At the same time, the impact of global purchase restriction on Hainan's fixed asset investment and economic growth is emerging. Hainan has ushered in the window period of changing "one room is the only one" and realizing industrial transformation, but many cities and counties still face the dilemma of weak industrial support, and other industries have failed to fill the "vacancy" caused by real estate regulation in time. It will take time for Hainan to realize structural adjustment and industrial transformation.
The market overheating momentum has been curbed and the differentiation is obvious.
After more than a year of global purchase restriction policy, the overheated and rapid development of Hainan property market has been curbed, but the market differentiation is more obvious.
As an important supporting project of "Chang Ying Global 100", there are few buyers in front of a real estate sales center on the west coast of Haikou. This project, which opened before the global purchase restriction policy, was once crowded. However, due to the purchase restriction policy, only four of the dozen buildings were sold, and the unit price dropped again, but the sales progress was still slow. It was not until recently that the project launched preferential activities and the average price dropped to about 12000 yuan that the sales enthusiasm was regained.
/kloc-a real estate project 0/0 km away, the scene is hot. Average price of the first few buildings 17300 yuan/square meter. If you choose a "decoration package" with more than 2,000 yuan and more than 200,000 parking spaces, the unit price is not low, but before the opening, the number of subscribers has far exceeded the actual number of buyers.
"Haikou's real estate sales market is showing a trend of differentiation. Commercial residential sales are sought after by the market, and individual properties are sold out at the opening; Pure business, especially office sales, is cold and sales are not ideal; The supply of residential inventory has fallen sharply. The next step is to ensure a stable supply of commercial housing market and a stable price. " The relevant person in charge of Haikou Housing and Construction Bureau told the reporter.
According to the data of Haikou Housing and Construction Bureau, the regulatory effect of the global purchase restriction policy has achieved certain results. 20 18, 1- 18 February, the real estate market generally showed a steady trend of falling volume and price. 20 1 965438+1October1By the end of March, Haikou had sold 7 18700 square meters of commercial housing, down 75.55% year-on-year, and the average price of commercial housing was 14837 yuan/square meter, down 2.35% year-on-year.
Hainan's real estate market has also experienced further differentiation. The reporter's field investigation found that Haikou is the hottest place in the province's real estate market, followed by Sanya, and other cities and counties are basically difficult to find the hot scene more than a year ago.
According to statistics, from April 23rd, 20 18 to the end of April, 20 19, Sanya actually sold 3,256 sets of commercial houses, with a sales area of only 324,600 square meters. Before the introduction of the purchase restriction policy, the average annual sales of commercial housing in Sanya was about 2 million square meters.
The cold and cheerless situation is more obvious in the western line of the island. From Chengmai, Lingao and Danzhou in the north to Changjiang, Dongfang and Ledong in the south, there is no snapping scene a year ago. "It feels good to be able to sell 2-digit sets in a month now." The person in charge of the housing management department of a city and county in the West Line said.
According to relevant statistics, last year, the sales area of commercial housing in Hainan Province was14,322,500 square meters, down by 37.5% year-on-year, and dropped continuously 1 1 month, and the decline rate remained at about 30%. The sales amount of commercial housing in the province was 208.329 billion yuan, down 23.2% year-on-year. In the first half of this year, the housing sales area in the province was 3,944,300 square meters, down 571%year-on-year; Housing sales reached 62.039 billion yuan, down 54.9% year-on-year.
The comprehensive effect of global purchase restriction appears
"The introduction of the global purchase restriction policy not only has the background of' staying and not speculating', but also aims to prevent Hainan from falling into the dilemma of' good is only good for real estate' again." A person in charge of a department of Hainan provincial government said that from the reflection and data of all parties, the global purchase restriction has played an important role in curbing the overheated and rapid development of real estate, but there are other comprehensive effects.
Investment in real estate development turned negative. According to statistics, the investment in real estate development in the province last year was17150.4 billion yuan, down 16.5% year-on-year. Since June, investment has turned negative, falling for seven consecutive months. In the first half of this year, the province's investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) decreased by 23% year-on-year, which was 9.5 percentage points narrower than that in the first quarter. Among them, the investment in real estate development decreased by 3 1.4%.
Taxes have fallen sharply. Last year, the real estate value-added tax fell for several months in a row, and in February it fell 10- 16.8%. From June 5438 to April this year, the tax revenue of real estate industry was148.4 billion yuan, down 23.2% year-on-year, with a decrease of 4.49 billion yuan. The proportion of real estate tax revenue to total tax revenue decreased from 42.7% in 20 18 to 32.4%. Among them, Baoting County and Ledong County decreased by nearly 40%, and Wuzhishan City decreased by nearly 30%. With the gradual emergence of regulatory policies and the effect of tax reduction and fee reduction, Hainan's real estate tax revenue may further decline.
Affected by the global purchase restriction policy, the construction progress of some real estate projects under construction in Lingshui County, Hainan Province has slowed down or stopped, with a large inventory backlog, basically stagnant sales, prominent contradictions and disputes, and there is a risk of capital chain breakage.
Market expectations continue to decline. After the introduction of regulatory policies, the development of commercial housing by housing enterprises was blocked, and the expectations of Hainan real estate market declined. Some housing enterprises even sprouted the idea of withdrawing their investment focus from Hainan. The impact on the employment of real estate practitioners has initially appeared, and some intermediaries and sales personnel have moved to the Beibu Gulf restricted purchase area and Yundian area; Affected by the new policy of strict purchase restriction, there are many cases of check-out and refund, and there are commission settlement disputes between housing enterprises, intermediary service institutions and individuals.
Affected by the relationship between supply and demand, the pressure of price control continues to increase. Taking Haikou as an example, on the one hand, affected by favorable policies, some commercial housing projects have been filed for half a year, and it is planned to raise the filing price when the loan expires, and the pressure to control the price of commercial housing is gradually increasing; On the other hand, the actual inventory area of commercial housing in Haikou is less than 3 million square meters, and the decontamination cycle is about 6 months. In the short term, the supply increment is limited, and the task of price control is very heavy. At the same time, Haikou City is in the transition period of "two pauses" transformation and upgrading. In the future, it will still face the contradiction between supply and demand caused by industrial adjustment, low housing inventory, continuous growth of permanent residents and the realization of housing aspirations by "new citizens", and there will be staged price control pressure.
House purchase disputes are frequent. Since last year, more than 0/00 owners of a real estate project/KLOC-have gathered in the project sales office, office and other places for many times, demanding that the real estate enterprise cancel the contract and return the house. Many commercial housing projects on sale have also reflected this situation, arguing that the downward adjustment of house price control has led to losses in house purchase, which has led to disputes over house purchase.
Real estate "vacancy" failed to fill in time
Hainan has been trying to get rid of the absolute dependence of the economy on real estate. In the past, among the "Troika" of investment, export and consumption, real estate contributed the most.
However, other industries have not filled the vacancy in the real estate industry after the global purchase restriction. For example, in Lingshui County, Hainan Province, in recent years, the tax revenue of the real estate industry and its derivative industries accounted for about 90% of the county's total tax revenue, and it is difficult to reverse the situation of "one industry dominates" in real estate in a short time. Before and after the global purchase restriction, Lingshui mainly promoted five major industries, such as cultural tourism service, tropical high-efficiency agriculture, Internet information industry, medical and health industry and marine industry, to make up for the shortcomings of the decline in real estate investment. Even so, many major projects have not yet been implemented, and some remain at the document level.
"Many policies for industrial transformation are still on the document." The head of a city and county department in eastern Hainan seems to be somewhat helpless.
The transformation of real estate enterprises and related industries in Sanya has not yet reached expectations. Liu Qingwei, deputy director of Sanya Housing and Construction Bureau, said that since the implementation of the global purchase restriction policy, real estate development enterprises have been forced to transform and upgrade. Some enterprises are studying the self-sustaining use of existing residential land for the development of rental housing, and some real estate development enterprises are developing homestays and enjoying farms in combination with tourism, but these projects are still in the early stage of feasibility study and development.
Li Youfeng, deputy director of qionghai city Development and Reform Commission, told reporters that the integration of real estate and other industries is still low. "The role of the real estate industry in leading and driving the integration and development of eleven other industries, such as high-tech, finance and exhibition, has not been fully exerted, resulting in the lack of long-term and stable support for the real estate industry." Li Youfeng said.
"The gap left by real estate regulation must be filled by new industries, including tourism, high-tech industries and modern service industries." Shi Lin, chief engineer of the Housing and Construction Department of Hainan Province, said.
"Hainan's attitude towards real estate is very clear now, that is,' housing is not speculation'. These adjustments include not only the optimization and adjustment of the real estate industry and other industries, thus reducing the proportion of real estate, but also the optimization and adjustment within the real estate industry itself. " The person in charge of a functional department in Hainan Province said.
"How to take the real estate control policy in the future, the general direction will not change, and the only space left is to lean towards' introducing talents' as much as possible, which is also in line with Hainan's current overall development." The person in charge said.
Lin said that at the beginning of this year, the housing and construction departments conducted research and analysis on the real estate situation in the province and decided to further implement precise regulation on the basis of maintaining the continuity and stability of real estate regulation and control policies. Strictly control the increment of commodity housing, actively digest the stock of commodity housing, and organically combine the construction of affordable housing such as public rental housing, improved housing such as shed-to-resettlement housing, and talent housing with digesting the stock of commodity housing to achieve a balance between supply and demand.
Huo, director of the Housing and Construction Department of Hainan Province, said that Hainan Province has always insisted that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and will never be a "real estate processing factory". With the determination of a strong man to break his wrist, we should adjust the industrial structure, reduce the dependence of the economy on real estate, and plan to develop the industry from the overall situation of serving the construction of Hainan Free Trade Zone and Free Trade Port. Next, from the perspective of Hainan as a free trade zone (port) as a whole, we will strive for the country's consent to Hainan's guidance on introducing a long-term mechanism for real estate market regulation at the provincial level, and each city and county will formulate specific implementation plans, which will be implemented in an appropriate way when conditions are ripe on the basis of maintaining the stability of the real estate market.
Wang Yiwu, president of Hainan Modern Management Research Institute, pointed out that the healthy, stable, coordinated and sustainable development of Hainan's real estate industry is bound to be a transformation from "one industry is dominant" to an important part of the economy, reflecting and realizing the objective structure and appropriate proportion of economic and social development.