1, the demand for ordinary labor services shows a downward trend, while the demand for high-tech labor services generally shows an upward trend.
After World War II, after decades of economic recovery and development in western developed countries, labor-intensive infrastructure projects have been completed and the industrial structure has undergone profound changes. Labor-intensive projects have been replaced by technology-intensive and capital-intensive projects. Since 1980s, the world labor market has been in recession. In fact, the reduction of international labor demand is mainly the reduction of general labor demand, and a large number of laid-off foreign laborers are mainly unskilled workers engaged in general labor. The protectionist policies pursued by some countries and regions are mainly aimed at limiting the inflow of ordinary labor. Judging from the development trend, this situation will not change much. The prosperity and development trend of intellectual and technical labor market is the leading force in the development of contemporary world labor market. Due to the rapid development of modern science and technology, the requirements for the quality of the labor force are getting higher and higher. There is a general shortage of all kinds of technical and management talents in the world, especially compound talents with one specialty and many functions. According to the statistics of the World Bank, more than 60% of the foreign labor services imported by the United States are skilled workers and professional technicians, and the proportion in West Germany reaches 70%. Other developed countries and developing countries also have similar tendencies to varying degrees. The proportion of ordinary labor services decreased, while the proportion of technical labor services increased. This trend has promoted and is promoting the changes in the structure of the international labor market, and gradually formed a multi-level and multi-industry labor market structure focusing on high-level labor services.
2. The gap of dirty, tired and dangerous jobs is increasing day by day, and the number of service-oriented labor services is increasing obviously.
With the development of economy, the improvement of people's living standards and the great progress of science and technology, on the one hand, it promotes the development of the labor market to a high level, on the other hand, it brings a large number of vacancies in dirty, tired and dangerous jobs and the rapid growth of the service-oriented labor force in the tertiary industry. In developed countries and some developed developing countries, dirty, tiring and dangerous jobs are in short supply. Because no one is in charge, we have to hire foreign labor services to fill them, such as cleaners, porters, miners, fishermen, steel mills and chemical plants.
With the development of economy and the improvement of people's life, great changes have taken place in the industrial structure of developed countries and relatively developed developing countries. The proportion of service industry in gross national product and employed population is increasing day by day, and the development prospect of service industry labor market is broad. For example, there is a shortage of community and public services in many countries, 50% of public transport service personnel in South Korea, and domestic service personnel and chefs in Britain and Hong Kong. In addition, industries such as finance, insurance, advertising, tourism and consulting services also have certain labor demand. Therefore, in the future, the employment scope of foreign labor services in service industry will be wider and wider, and the employment rate will be higher and higher.
3. The natural population growth is slow and the aging is serious, which leads to the shortage of labor in developed countries.
The imbalance of global economy and population development determines the imbalance of labor mobility. Developed countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan, on the one hand, have huge economies and strong demand for labor services; On the other hand, due to the slow natural population growth and serious aging in these countries, the labor shortage problem cannot be improved. According to statistics, the employed population aged 16-24 in the United States was 23.4 million in 1987, and it dropped to 20 million by the end of last century. The population of Europe/KOLOC-0/2 countries/KOLOC-0/0000 in 1993 was 32/KOLOC-0/0000, and it is expected to drop to 3/KOLOC-0/50000 in 2025, but the number of retirees over 65 will increase from 43/KOLOC-0/0000, and Japan, Australia, Eastern Europe and other countries will increase to 64. In the future, with the aging of the population in some developed countries, the medical care for the elderly will be further developed, and there will be more and more employment opportunities for foreign nannies, doctors and nurses in this field. For example, the number of nurses in the United States reached 15% in 2003, and the Saudi Ministry of Health and its affiliated hospitals employed nearly 65,438+10,000 foreign medical staff.
4. Restrictions on foreign services, especially intellectual and technical services, will be gradually relaxed.
At present, most countries in the world generally lack ordinary labor, especially intellectual and technical labor. In western developed countries and more developed developing countries and regions, many jobs with low social status, low wages and high physical consumption are often ignored. There are 3 million people in the European Union and nearly10 million people in the United States. They specialize in cleaning up the mess and doing jobs that local people don't want to do. The trend of population decline and aging in developed countries, Eastern Europe and CIS countries intensifies the contradiction between labor shortage and economic development, especially the shortage of professional and technical services. At the same time, the rising domestic labor costs have affected the competitiveness of products in the international market. Under this pressure, some countries and regions have to relax immigration control. At the beginning of 2004, the President of the United States announced the reform of the immigration policy bill, intending to gradually open the labor market and provide temporary and short-term employment opportunities for foreign workers who intend to work in the United States. If this bill is passed by Congress, nearly10 million illegal immigrants in the United States will be granted temporary work and residence permits for three years. Over the years, the Japanese government has expanded the absorption of foreign labor services through "trainees" in disguise. In 2003, Japan employed 274,000 foreign workers, an increase of 46,000 over the previous years, including 44,000 skilled workers and 50,000 technical interns. In order to maintain long-term economic stability, Japan needs to supplement 600,000 laborers every year, so it is only a matter of time and way to open the labor market. The Spanish government has been implementing a quota policy for labor input, but in order to attract more foreign labor talents. In 2004, the quota was increased to 52,000. It is estimated that after the tide of illegal immigration is effectively controlled, Spain's labor quota will increase substantially, exceeding 250,000 people every year. In addition, some newly industrialized countries and regions in Southeast Asia have relaxed the restrictions on foreigners' entry when there is a structural labor shortage in the rapid economic growth.
Generally speaking, although there are still some restrictions on foreign labor services in the international labor market, the demand for labor services is different, the development potential is different, and the competition for labor services is fierce. The overall trend of the international labor market continues to develop steadily and has broad prospects.