Wen Shu Zhanghang
By about 9: 00 a.m. on March 27th, COVID-19's cases were confirmed in the United States, with 8 1626 cases dead 120 1 case and 680 cases cured. Among them, from March 23 to 26, the number of people diagnosed in these three days exceeded 10,000.
At present, at least 18 states in the United States require people to stay at home as much as possible and stop unnecessary business activities. The population of these States accounts for nearly half of the total population of the United States.
In response to the huge economic impact caused by the epidemic, the Federal Reserve has been "fully fired" in recent days, not only reducing interest rates to near zero, but also opening an "unlimited" quantitative easing model, and also using a number of coping tools during the 2008 financial crisis to inject liquidity into the financial system and the real economy.
On the other hand, after a heated debate, the White House and Congress have reached an agreement on an economic stimulus plan of up to $2 trillion. On March 25th, the US Senate voted 96-0. Next, the bill will be voted in the House of Representatives on the 27th local time, and then submitted to the White House for Trump to sign. Trump told the media on Wednesday that he would sign it as soon as possible.
This is the largest economic aid plan ever passed by the US Congress, including $500 billion to aid industries hit by the epidemic, $500 billion to distribute cash checks to American families, and each family is expected to receive a subsidy of up to $3,000.
In addition, $350 billion will be used to provide loans to small businesses, $250 billion will be used to expand unemployment assistance, and at least $654.38 billion will be used to support hospitals and health systems in fighting the epidemic.
It is worth noting that in a video speech on 25th, WTO Director-General Azevedo called on countries to adopt global solutions to the sharp decline of global trade caused by the epidemic.
He said that WTO economists are analyzing the consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic and will publish their research results and trade forecasts for 2020 and 20021year. Although there are still a few weeks before the release of the report, Azevedo said that according to the latest forecast, the economic recession and unemployment will be more serious than during the global financial crisis 12 years ago, and WTO economists predict that trade will decline seriously.
In this context, American cars are certainly not immune. With the suspension of production of car companies represented by Detroit Big Three and Tesla, the global auto industry has been further hit hard.
Although this week, as the US government's $2 trillion rescue plan is about to land, the US stock market has rebounded strongly after four blows in ten days, and auto stocks have also soared. However, this tonic is still difficult to save the American auto market in crisis.
The rescue is in action.
Last week, on March 18, Detroit auto giants General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler, which accounted for 44% of American car sales, announced that they would stop production until the end of the month, and the time for resuming work was to be determined. Tesla also announced the next day that it would temporarily stop production at its factory in fremont, California and a factory in new york from March 23rd.
/kloc-On the evening of March, 2008, Toyota, Nissan and Honda, the three major Japanese car companies, announced that they would stop production in the United States or North America. It is understood that Toyota will close all automobile and parts factories in the United States, Canada and Mexico for two days from the 23rd. Nissan will suspend production in the United States from the 20th of this month to the 6th of April. Honda requested that the North American 12 factory be shut down for 6 days from 23rd.
According to foreign media reports, on June 5438+09, Volkswagen said it would suspend production at the assembly plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, until March 29.
Daimler also announced that its factories in Tuscaloosa, Alabama and Charleston, South Carolina will be shut down for two weeks from March 24th. BMW's SUV factory in South Carolina will also stop production on April 3 due to the epidemic.
At this point, under the epidemic, after the major European car companies stopped production, the North American market also ushered in a comprehensive emergency brake.
IHS？ Markit？ A new study predicts that the closure of automobile factories in Europe, North America and Latin America may reduce automobile production by 6.5438+0.4 million. According to it, in Europe, the assembly business is closed for an average of 65,438+03 working days, which will reduce the automobile production by more than 880,000 vehicles. According to its estimation, the suspension of production in North America will cause an average loss of 6 working days and reduce the production of 480,000 vehicles.
Analysts pointed out that at present, about 95% of the automobile factories in the United States are closed, affecting 654.38+65 million workers. It is expected that the automobile sales in the United States will drop by 90% in March.
The Capital Market of Royal Bank of Canada also indicated that the global automobile production may decrease by 65,438+06% in 2020 due to the influence of coronavirus, partly due to the expected decrease of 20% in American automobile sales.
As the possible time of production interruption becomes longer, the loss of production will bring direct cash shortage to automobile manufacturers.
Ford Motor Company 19 said that the company will use credit lines and suspend dividends to support its balance sheet. It is understood that the auto giant has informed its lenders that it will make full use of two credit lines, including a corporate credit arrangement of $654.38+03.4 billion and a supplementary credit arrangement of $2 billion. Ford Motor Company will also suspend dividend payment to improve its financial flexibility in the short term.
Recently, the American auto industry is communicating with the government to save the market. The Automobile Innovation Alliance and the Automobile and Equipment Manufacturers Association (MEMA), which represent the automobile companies such as General Motors, Volkswagen, BMW and Toyota, request Congress to formulate a "manufacturing emergency assistance" appropriation plan to keep employment opportunities and prevent the bankruptcy of important manufacturing industries. They hope to have a sound credit arrangement to provide loans and loan guarantees for large employers, medium-sized manufacturing owners and small enterprises to ensure the "sufficient liquidity" of the automobile industry.
Relevant groups also asked US lawmakers to consider new tax relief measures and postpone the entry into force of the American Institute of Management Certification's North American New Trade Agreement on June 1 day. Automakers warned that the fast approaching date brought them excessive compliance pressure because the agreement required them to abide by the new rules of origin.
The US government is preparing to rescue the market. Affected by the news that Congress and the White House will soon reach an agreement to inject nearly $2 trillion into the economy ravaged by coronavirus, on March 24th, the Jones index closed up 2 1 13 points, or1.37%, and recovered 20,000 points. Judging from the percentage increase, the Dow Jones index hit its biggest one-day increase since 1933.
American auto stocks also rose collectively. Among Detroit's Big Three, Ford Motor Company rose by more than 23%, General Motors by more than 65,438+09% and Fiat Chrysler by more than 65,438+00%. Tesla also rose more than 16%, and its share price regained the $500 mark.
China's "safe haven" does not exist.
The appeal of American auto companies to stop production and rescue the market under the spread of the epidemic has just been staged in China auto market, and it is not even over yet. Although enterprises in Hubei, the center of the epidemic, have resumed work for nearly half a month, it will take time for production to resume as usual. As early as the beginning of the outbreak, there was industry reflection. In the choice of supply chain, most enterprises lack planning? B consideration, so that into production difficulties. Now some enterprises are shifting the production of parts.
According to Reuters's March 16 report, an automobile supplier has transferred the parts production of Mazda Motor Company from China to Guanajuato in central Mexico. In order to cope with the shortage of parts produced in China for exterior decoration of Mazda 3 and CX-30 models, automobile suppliers increased the output of parts in Mexican factories by 50% and airlifted the products to Mazda's Japanese assembly line.
An insider of Mazda said that the relatively low sales volume and standardized design and production mode gave Mazda and its suppliers greater flexibility when considering the transfer of production plans. In order to reduce costs, Mazda has been committed to enjoying as many parts as possible in its product lineup for many years.
A spokeswoman for Koito, the world's largest automobile lighting manufacturer, also said that although the company has resumed part of its business in China, it plans to transfer part of its production to other places to meet export orders, and is currently discussing relevant arrangements with customers.
For big car manufacturers, they need more parts. Therefore, you may find that your options are reduced when the local supply is interrupted by the epidemic. Although it is estimated that it will take several months for China's manufacturing output to return to normal, the problems of time and cost mean that other suppliers will not be keen to emulate those of Koito and Mazda.
Take Tesla, which is accelerating its localization, it is also facing difficulties. Unlike the decline in sales of the Detroit Big Three, Model? Y began to be delivered in North America, and the production capacity of the Shanghai factory increased steadily. Tesla's plan of 500,000 sales this year is moving towards reality step by step.
However, with the closure of the fremont factory, which can produce all Tesla products, the importance of the Shanghai factory is highlighted. According to Tesla Q3 last year? Financial report, comparing American factory and Shanghai factory model? The production cost (capital expenditure per unit capacity) of the production line has been reduced by 65%. At the same time, with the improvement of localization rate of parts, the reduction of cost will further increase the sales of models. The Easy Car Research Institute also pointed out in a report in February this year that once Tesla Model? Being ahead of others will have an impact on the main products such as Audi A4L, mercedes benz c Class and BMW 3 Series, and the impact effect will be seen in 2020. The strategic adjustment and product optimization of Audi, Mercedes-Benz and BMW are almost impossible to achieve this year, and there is almost no defense in the short term.
But at present, a large part of parts still need to be imported. Even if Tesla Shanghai factory wants to realize 100% local procurement of parts, it still cannot be separated from the global parts supply chain system.
As the epidemic spread to many countries, the supply chain was hit and everything became unknown.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.