In the first half of 2020, the real estate market spent an unsettled half year. Under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic, the real estate market gradually recovered from the "frozen" in the first quarter to the second quarter; The decision-making level reiterated the position of "housing and not speculating", and the regulatory policies of various cities continued to be high-pressure. At the same time, housing enterprises set off a wave of land auctions, with tens of billions of plots frequently occurring and the property market steadily picking up.
In view of the industry changes in the first half of 2020, on June 30, 58 Tongcheng and Anjuke released the report "Summary of the Property Market in the First Half of 2020". The report pointed out that under the conditions of the city's policy, a number of policies were introduced to ensure the stable development of the real estate market. Although some cities have relaxed their land policies to a certain extent, which has enhanced the willingness of real estate enterprises to take land, on the whole, "housing without speculation" is still the main tone of property market regulation.
According to the monitoring data of Tongcheng and Anjuke, affected by epidemic factors, the national real estate development investment reached 4,592 billion yuan from June to May 2020, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year. However, with the effective control of the epidemic and the recovery of production work, the demand of buyers for housing is gradually released, and their confidence in buying houses is also rising; The enthusiasm for finding second-hand houses is high, and Shanghai has become the hottest city in the second-hand housing market. From the perspective of home preference, 2 rooms and 3 halls are still the most concerned by buyers, and second-hand houses with a total price of less than one million are the most attractive to buyers.
Looking forward to the second half of 2020, Jaco, president of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute Branch, believes that under the guidance of the policy of waiting for houses because of the city and not speculating, the property market will still maintain steady development in the first half of 2020 under the great influence of the epidemic. It is expected that the overall deregulation will remain cautious in the second half of the year, especially the demand-side policies, such as the government's loose space involving down payment ratio, purchase restriction and loan restriction. It is expected that there will be a round of plate rotation in the third quarter. In some cities with hot transactions in April and May, the heat will return to normal, while in some cities with cold markets in the first half of the year, the heat may increase significantly. Overall, the gap between the market turnover in the second half of the year and last year will gradually narrow, but the property market in hot cities and regions may still reach a new peak. The expected stability of house prices and land prices will be further strengthened, but the differentiation between cities will continue.
"Housing is not speculation" remains, and a number of policies such as talent subsidies have been introduced to ensure the stable development of the property market.
"Summary of the property market in the first half of 2020" pointed out that many policies were introduced in the first half of the year to ensure the stable development of the real estate market, but it can also be seen that the regulatory policies of some cities did not conform to the basic policy of "housing and not speculating", and were quickly taken back after being released. Therefore, we should be cautious about the relaxation of regulatory policies, and the opening and closing of regulatory policies will often have a great impact on the real estate market and easily lead to uncontrollable factors.
In the first half of 2020, the city's looting of talents is still fierce. According to the statistics of Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, there are dozens of cities such as Hangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, Nanchang, Jinan, Zhengzhou, Qingdao, Wuxi and Shenyang. , have lowered the threshold for settlement or issued different forms of living allowances to retain talents.
The land market, which affects real estate investment, performed better than the whole in the first half of the year. Land policies in some cities have been relaxed, including lowering the requirements for payment and reserve, which has enhanced the willingness of housing enterprises to take land to some extent. On the other hand, it is related to the rapid recovery of trading markets in some cities. Housing enterprises will be more active in the land market while quickly obtaining pre-sale funds.
In the local auction market, tens of billions of land kings began to appear in many cities. Typical local auction plots, such as the plot with a total price of 3 1 100 million in Xuhui District of Shanghai in February, a plot with a total price of over 10 billion in Siming District of Xiamen in April, and tens of billions of plots in Shenzhen in May. In the first half of 2020, the land market also showed a gradual warming trend.
The recovery of the property market led to an increase in sales, and the heat of finding houses in cities around Beijing increased by 1 1.5% year-on-year.
In the first half of 2020, the new housing market experienced a trend of first restraining and then promoting. With the gradual recovery of the property market, new house transactions continue to improve.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from June 5438 to May 2020, the national investment in real estate development was 4,592 billion yuan, down 0.3% year-on-year. Among them, residential investment was 3,376.5 billion yuan, rising to the same period last year. Compared with the decline in1-April, the decline is obviously narrowed, which further indicates that the development investment data has stepped out of the trough and gradually picked up.
The overall heat of the property market in May played an important role in sales growth, and the area for sale of commercial housing was further reduced to 565,438+1100 million square meters. By the end of May 2020, the area of commercial housing for sale in China was 5 1 776,5438+0,000 square meters, a decrease of 4.83 million square meters compared with the end of April.
It is worth noting that the transaction volume of new houses and commercial houses in first-tier cities has rebounded. From June 5438 to May 2020, the transaction volume of commercial housing in first-tier and fourth-tier cities decreased by 26.7% year-on-year, but it rebounded significantly after March. In May, the turnover of commercial housing in Shanghai exceeded one million square meters. In terms of transaction price, the average transaction price of commercial housing in first-tier cities fluctuated to a certain extent. In May, the average transaction price in Shanghai exceeded 60,000 yuan/square meter.
Similar to the trend of new house transactions, in the first half of 2020, the popularity of users' new house visits began to gradually pick up. Tongcheng and Anjuke's "Summary of the Property Market in the First Half of 2020" report shows that the heat of viewing new houses has obviously rebounded from March to June, and the enthusiasm for buying houses has been released. In the first half of the year, the popularity of new house visits increased by 6.3% year-on-year.
According to the statistics of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, the popularity of housing search in cities around Beijing increased by 1 1.5% year-on-year, and Beijing and Taiyuan increased by more than 20% year-on-year. Among the surrounding areas of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Foshan ranked second in the heat of finding a house, up 5.7% year-on-year. In the surrounding areas of Shanghai, the heat of finding a house in Shanghai is relatively stable, rising by1.9% compared with last year; The heat of finding a house in Changzhou and Shaoxing rose by over 15%.
Similar to last year's situation, in the new first-tier cities, the heat of new house users looking for houses is still concentrated in the central and western regions, with Xi ranking first, Chongqing ranking second and third. Compared with last year, the heat of finding a house in Changsha increased by 28.9%, and that in Hefei and Qingdao increased by 8%.
The enthusiasm for finding second-hand houses has risen, and the popularity of Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen has increased by more than 10%.
Similar to the trend of viewing new houses, after the property market picked up, the enthusiasm of buyers looking for second-hand houses also increased. 58 Tongcheng and Anjuke's "Summary of the Property Market in the First Half of 2020" report shows that in the first half of 2020, the peak of the popularity of second-hand housing visits appeared in March-May, and the popularity of second-hand housing search increased to a certain extent in April, May and June.
Judging from the listing price, the listing price of second-hand houses in Beijing led the way up, but compared with the same period last year, the prices in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose year-on-year. Among the new first-tier cities, the listing price of second-hand houses in Suzhou and Foshan increased by over 10% year-on-year.
When investigating the second-hand housing units, 2 rooms and 3 halls are still the most concerned by buyers. 58 Tongcheng and Anjuke's "Summary of the Property Market in the First Half of 2020" report pointed out that in June 2020, the proportion of buyers who preferred three bedrooms was 45.2%, and the proportion who preferred two bedrooms was 3 1.5%. 70-120m2, the second-hand housing preference ratio is 5 1.9%, which has little change with the overall trend.
Under the influence of the epidemic, the heat of finding second-hand houses in different city levels is also different. The monitoring results of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute show that in the first half of 2020, the popularity of second-hand housing visits in the first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by more than 10% year-on-year. Among them, second-hand housing in Shanghai leads, followed by Beijing. Among the new first-tier cities, Chongqing, Chengdu and Shenyang ranked the top three in terms of second-hand housing visits. The popularity of second-hand housing in Chengdu, Changsha and Dongguan increased by more than 10% year-on-year. These cities not only have rapid economic growth, but also have exquisite food and comfortable living atmosphere, which are favored by many young people.
The enthusiasm of buyers for second-hand housing transactions has also led to the stability of brokers' confidence index. Although the brokerage confidence index fluctuated in February 2020 and fell below 100, it rose sharply to 108.2 in March, and then remained basically stable.
The supply of rental housing has rebounded significantly, and the rental fever in Beijing is still ahead of the country.
58 Tongcheng and Anjuke's "Summary of the Property Market in the First Half of 2020" report pointed out that from the perspective of the new supply of rental housing, the new supply of rental housing was at a low level in February 2020. However, with the start of construction in various cities and the return of the number of renters, the supply of rental housing began to pick up significantly in March, and the new supply remained stable from April to June.
In terms of cities, the new supply of rental housing in Shanghai leads the first-tier cities. In the second quarter, Shanghai's new supply increased by 10.3% year-on-year, and Guangzhou increased by 40.7% year-on-year. Among the new first-tier cities, the supply of rental housing in Nanjing was in the forefront in the first quarter, and the new supply in Chongqing, Shenyang and Changsha increased by 94.0%, 45.9% and 33.2% respectively in the second quarter.
According to the monitoring data of Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, the rent of 19 city, which was mainly monitored in the first half of the year, declined under the influence of floating population and local talent policy. In the first half of 2020 19, the average rent of key cities was 40.8 yuan/m2/month, down 1.3% year-on-year. Among the new first-tier cities, the rental price in Hangzhou is 52.7 yuan/㎡/month, while Wuhan and Nanjing surpass 40 yuan/㎡/month. Rental prices in other cities are mostly between 20-40 yuan/㎡/month.
In the aspect of rental heat, multiple factors led to the decrease of rental demand and the decrease of visiting heat in June 5438+ 10-2, 2020. 58 Tongcheng and Anjuke's "Summary of the Property Market in the First Half of 2020" report shows that the demand for renting houses rebounded in March, and the renting heat remained high from March to June.
Judging from the popularity of rental visits in different cities, in the first half of 2020, Beijing's rental popularity in first-tier cities still led the country, and in the second quarter, Beijing's rental popularity increased by 1 1.8% year-on-year. Among the new first-tier cities, Chengdu, as a network celebrity city, has not lost its enthusiasm for renting houses, only lower than Beijing. In the second quarter, the rental fever in Chengdu increased by 1.0% year-on-year. Chongqing, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou and other new first-tier cities are also ranked relatively high.