Is the "cold water" policy of a central city like Hangzhou effective for the Yangtze River Delta, which is currently leading the country in terms of fiery degree? Where will the Yangtze River Delta property market go? ?
On July 2, the Office of the Leading Group for the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Hangzhou issued the Notice on Further Clarifying the Relevant Requirements for the Public Sale of Commodity Housing Notary Yaohao (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), which clarified the relevant matters concerning the sale of Notary Yaohao. ?
Among them, the three major policy adjustments have attracted attention. ?
First, "restricted sales", Hangzhou has increased the conditions for talents to limit sales for five years after buying a house; ?
The second is "purchase restriction", which raises the threshold of "family without house". In addition to meeting the original requirements, families with household registration within the scope of non-purchase restriction in Hangzhou must also meet the requirements of "continuously paying urban social insurance or personal income tax 12 months within the scope of purchase restriction in this city from the year before the date of purchase"; ?
The third is "limited shake", which stipulates that a family buying a house can only participate in the registration of purchase intention of a new commodity housing project at the same time. ?
The introduction of such a policy is considered to be a weather vane. ?
Is the "cold water" policy of a central city like Hangzhou effective for the Yangtze River Delta, which is currently leading the country? ?
How can local governments adopt different policies to cope with and regulate the demand for the property market brought about by the increasingly differentiated population situation in the Yangtze River Delta? ?
Is the Yangtze River Delta property market hot?
Hangzhou's "cold water" is scattered in the fiery Yangtze River Delta property market. ?
In terms of price, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, the prices of new houses in the Yangtze River Delta region 1 1 cities all achieved positive growth year-on-year, with Xuzhou, Yangzhou, Wuxi, Ningbo, Jinhua and Hangzhou increasing by more than 5%. ?
On a ring-on-ring basis, Ningbo leads the cities in the Yangtze River Delta with a ring-on-ring increase of 1.4%, ranking second among 70 cities in China, while the new houses in Nanjing and Wuxi are among the top 70 cities with ring-on-ring increases of 1.2% and 1.0% respectively. ?
As the price goes up, the quantity is also increasing. ?
According to RealData data, in the first half of 2020, the cumulative growth of transaction area in Hangzhou and Nanjing reached 1 1.9% and 24.4% respectively, and Suzhou also increased by 8.8% year-on-year. ?
According to RealData, cities in the Yangtze River Delta region have recovered rapidly in the new housing market and still show a more positive willingness to rise. ?
Source: RealData?
In fact, the long-term hot property market has changed the balance between supply and demand in some cities in the Yangtze River Delta. ?
Yiju Research Institute uses the inventory area of newly-built commercial housing at the end of the year and divides it by the average transaction area of newly-built commercial housing in the last six months to get the inventory cycle of urban housing, that is, the ratio of deposit to sales. According to the calculation data, by the end of May this year, the ratio of deposit to sales of new residential buildings in Ningbo was only 2.9 months, ranking first among its 100 cities. However, Hangzhou, Hefei and Maanshan have only 4.4, 4.8 and 5.9 months, and the market is well digested. ?
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development requires cities with a cycle of less than six months to "not only greatly increase land supply, but also accelerate the pace of land supply". Obviously, the above-mentioned cities in the Yangtze River Delta are among them. ?
The land market continues the trend of last year, and the Yangtze River Delta region is still the key area for housing enterprises. According to the data of China Index Academy, among the 300 cities it monitored, eight of the top 20 cities that completed land transfer fees in the first half of the year came from the Yangtze River Delta. ?
Source: China Index Academy?
According to the statistics of Yiju Research Institute, the premium rates of land transactions in Ningbo, Yangzhou, Wuxi, Hangzhou and Jinhua reached 28%, 24%, 22%, 22% and 16% respectively in June, and the land market was relatively hot. ?
RealData said that the land market led the expectations in the first half of the year, and the Yangtze River Delta region led the country. ?
Thanks to the favorable stimulus of state-level planning and positive willingness to supply land, the Yangtze River Delta region leads the country in warming up, and the planned area of Suzhou and Nantong has increased by more than 40%, and the growth rate of volume and price is among the highest in the country. ?
Talent policy is no longer single and loose?
The adjustment of talent purchase policy in Hangzhou is of symbolic significance to the adjustment of property market policy in the Yangtze River Delta. ?
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the talent introduction policy in Hangzhou has been relatively loose. While introducing more talents, there have also been some real estate speculation. Similar to the sales restriction policy, a patch has been made at the same time as the existing talent policy, which helps to prevent real estate speculation through the talent policy and further promote the stability of the housing transaction market. ?
In fact, not only Hangzhou, but also the talent policy in the Yangtze River Delta region some time ago was mainly based on relaxation. ?
When analyzing the characteristics of the property market policy in the Yangtze River Delta at this stage, Tongce Research Institute pointed out that in the past, the property market in the Yangtze River Delta mainly relied on the talent policy for directional easing. Many cities have introduced talent policies, relaxed restrictions on talent settlement and house purchase, and relaxed the demand side. ?
On June 20th, Yiwu issued the Notice on Adjusting Some Provisions of the Measures for the Implementation of Housing Subsidies for Talents in Yiwu, and made three relaxation points:
First, cancel the household registration restrictions, that is, people who are not registered in Yiwu can also apply for relevant housing subsidies. ?
Second, cancel the social security requirement, that is, those who have paid social security for less than 2 years can apply for subsidies as long as they promise to serve in the relevant units for 7 years. ?
Third, reduce the down payment requirement. After applying for subsidies for talents to buy houses before, the down payment ratio was 50%, and the New Deal was cancelled. ?
At the beginning of April, Nanjing announced that it would relax the threshold for talents to settle down, and junior college students under the age of 40 could settle down for half a year. ?
Suzhou Industrial Park Management Committee also issued a notice to change the qualifications of undergraduates, masters and other talents from "no housing transaction record in the past two years" to one year. ?
This demand-side adjustment is also considered to be related to the fierce competition between talents and population in the Yangtze River Delta region. ?
The data shows that in 20 19, the permanent population of Hangzhou and Ningbo increased, accounting for more than 79% of the total growth in Zhejiang Province. These two cities are also the hottest cities in this round of the Yangtze River Delta property market. ?
Source: wind?
Many analysts pointed out to the reporter of 2 1 century business herald that the adjustment and relaxation of talent policy have really stimulated the demand of the property market in the past two years. ?
In this regard, a senior housing enterprise in the Yangtze River Delta told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that due to the generally small proportion of talent houses, the impact of Hangzhou's current sales restriction policy on the market was not so great as to reverse the market situation. ?
But its more important significance lies in that the inflow of population is also divided within the Yangtze River Delta, which will have an impact on the demand of the property market. Hangzhou's measures show the attitude of local governments, that is, areas with population inflow and booming property market may also tighten policy direction, not just relax it. ?