At the the State Council executive meeting held on the 22nd, a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy was fully implemented, and the foundation for economic stabilization was consolidated. Decided to send a supervision working group to the local area to promote the effective implementation of the policies and measures that have been issued in the early stage. Among them, it is specifically mentioned that "timely and appropriate use of monetary policy tools such as RRR interest rate cuts to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity".
The recent steady growth policy has been continuously strengthened and implemented. The Investment Department of the National Development and Reform Commission recently held a video scheduling work conference for some provincial-level fund projects to urge and guide local governments to promote the signing of policy-oriented financial instruments, speed up construction and form more physical workload as soon as possible.
A few days ago, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission jointly issued the Notice on Consolidating the Rising Momentum and Strengthening the Industrial Economy (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), proposing 17 policy measures, paying more attention to tapping the incremental policy space, accurately strengthening weak links, and mobilizing local, industrial, enterprise and other forces to "raise wages and accumulate strength" to enhance the momentum of a stable industrial economy recovery.
According to the analysis of many experts, since June, 5438+00, affected by repeated epidemics, declining external demand and depressed real estate, the economy has continued to recover, but the foundation is not stable. The National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) pointed out that it is a "critical moment" to consolidate the foundation of economic recovery, and made it clear that the policy of steady growth during the year will continue to exert its strength to help the economic recovery in the fourth quarter. RRR reduction, as one of the policy tools, will provide a suitable liquidity environment for consolidating the trend of economic stabilization and recovery and doing a good job in economic work at the end of the year. It is expected that the possibility of RRR reduction in June 5438+February will increase.
Timely and appropriate use of monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction.
The executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that it is necessary to thoroughly implement a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, keep the economy running in a reasonable range, and strive to achieve better results. In the early stage, fiscal and financial policies were introduced to support major project construction and equipment renovation. The policy effect is emerging and there is still great potential. At the same time, there are differences in local conditions, and some of them are still not in place, so we should continue to pay close attention to implementation.
Before the end of June, all supervision teams in the State Council went to relevant places to supervise the implementation of a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, provide necessary services and help, listen carefully to the situation reflected by local governments, and coordinate and solve the difficulties and problems in policy implementation. For areas and fields where the progress of major project construction and equipment transformation is slow, it is necessary to find out the problems and reasons and take corresponding measures.
The National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) put forward six measures, including speeding up the construction of major projects, speeding up the upgrading of equipment, stabilizing and expanding consumption, continuously ensuring the smooth flow of transportation and logistics, increasing financial support for the real economy, and effectively ensuring basic people's livelihood.
In terms of increasing financial support for the real economy, the meeting proposed to guide banks to moderately let Lipuihui make small and micro-stock loans, continue to do a good job in transportation, logistics and financial services, increase support for private enterprises to issue bonds, and use monetary policy tools such as RRR interest rate cuts in a timely and appropriate manner to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity.
Pang Ming, chief economist and research director of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, told CBN that the Bank of China can further consolidate and expand the upward trend of economic stabilization through incremental operation of aggregate tools, considering that there is relatively limited room for future interest rate cuts to stimulate demand. When necessary, more measures will be taken, such as reducing RRR, especially reducing the deposit reserve ratio, to release medium-and long-term liquidity and ensure the support of money and credit to the real economy, so as to more effectively support market players and the housing sector, as well as key areas and weak links.
The the State Council Standing Committee specifically mentioned the real estate market: "Implement the policy of supporting rigid and improved housing demand due to the city, and guide local governments to strengthen policy propaganda and interpretation. Promote the landing of special loans for Baojiao Building as soon as possible, encourage commercial banks to issue new loans for Baojiao Building, and speed up project construction and delivery. Efforts will be made to improve the assets and liabilities of the real estate industry and promote the healthy development of the real estate market. "
Ming Ming, chief FICC analyst of CITIC Securities, analyzed that recently, the "second arrow" financing support tools for private enterprises have been postponed and expanded, and all-credit and all-real-estate policies such as "Finance 16" supporting real estate have been introduced in a centralized manner. The first meeting was to continue the policy stance that "financial 16" insurance projects should also protect the main body, emphasizing the landing of mortgage loans; Second, in view of the expansion of the "second arrow" tool, it is mentioned that "increasing support for private enterprises to issue bonds", and it is expected that the pace of subsequent wide credit repair is expected to accelerate.
On 23rd, three state-owned banks, Bank of Communications (60 1328), Bank of China (60 1988) and Agricultural Bank of China (60 1288), successively announced the establishment of strategic cooperative relations with high-quality real estate enterprises to play the role of "head geese" and keep the real estate financing stable and orderly. On the same day, China Bond Promotion Company issued credit enhancement letters to three private housing enterprises, namely Longhu Group, Midea Real Estate and Hui Jin Group, under the policy framework of bond financing support tools for private enterprises, and planned to support the three enterprises to issue the first batch of medium-term notes of RMB 2 billion, RMB 654.38+0.5 billion and RMB 654.38+0.2 billion respectively. On 24th, China Industrial and Commercial Bank (60 1398) and China Construction Bank (60 1939) also signed cooperation agreements with housing enterprises, among which the former intends to provide intentional financing support of more than 650 billion yuan.
Promote major projects and speed up construction.
The construction of major projects is an important starting point for steady investment and growth. The State Council executive meeting proposed to speed up the construction of major projects. At present, two batches of financial instruments support more than 2,700 major projects, and the operating rate exceeds 90%. The coordination mechanism of important projects should continue to operate efficiently, promote the accelerated payment and construction of project funds, drive social capital investment including private enterprises, and form more physical workload during the year. Inform the places where promises are not fulfilled within the time limit, and adjust the projects that really cannot be started on schedule. Strengthen supervision and create a clean project and a quality and safety project.
Recently, the Investment Department of the National Development and Reform Commission said at the above-mentioned working meeting that the main task at present is to shift the focus of work from improving the efficiency of examination and approval and speeding up investment to strengthening factor guarantee, doing a good job in financing, speeding up project construction and strengthening the guidance of local coordination mechanisms, and strive to form more physical workload in the fourth quarter.
At the end of July, the State Council deployed policy-oriented development financial instruments to increase financing support for major projects. At present, 739.9 billion yuan of financial instruments have been fully invested, and most of the supporting projects have started construction, which is accelerating the formation of physical workload.
Meng Wei, spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference earlier that from June 5438+0 to June 5438+00, the national fixed asset investment increased by 5.8%, the real estate investment declined, and the infrastructure investment continued to exert its strength. From June/KLOC-0 to June 1 0, the investment in manufacturing industry increased by 8.7%.
In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission requires to continue to strengthen tracking and dispatching, urge and guide local governments to implement the introduced factor guarantee policies, coordinate and solve difficult problems in the examination and approval procedures, and effectively accelerate the progress of capital project construction and capital payment. Relevant departments should further strengthen supervision and management, scientifically and rationally arrange projects, implement construction conditions, and ensure that all work can stand the test of history. At the same time, do a good job in project reserve and pre-project work to lay a good foundation for expanding effective investment next year.
Revitalize the industrial economy.
Industry is the main body and engine of economic growth, and invigorating the industrial economy is a solid support for stabilizing the economic market. Since the beginning of this year, with the joint efforts of all parties, the downward trend of the industrial economy has been reversed, and the trend of recovery has continued in the third quarter, which has strongly supported the stabilization and recovery of the national economy. However, due to many external uncertainties and unstable factors, the main indicators of industrial economy fluctuated slightly in June 5438+ 10, and the foundation for sustained recovery still needs to be further stabilized.
On June165438+1October 2 1, the new vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said at the national video conference on strengthening industrial economic work that industrial economic stability should be placed in a more prominent position, and efforts should be made to expand demand, promote circulation, help enterprises, strengthen kinetic energy and stabilize expectations to ensure that the industrial economy operates in a reasonable range in the fourth quarter of this year, 2023.
"The next step is to put forward the target requirements for different types of regions, industries and enterprises and compact the main responsibility. In particular, major industrial provinces, key industries and large enterprises should take the lead and play a key supporting role in steady growth. " New Guo Bin said.
On the same day, the Notice jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three ministries and commissions put forward 17 specific measures from five aspects: consolidating the foundation of industrial economy stabilization, strengthening the stable development of key industries with separate policies, promoting the coordinated development of industrial economies in various regions with separate policies, and continuously improving the vitality of enterprises with separate policies.
The "Notice" proposes that on the demand side, efforts should be made to boost consumption, promote investment, stabilize exports and smooth the economic cycle; On the supply side, in view of structural constraints such as "stuck neck" in key links and insufficient support for new growth points, efforts are made to promote strong chains and accelerate the cultivation of new kinetic energy.
Liu Wenqiang, secretary of the Party Committee of China Electronic and Information Industry Development Research Institute, said that since March, in order to cope with the influence of multiple factors, China has stepped up the implementation of macro policies and promoted the implementation of relevant supporting policies and implementation rules as soon as possible. Facts have proved that the combination effect of policy superposition has been continuously released, which has effectively promoted industrial stabilization. At present, in order to speed up the recovery of industrial economy, it is necessary to closely link the various policies and measures that have been introduced to stabilize growth, maintain the continuity and stability of policies, and focus on key areas and weak links to make precise efforts.
Fu Baozong, director of the Industrial Office of the Industrial Research Institute of China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said that with the implementation of various policies and measures to stabilize the economy, the operating pressure of enterprises will gradually ease and the market vitality will be further stimulated. At the same time, the market potential of China's super-large-scale domestic demand will be continuously released, and the demand structure will be optimized and upgraded, thus actively promoting the expansion and efficiency improvement of the industrial economy.