing and Shanghai. "If we can further improve the quality and service level of these cities, instead of deliberately increasing the population for the sake of increasing the population, increasing the population is only an auxiliary means. We should start with improving the quality of cities and build these cities well. "
10 cities have relaxed their settlement conditions, and the role of household registration has weakened due to the war of grabbing people.
Another highlight of "Key Tasks" is that I-type big cities with a permanent population of 3-5 million in urban areas should relax their settlement conditions and cancel the restrictions on the settlement of key groups.
The 2065,438+00 Statistical Yearbook of Urban Construction includes 10 * * Xi, Dalian, Changchun, Harbin, Hangzhou, Jinan, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Kunming and An, including Zhengzhou, Xi 'an and other national central cities, as well as the current national central cities.
According to the document, the above-mentioned 10 city will "fully liberalize and relax the settlement conditions". Literally, this expression is obviously slightly smaller than the scale of "completely canceling the restrictions on settlement" in type II big cities, but the key point is that type I big cities will "cancel the restrictions on the settlement of key groups".
Who is the "key group"? The relevant person in charge of the Planning Department of the National Development and Reform Commission said recently that the key groups refer to the new generation of migrant workers who work and live stably in cities and towns, the agricultural transfer population who have worked and lived in cities and towns for more than five years and moved with their families, and the rural student population who went to school and joined the army to enter cities and towns.
It is worth noting that these I-type big cities have been the most active in the "war of grabbing people" since 20 18. Sun Jiuwen told China Economic Weekly that the reason why these cities take the initiative to "rob people" is related to the development goals of these cities at a higher level. "These cities hope to attract some higher-level talents, but they also hope to attract more young workers, which is conducive to the development of the cities themselves."
An important message revealed by this "Key Work" is that a large number of large cities have liberalized their household registration, a large number of cities have "zero threshold to settle down", and some high-quality resource cities have liberalized their settlement restrictions. When these cities open their doors, the value of household registration, especially the weight of attracting talents, will inevitably be greatly reduced.
"In the future population battle, household registration is no longer an important magic weapon to attract talents. Because in addition to the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, many big cities have relaxed the threshold for settlement. Therefore, in the war of grabbing people, household registration chips are not the most important. " Sun Jiuwen said.
Does liberalizing the household registration order affect the purchase restriction?
The reporter combed 59 second-class big cities and found that at least 13 cities have issued purchase restriction policies. 10 I-type big cities have all introduced purchase restriction policies without exception. These purchase restriction policies generally stipulate that foreigners need to pay 1-5 years social security or individual tax when buying a house in these places.
The data shows that the China real estate market, with limited purchase threshold, is cooling down in an all-round way. According to the sales data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, during the period of 20 19, the sales area of commercial housing in China decreased by 3.6%, and in February it was 10.6%.
Nowadays, the policy of completely canceling or liberalizing the settlement restrictions seems to be a timely rain for China real estate. Think about it. Since then, foreigners can easily buy houses in these 69 cities. Will this make property buyers have a false reputation? Will there be a new wave of price increases in the property market?
"When policies and population attack together and flock to cities, it is not ruled out that there will be a new round of undercurrent in the property market, and house prices will be tested because of these new driving forces. However, no matter how the household registration system is changed and how urbanization is promoted, the position that' houses are for living, not for speculation' cannot be shaken. This is the overall requirement for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. " Sun Jiuwen said.
In order to prevent investment speculators from taking the opportunity to exploit the loopholes, People's Daily recently published an article saying that when decomposing the key tasks of urbanization, it is necessary to prevent housing prices from skyrocketing and plunging as a prerequisite, resolutely avoid investment speculators taking the opportunity to exploit the loopholes, and at the same time constantly refine the policies of restricting purchases, sales and prices to meet the rigid and improving needs.
Ni Pengfei, director of the Center for Urban and Competitive Research of China Academy of Social Sciences, said that with the implementation of relevant policies, population mobility will generally gather in and around the metropolis, which may have a certain impact on regional housing prices. He suggested paying attention to two issues: first, increasing the supply of housing construction land while liberalizing household registration; The second is to do a good job in regulating the real estate market and prevent speculation.
(Source: China Economic Weekly)