Zhang Hongwei, director of the same policy consulting and research department, believes that the restrictions on purchases in the first-and second-tier markets and the rise in land prices have led to the third-and fourth-tier cities becoming the sites for housing enterprises to compete for last year. Some third-and fourth-tier cities in the east are related to the heat of land transfer.
According to the data of the same policy consulting and research department, the land price of residential land sold nationwide in 20 16 was 2088 yuan/square meter, which was 47% higher than that in 20 15. The floor price rose significantly: first-tier cities 16578 yuan/square meter, up 44%; Second-tier cities 4 192 yuan/square meter, up 85%; Third-and fourth-tier cities were 976 yuan/square meter, up 2 1%.
By February this year, the national residential land price was 2609 yuan/square meter, up 7% from the previous month and 7 1% from the same period last year.
Zhang Hongwei believes that the growth of land revenue should be compared with the same period last year. If the base last year is low, it may be normal growth. From the second half of last year to the beginning of the year, there were ten cities with very good property market; In the second half of last year, the market began to spread to about 20 cities, and structural changes may be the main reason for the increase in land price income.
36. Behind1%:Structural changes in the land market
20 16 The recovery of the land market probably began in May. The steady rise of housing prices in first-tier cities, the introduction of sufficient population, scarce land resources and favorable urban planning have led many housing enterprises to flood into first-tier cities to compete for land, and even "flour is more expensive than bread", and housing enterprises are also diligent in managing their families.
At the same time, second-tier cities are divided. The transaction volume of land in some popular cities is almost the same as that in first-tier cities, while the prices in third-and fourth-tier cities are generally low. Although the fundamentals have improved and local governments have actively pushed the land, the transaction price has continued to be sluggish, generally at the reserve price or low premium.
A real estate investor revealed that at the beginning of 20 16, the company took land in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Hefei, Nanjing and Suzhou. By the second half of 20 16, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Fuzhou, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Jinan, Chengdu, Qingdao, Nanchang and Shijiazhuang were added. "Hot cities are constantly emerging, and the cycles of cities are staggered, but they are all in the rising cycle".
Within a year, hot cities seem to ignite the market by relay, from about 10 last year to about 16 in the second half of last year, and now there are about 20. A person related to Fujian real estate enterprises believes that the increase in land prices at the beginning of this year is only a short-term "noise". At present, many companies in the industry have leveled the national market. To a certain extent, it is "not grasping the key points and casting a wide net". In the future, housing prices in cities will gradually become balanced according to urban order and market size.
20 17 In February, 36 second-tier cities monitored by a third-party agency * * * sold 2 14 homesteads, with a total area of 9.79 million square meters, with a decrease of 33% from the previous month and an increase of 28% year-on-year; The land price of the transaction floor was 5 193 yuan/m2, up 36 percentage points from the previous month.
Recently, many housing enterprises have clearly looked for land cooperation opportunities in various places, which is also based on the logic of the spread of hot cities.
The spread of hot cities, especially the rise of land prices in third-and fourth-tier cities, became the main driving force for the soaring land price income at the beginning of the year.
From the perspective of floor land price, the average floor land price of third-and fourth-tier cities in 20 16 was 753 yuan/square meter, up 15% from the previous year, the highest since 20 10. From the level of premium rate, the premium rate of commercial plots in third-and fourth-tier cities has remained below 10% since 20 12 years, and it was 6% in 20 15 years, which was the same as that in 20 14 years, but in 20 16 years,
20 1 1 zhonggundam 13%.
For another example, 63 plots were sold in Xuzhou, with a construction land area of 3155,400 square meters, which is ahead of other cities in both the number of plots and the construction land area. In addition to Xuzhou, Weihai clinched a deal in February with a homestead construction land area of1.576,5438+0.900 square meters, which is another third-and fourth-tier city with a transaction area of over one million square meters.
Shao, the project director of the data research and development department of Shanghai Urban Real Estate Appraisal Co., Ltd. pointed out that although the land transactions in various cities declined to a certain extent in June 5438-February due to fewer traditional Spring Festival factors, it can be seen that the fluctuations in third-and fourth-tier cities are small, and the land market in second-tier cities has cooled down more.
Hot urban sprawl
From the historical trend, the land price of residential land in first-tier cities has shown a great upward trend since 20 12 years, and the increase ranges in 20 12 years, 20 13 years and 20 14 years are 15% and 6/kloc-0 respectively.
The increase in second-tier cities is more obvious. Shao pointed out that regardless of second-tier cities or third-and fourth-tier cities, the overall performance of the land market is still significantly better than the same period last year. Judging from the transaction price, the housing prices in second-tier cities are amazing, and the floor price and the month-on-month increase have both reached record highs. It can be seen that the cooling of the first-tier land market has an obvious pulling effect on second-tier cities. In the third-and fourth-tier cities, affected by the loose monetary policy and the local government's policy of supporting the market, the land market as a whole stabilized.
In 20 16 years, there were 339 homestead transactions in Chongqing, with a total transaction area of19.37 million square meters, which was ahead of other second-tier cities in both plot area and plot area. But in terms of floor land price, Xiamen ranks first with an average floor land price of 2876 1 yuan /m2. The person in charge of a local real estate enterprise with a project for sale pointed out that the rise in land prices indirectly contributed to the current housing price increase in Xiamen.
Judging from the premium situation of cities, among the 35 cities with homestead transactions, 33 cities have homestead premium, with an average premium rate of 58%, of which Hefei premium rate is as high as 227%. In addition, the premium rates of Wuhan, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Fuzhou, Jinan, Nanning, Tianjin and Nanjing all exceeded 50%.
According to the statistics of the same policy consulting and research department, in 20 16, Weifang ranked first in third-and fourth-tier cities with 362 homesteads, 14 1400 square meters, becoming the only third-and fourth-tier city with a transaction area of 10 million.
In the past year, high-priced land frequently appeared in Hefei land market. 20 16 In the first three quarters, there were 134 land transactions in nine districts, four counties and one city, up 35.4% year-on-year, and the total land transaction area was1/055 mu, up 26% year-on-year, totaling 1655 mu.
Since March, many cities have started to restrict purchases and upgrade, including Hangzhou, Jiashan and Qingdao, but there are still some cities where the property market is obviously overheated. The above-mentioned insiders believe that under the current situation of the spread of hot cities, the intensive introduction of "patch" measures and a new round of regulation and upgrading will also be a high probability event.