0 1 macro environmental analysis-follow suit
Haier Zhang Ruimin once said: "There are no successful enterprises, only enterprises of the times. The so-called successful enterprise is just because it has stepped on the beat of the times. "
The so-called era is the outlet. Excellent enterprises will be born in every outlet:
PC Age: Microsoft and Intel
Internet age: BAT
Mobile internet era: TMD
New energy vehicles: Weilai, Ideality and Xpeng. ...
Every industry will be influenced by the times, specifically the macro environment.
Macro-environment can be analyzed through the classical PEST analysis framework.
For example, the macro industry analysis of online education industry:
What are the subdivision trajectories? -find breakthroughs and opportunities.
Some industries have a large territory, which can be further subdivided and mapped, and then find the breakthrough point and new opportunities.
For example, the industry map of online education:
How wide is the track? -Predicting the development space
How wide the track is refers to how big the market is.
Market size determines the upper limit of development, and the development space can be predicted through scale estimation.
It would be great if there were authoritative data to quote.
If not, make a prediction.
The simplest algorithm is: market size = sales volume x unit price.
For example, the scale of online education users predicted by Ai Media Consulting:
The online education market scale predicted by Ai Media Consulting;
How long is the track? -Forecast the development trend
What stage of development is this industry in? What is the future development trend?
Here I share with you the M curve of industry maturity, which can be used in the following scenarios:
Judging the industry development trend
Guide the direction of strategic planning
Assist in setting operational objectives.
According to the law of industry development, most industries will experience germination, overheating, reflection, recovery, maturity and decline.
Germination: the industry is in its infancy, an innovative technology has just been developed, and start-ups have begun to make the first generation of innovative products based on innovative technologies. Novel and unique products have attracted the attempts of innovators and early adopters, and attracted great attention from capital and media.
Overheating period: with the media following up the hype, a large number of manufacturers and investors poured in, and the market competition became more and more fierce.
Reflection period: Because the products are not mature enough, negative reports continue, mergers and closures of suppliers occur from time to time, and capital exits, the industry has reached the bottom of the bubble.
Recovery period: innovative technologies are constantly improving, second-generation products and services are gradually recognized, market confidence begins to recover, and more and more mass users begin to accept products. Mainstream manufacturers began to strengthen marketing and seize the market leading position.
Maturity: the market grows steadily, the products mature gradually, the entry threshold of the industry increases, mainstream manufacturers begin to make profits and succeed in IPO, the division of labor in the industrial chain is clear, and the industry enters maturity.
Decline: A new generation of innovative technologies has been developed, and the experience and cost performance of a new generation of innovative products greatly exceed the original old products, resulting in a large number of users migrating to new products, the industry entering recession, and some original manufacturers shutting down and turning around.
The online education industry soared during the epidemic and entered a recovery period of rapid growth.
* * * Lexiang automobile industry has passed the embryonic stage and overheating stage, and started to enter the period of reflection. Recently, many * * * are enjoying the operation of automobile companies in difficulties.
How crowded is the track 05? Make money, okay?
How crowded the track is, that is, how many players are there in this track, and how many shares can you expect to win if you enter this track, so as to make money?
By drawing the industrial chain diagram, we can show the upstream, downstream participants and participation methods of this industry, and see at a glance how many players there are in this track and how the competition pattern is.
For example, the online education industry chain:
Draw the participants in each link on the industrial chain diagram (as shown below), and you can intuitively see who are the participants in each link of the industrial chain, that is, "how crowded the track is."
If the track is too crowded, it means that the competition is fierce and it is not easy to make money.
The picture below shows the industrial chain of new energy vehicles. It can be seen that the industrial chain is quite mature, but the track is also very crowded.
When analyzing whether an industry is profitable, there is a classic tool: five-force model. (Yes, it was summed up by Michael Porter)
The five forces model says that an industry has five forces to determine the profit level of this industry:
1. Competition among existing peers
2. The threat of alternatives
3, the threat of new entrants
4. The bargaining power of suppliers
5. The bargaining power of customers (including the bargaining power of downstream manufacturers)
For example, the following figure is a five-force model of the online education industry (mobile phone click to read APP).
How to get industry information?
Provide an industry analysis framework to help you clear your mind and grasp the key points in industry analysis.
With the analytical framework, how to obtain industry-related information?
The following are some information acquisition channels for your reference:
When using search engines to find industry analysis reports, there is a search trick: add: filetype:pdf after search keywords, so that you can find PDF reports specially, which is usually of high quality.