According to the statistics of automobile forecasters, in the morning of 1 1, A shares collectively opened lower, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%; Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.49%; Growth enterprise market fell 0.38%; SSE 50 fell 0.01%; The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell by 0.33%. From the perspective of the disk, the market sector rotates, and the underperforming sectors such as infrastructure, cement, coal and COVID-19 vaccine concept rise sharply, while the technology and automobile stocks with good momentum in the previous period fall sharply and pull back for two consecutive days.
As of today's half-day closing, BYD shares fell by 10.35%, Great Wall Motor by 9.93%, Guangzhou Automobile Group by 5.39%, Geely Automobile by 4.5 1%, Beijing Automobile and Yadea Holdings by over 3%, and Brilliance China by over 2%. However, compared with the low point, Tucki, Weilai and Ideality, three new car-making enterprises that have achieved US IPO, have soared by more than 20 times.
However, this surge did not last long, and the subsequent growth momentum was very weak. In this regard, some voices believe that the economic fundamentals are difficult to support the market to enter the bull market at 3400 points, and the callback is the law of market self-adjustment; There is also a voice that COVID-19 vaccine concept stocks and crude oil began to attract gold, and it is difficult for institutional funds to enter the market at a high level; There is also a voice that the US election has begun to give a positive impetus to the capital market.
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Why do auto stocks go up?
The data shows that 1 1 In the first week, domestic auto stocks were all red, rising rapidly for four consecutive trading days. During this period, BYD's market value exceeded 500 billion yuan, ranking first among domestic cars. At the same time, the market value of battery supplier Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has also exceeded 600 billion yuan. In addition, three new car-making enterprises in China also gained high market value by listing in the US stock market, with the market values of Ideal, Tucki and Weilai exceeding15 billion,17 billion and 370 billion respectively.
The industry does not seem to be surprised by the market value growth of new car manufacturers and even pure electric vehicle companies. More voices believe that it is precisely because of Tesla's promotion that technology and electricity are integrated into automobile manufacturing, so that automobile companies are revalued on a global scale. However, Tesla's pulling effect has already appeared. Since May 2020, Tesla has been on the rise, so it is not Tesla that drives the growth of domestic auto stocks. In addition, the dust has settled in the US election. According to the previous speech and related actions, Biden's election is conducive to the development of new energy vehicles. Therefore, new energy vehicle stocks have developed well.
For the week-long rapid growth of auto stocks, auto forecasters found that 654381the 14th Five-Year Plan proposal reviewed on October 29th and the new energy auto industry development plan (202 1-2035) released on October 2nd. The landing of the two documents means that the future development direction will remain unchanged and unshakable.
In the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" proposal, new energy vehicles are listed as the key content of developing strategic emerging industries, promoting advanced manufacturing clusters, and cultivating new technologies, new products, new formats and new models. In addition, promoting the transformation of consumer goods such as automobiles from purchase management to use management is also the key link to comprehensively promote consumption in the 14 th Five-Year Plan.
In this regard, Li Wanli, an expert from the Academic Committee of Experts of China International Engineering Consulting Company, said: "In the past, we subsidized manufacturing and foreign countries subsidized consumption. Promoting the transformation of consumer goods such as automobiles from purchase management to use management shows that subsidies are shifting to consumption, not only for the initial end of consumption (purchase link), but also for the deeper process of consumption. "
In addition, the new energy automobile industry development plan (20021-2035) is mainly carried out in four major areas: technical research, infrastructure construction such as charging and replacing electricity, hydrogenation, encouraging international cooperation, and public service policy support. In view of the future development trend, overall thinking deployment and talent team construction of new energy vehicles, the concepts of electrification, networking and intelligence are mentioned. According to the plan, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 20% of the total sales of new cars by 2025, and pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold cars by 2035.
Although the sales of new energy vehicles will account for 5% to 20% of new car sales by 2025, compared with the draft for comment, tasks and measures are put forward in supporting facilities such as highly automatic driving, intelligent network connection, full electrification of buses and commercialization of fuel cell vehicles. In the industry's view, the two documents plan the whole life cycle of new energy vehicles from manufacturing to consumption. As the achievements of traditional car companies in electrification are introduced one after another, the share price of auto stocks will rise.
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The profits of auto stocks were short-sold.
In the industry's view, on the one hand, the callback of auto stocks is influenced by the law of the broader market. Relevant practitioners pointed out that the correction of the market before the bull market has become the law of funds, and 3400 points can be recognized as entering the "bull market", but at present the bull market lacks economic fundamental support. According to the economic data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP in the first three quarters was 72,278.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. From the perspective of the industry, industrial enterprises above designated size were the core growth drivers in the first three quarters, and from the perspective of growth structure, the overall growth was uneven.
In response to this problem, Cao He, president of Quanlian Automobile Dealer Investment Management Co., Ltd., pointed out in an interview with Automobile Prophet that the arbitrary callback of automobile stocks was affected by profit selling pressure.
The car prophet combed the three quarterly reports of 20 A-share listed car companies and found that profitability is not directly proportional to the growth rate of revenue and sales. At the same time, the composition of profit growth includes not only the quantity drive brought by the recovery of automobile sales, but also the improvement of financial structure under refined operation, including the supplement of non-operating profit flow. This means that the profit rate before interest and tax of enterprises is affected by the market.
For example, Guangzhou Automobile Group achieved revenue of 42.846 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 0.38% year-on-year, and net profit of 5.0065438 billion yuan, down 21.04% year-on-year; Great Wall Motor's revenue in the first three quarters was 621430,000 yuan, up 1.05% year-on-year, and its net profit was 2.587 billion yuan, down1.32% year-on-year. SAIC's revenue in the first three quarters was 498.66 billion yuan, down14.8% year-on-year; The net profit was 65.438+0.665 billion yuan, down 654.38+09.9% year-on-year.
Judging from the fundamentals of the auto market, although the performance of the auto market has gradually improved, the performance of listed auto companies has further improved in the third quarter, but due to the low overall base in the previous period, the annual performance still declined to some extent compared with 20 19. After deducting the net profit from non-recurring gains and losses, the losses of some car companies have further expanded, which means that the main business of these car companies has not yet achieved substantial improvement.
At the same time, we must also see that the head car companies ushered in a good performance in the third quarter. From the perspective of large industrial sectors, the Matthew effect of the automobile market has become more and more obvious. Many weak enterprises have insufficient blood supply, and the performance of listed companies is characterized by "uneven heat and cold".
Therefore, there are still different conclusions about whether the stock price of auto stocks is overvalued when the car goes up. Some people think that the stock price is in line with the current performance expectations, but some investors believe that there is a bubble in the valuation of auto stocks under the policy and Tesla effect.
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"The stock price of speculation has little to do with the real valuation, so don't care."
Auto Prophet noticed that since the second week of June 1 1, a large amount of funds began to flow to COVID-19's vaccine, crude oil and other sectors, and infrastructure, cement, coal and other sectors gradually rose.
In this regard, Zhang Xin, chief auto analyst of Guotai Junan Securities, said in an interview with the auto prophet: "On the whole, due to various external factors, the capital market has strong liquidity and institutional funds have entered a state of contraction.
When the internal and external conditions were stable, institutional funds began to flow into the market, but due to market changes, institutional funds began to divert. During this period, the car was close to the high position, and no institution was willing to take over the high position. For institutions, there are many bubbles in auto stocks. "
From the past few years, auto stocks have been in a state of low valuation for a long time, focusing on assets, traditional manufacturing and low profitability. But this year, the wind has changed, and cars have become the focus of big consumption, which has also driven the growth of supporting science and technology sectors. In Zhang Xin's view, at present, it is the stage of reassessing the valuation of auto stocks in the capital market.
Zhang Xin said: "Speculation valuation is meaningless, and it is not good for auto stocks to break away from the concept of entity speculation. Compared with the stability of multinational car companies, many electric car companies headed by Tesla are relatively weak in traditional manufacturing links, and there is still a big gap between the supply chain system of a certain link and multinational car companies. There is no need to worry too much about the virtual high bubble supported by the external environment. "
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.