Thirdly, a comparative data of working population between China and the United States:
Another map of population distribution in China, the United States and Japan:
Pushing forward 20 years, does the population map of China look like Japanese?
Then go to the map of new house sales and old house sales in the United States: (both are annualized data, in thousands)
Then there is the national commercial housing sales curve (the unit is 10,000 square meters, and the data only counts new houses, excluding second-hand houses).
Sales volume of commercial housing (unit: 100 million yuan)
Doesn't this photo look like the ceiling? Is it different from the top of any K-line chart you see? In my opinion, it is not only overshooting, but also seriously overshooting, overdrawing future demand.
Pay attention to the decline in residential sales in 20 14, which is the inflection point I mentioned on the demographic chart above. This is the first time since 1987 has statistical data that real estate sales have declined due to non-external factors (the decline in 2008 was caused by the subprime mortgage crisis, not counting that time). It is reasonable to believe that the internal inflection point of China Real Estate is 20 14. Since the internal strength has turned, why did 20 15 and 20 16 skyrocket? Because Li gave Viagra to the housing market, except for the first-tier cities, others completely relaxed and even encouraged everyone to buy a house. Therefore, driven by the human nature of the masses, it is easy to complete this process of self-reinforcement and self-realization. This surge is almost the same as the 20 15 stock market surge, without the support of economic fundamentals. But viagra can't eat it. Finally, go to Japan's house price trend chart:
Finally, go to Japan's house price trend chart:
Is the increase in this metropolitan area similar to that in China? Tokyo and Osaka saw the biggest gains. China is also the fastest rising city in Beijing and Shenzhen.
Many people like to say that China and China are different, but in my opinion, in Japan, Hongkong and Taiwan Province Province, the same routine, almost the same routine. Japan, in particular, almost overlaps with China by 90%. Nowadays, China enterprises are buying all over the world, housing prices in Beijing and Shenzhen are soaring, and the China government is cutting interest rates to stimulate the public. The masses firmly believe that Beijing's housing prices will never fall, and then the 20 15 stock market bubble burst, and the housing market continued to soar, almost exactly like Japan. Why can't I see the difference? I remember something different. The Japanese economy is not as planned as China is now, but the trend is similar. What does this mean?
At present, the per capita GDP of the United States is $57,263, while that of China is $865,438+0.25.
The per capita disposable income of the United States is $39,247, and that of China in 20 16 is $3,452.
At present, the median (not average) sales of the latest issue of each new house in the United States are 17 and19,000 US dollars, equivalent to 2159,000 yuan.
What is the average area of each new house in America? According to my online news, the data is 233 square meters, but I have no official authoritative source for the time being. It is equivalent to 9266 yuan per square meter.
/kloc-the median sales of old houses in the United States in 0/6 years was $233,800, equivalent to RMB 1613,000 yuan.
I don't know the national median sales of new houses. I don't have the data source, but the average price in 2065438+2006 is about 7200 per square meter.
After reading it yourself, what stage do you think the real estate market in China is in?
Let me talk about human nature again. Being a stock trader is inseparable from human nature. One of the characteristics of China people is that they love to follow the trend and are gambling. Therefore, whether in mainland China, Hongkong or Taiwan Province Province, there have been incredible bubbles and bubbles burst. Rushing up is always particularly urgent and cruel. Therefore, in the Chinese world, the process of self-realization and self-reinforcement is always steep. But when the trend reverses, it will be just as steep.
Based on the data, many people tend to think that there are more stupid people to take over, but with the habit that China people like to follow the trend, when everyone is discussing it every day, they are already the stupidest. The stock market crash of 15 is like this. Many people simply judge that there are a lot of fools taking over just because the market value of China's stock accounts for a very low proportion of family assets. In fact, even when grandmothers began to discuss stocks, they were already the stupidest themselves, and they couldn't find anything more stupid.
At present, the whole people are talking about the housing market, and grandma and grandpa are discussing it enthusiastically every day. Sillier and richer takers, where can they take over in the future? How many people are there? Can they pass?
In fact, those who rush in now are the stupidest, but they are forced by the government. These most stupid people can't buy a house, and they are very anxious, which leads to the process being artificially extended a lot, that's all. If the government is completely liberalized, this process will soon end, which is the last peak of the 15 stock market. Volume and price skyrocket at the same time, and the final peak stage will be steep. Finally, it will explode with a bang, and then it will enter the stage of ecstasy reverse cycle, start self-strengthening and realize itself in reverse. The collapse of the Japanese housing market 19 1 will be repeated again. This will be the most wonderful human performance that everyone can see. In the end, there will be countless wonderful stories of joys and sorrows. Compared with this performance, the stock market crashes in 2008 and 20 15 were just children's games.
Unfortunately, it is not! With the Japanese lighthouse 199 1 years ago, the China municipal government was far more alert to the housing bubble than the stock market, and it only reached its climax for a while. China's government forced its hand, not only quickly, but also forcefully. Even with such efforts, it is still out of control. At least in the first three months of this year, the human nature of the masses overcame the government's regulation, so the government increased its regulation. I wonder what will happen in the future.
This is the ultimate confrontation between the unprecedented powerful government and the unprecedented powerful people's humanity. Let's hold our breath and watch the end of this ultimate confrontation.
One of the great defects of human nature is that it likes to predict the future according to its short history. At present, 99.99% of China people predict that the economy of China will continue to take off in the next 20 years based on the history of the past 20 years. Question, is this possible? Trees can't rise to the sky.
My conclusion is that the government may be able to control the price, but it is unable to control the sales volume at the same time, so it is inevitable that the sales volume in the future will fall like a cliff after 2005 in the United States. There is a certain probability that the sales volume will not fall or even continue to rise for two years. After all, it was suppressed by the government this time, but the probability of maintaining it for five years is really small.
Having said that, even with the strength of China government, the future government can only control one of them, either giving up sales or giving up house prices. Or it failed to control the same and was completely defeated by the human nature of the public. But in either case, my prediction of China's economic difficulties in the next 2-4 years will hold.
In addition, I have an idea that there is a bubble in real estate not only in China, but all over the world, including the United States, because the unprecedented relaxed environment will inevitably bring about a bubble. Buffett chose to sell this year, although it is a trivial matter, but it may not be without his reason. His last sale was in 2005.
With the global water release, the number of rich people in China has soared, and this increase in China is enough to stir up the global housing market. It is a balance, and a 5% increase in demand can make it go to heaven, and vice versa. And China in 2007, all the commodity prices in the world were raised to the sky. It's the same reason that oil prices plummeted and soared. This time, there is an additional global water release. In the future, house prices will fall, and maybe the whole world will fall, just as the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has led to a decline in global house prices. The earthquake source may be China. But it is hard to say that the China government is so close to the real estate bubble, and the result is unpredictable.
In addition, answer a question, why am I bearish on the real estate market in the next 2-4 years, but still hold 6 real estate stocks? The reason is what Soros said, identify the illusion, join in, and quit before the illusion is recognized by the masses. Now the masses have not recognized the illusion, and when it is too high to find the north, of course I will follow the trend and dance with them, and it will take a long time for this illusion to be seen through under the suppression of such a strong planned economy by the government. Another reason is that real estate stocks in Hong Kong are statically undervalued.
Finally, I said that the next few years will not be this year, and this year may be a record high (if the government does not increase regulation). When I say the next few years, I mean the next 2-4 years.