Many real estate executives believe that the real estate market has bottomed out and market confidence has gradually recovered. Although the short-term market is still under pressure, they have confidence in the medium and long-term market. Regarding the investment strategy, several executives said that the company will adhere to the principle of living within our means and cash flow first, and arrange the investment structure according to cash flow. Regarding the M&A plan, several senior executives said that they would actively and extensively contact M&A opportunities, and at the same time prudently make predictions and decisions.
Talking about the market: short-term pressure is improved in the medium and long term.
At the performance conference, the current market situation and future market forecast have attracted much attention.
Vanke, the leader of housing enterprises, shouted two months ago that "the short-term market has bottomed out, but the recovery is a slow and moderate process". At this interim results conference, Yu Liang, Chairman of Vanke's Board of Directors, still insisted on this view. He also said that from the perspective of the real estate industry, the first two regulatory targets of stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations have been basically achieved, and there are relatively big challenges in stabilizing expectations, and market confidence needs to be rebuilt.
Mo Bin, president of Country Garden Group, also believes that the market has entered the bottom since last June, and the most important thing now is the recovery of market confidence. He believes that the market should return to the stage of healthy development in June next year.
Yan Jianguo, Chairman of the Board of Directors of China Shipping Real Estate, and Zhang Dawei, Vice Chairman and Chief Operating Officer of China Resources Land, both believe that the real estate market is still under pressure in the short term, but the market is improving in the medium and long term.
Yan Jianguo believes that the demand of the real estate market includes the demand of hundreds of millions of new citizens, including the focus effect and improved demand of central cities, as well as the dynamic balance between building depreciation and new development. China has a large population base and a large market stock. Many houses need to be rebuilt and built after a certain number of years. If they are replaced by 2% every year, it will be a huge number. In the future, the real estate industry is still a huge industry, which can be adhered to for a long time. From the history of American real estate development, we can see that the real estate development will decline after reaching the peak, but the speed of decline is not so fast, and it still maintains a huge amount.
"The current market is in the transition period in the first half and the second half. The transition period will take some time, including the clearing of the industry. The process is quite complicated and intense. After the reorganization of the industry, in the second half of the year, the profit rate of players and industries in the market will enter a relatively stable stage and another balance. After the transition period, China's economic development is resilient, the urbanization rate of China's population is still rising, and the further agglomeration of central cities will further play its role. Therefore, we remain optimistic and confident about the medium and long-term market. " Yan Jianguo said.
Talking about investment: Living within our means is the first cash flow.
In the first half of the year, the industry was deeply adjusted, and many housing enterprises adjusted their investment strategies, and the amount of land acquired was greatly reduced. For the investment plan in the second half of the year, many housing executives said that they would adhere to the principle of living within our means and cash flow first.
"Since the second half of last year, we have adjusted our investment strategy and investment intensity, and the layout has been adjusted to a certain market, that is, population inflow, higher market energy level and thicker market." Cheng Guangyu, executive vice president of Country Garden, said that this is a big strategic direction. In the second half of the year, according to the cash situation, the company will invest the remaining funds on the premise of ensuring the safety of the company's operation and production; At the same time, we will also invest according to the situation of opportunities and whether we can seize these opportunities.
Vanke also reduced its land acquisition in the first half of the year. In this regard, Liu Xiao, executive vice president of Vanke, said that Vanke has long insisted on living within its means and maintaining a reasonable position. On this basis, it is necessary to add an investment principle, that is, "to obtain particularly good projects". In the past, Vanke made mistakes in some projects, which led to a decline in the profitability of its development business. He explained that "particularly good projects" first require a good market in the region, which is the most important criterion; Secondly, we must ensure that we provide good products and services to our customers; Third, financial indicators, business indicators, benefit indicators, especially net profit, ROI (return on investment) indicators should be better. "Investing well is an important factor to improve gross profit." He said.
Xie Ji, chief strategy officer of China Resources Land, also said that the company has always adhered to a prudent investment strategy, adhered to the principle of living within our means and putting cash flow first, and arranged the investment structure according to cash flow.
Wang, executive director and vice president of Midea Real Estate, said that in the second half of the year, more consideration will be given to the safety of existing land resources and cooperative projects, less energy will be devoted to new land, and more will be devoted to cooperative projects to ensure the safe and timely delivery of cooperative projects.
On merger and acquisition: extensive contact and careful decision-making
In the clearing stage of the industry, many housing enterprises hope to withdraw funds by selling high-quality assets. Project mergers and acquisitions have been supported by the regulatory authorities, and a number of financial asset management companies (AMC) have also joined the rescue ranks of housing enterprises. Regarding the M&A plan, many senior executives said that they would have extensive contacts with M&A opportunities, and at the same time, they would make predictions and decisions cautiously.
Cheng Guangyu said that in the first half of this year, Country Garden has acquired 39 companies, some of which are not in danger, and quite a few are in danger. After arranging the separation, 63 projects have been completed, involving about 3.5 billion yuan. "At present, we generally have many practices for such enterprises, mainly to reduce risks and improve asset turnover efficiency in projects that have been cooperated internally." He said that, of course, it is not excluded to cooperate with central enterprises and AMC companies to carry out some beneficial mergers and acquisitions, but most of these parts are still in the negotiation stage, and the real projects are limited.
For mergers and acquisitions, Yan Jianguo said that a good project is the only criterion. China Shipping still insists on choosing mainstream cities and mainstream lots, and insists on the scale of return on investment. For projects that meet the investment standards, we will conduct in-depth research and fully seize the opportunity.
"Under the current market, there are many opportunities for mergers and acquisitions. Some of our peers are selling assets and some are selling equity. We all have many contacts. In the first half of the year, a number of single-project mergers and acquisitions were completed, and the amount of mergers and acquisitions exceeded 654.38+0 billion yuan. In the next few months, we will keep a positive attitude and cast a net in all directions, hoping that better projects will come in. Of course, it depends on the overall market development. We will still adhere to the fixed income and fixed investment of sales, and make M&A investment on the premise of ensuring the stable operation of enterprises. " Yan Jianguo said.
Wang Ying, CEO of Ruian Real Estate, said that there will be many M&A opportunities during the overall adjustment of the real estate market. Ryan maintained a positive and cautious attitude towards such opportunities. First of all, we will consider whether the project type matches Ryan's development area and development type, and whether it can meet the company's investment standards. If it meets the investment standards, it will actively consider such projects.
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