As the above-mentioned people said, after making great strides, lithium carbonate has recently shown signs of stopping rising and stabilizing. According to the research report of Everbright Securities, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 570,000 yuan/ton last week, which was the same as the previous week, and stopped rising for the first time since 18 weeks. According to the data of Shanghai Steel Union, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate1mid-October 165438+ stood at 590,000 yuan/ton, and remained stable for more than ten days. There has been a downward trend recently. 165438+1On October 29th, the average market price was 582,500 yuan/ton, which was 0.75 million yuan/ton lower than the previous high.
In the opinion of most interviewees, the downstream demand of new energy vehicles is less than expected recently, and the overall purchasing sentiment of the industrial chain is not high. The upstream and downstream game results are unknown, and the stabilization of lithium carbonate conforms to the trading logic; However, after the stage pessimism gradually disappears, the price trend of lithium salt still depends on the market supply and demand pattern, and will remain high in the short term. As for when the price inflection point comes, it depends on the expansion of mine output and the matching of downstream demand.
Traders panic and ship at low prices.
The recent price loosening of lithium carbonate began in June 165438+ 10/4. On the same day, the prices of several lithium carbonate forward contracts operated by Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center plummeted by more than 6%, among which lithium carbonate 2302 and 2303 both hit the biggest decline in contract history; At the same time, there have been rumors in the market that the upstream and downstream of the lithium battery industry chain have reduced production or even reduced production. Although the head battery factories such as Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., Yiwei Lithium Energy and Guo Xuan Hi-Tech later denied these rumors, the panic seems to have begun to spread.
"Traders are more clearly guided by emotions. Once they find that something is wrong, there will be panic selling. " The above-mentioned person from the cathode material factory said that by the end of the year, the demand for traders to withdraw funds is also relatively clear. Recently, the supply of low-priced goods in the market has increased, and it is not as difficult as before to buy lithium carbonate. I tried my best to find someone to buy lithium carbonate before. Recently, however, many channels have taken the initiative to promote lithium carbonate.
"Although there are not many sources of goods for traders, the price fluctuation is obvious, which will have a certain impact on the delivery price of manufacturers." Qu, an analyst in the lithium battery industry of Longzhong Information, told the Securities Times E reporter that once the price of lithium carbonate in the hands of traders becomes loose, it will quickly attract downstream customers to buy and divert existing procurement channels. Lithium carbonate producers feel that customers are not interested in buying at a high price, so they will make some adjustments to the price. Moreover, the increase of low-priced goods will also create an atmosphere of sufficient market supply, increase the bargaining chip between downstream customers and lithium salt manufacturers, and then suppress the price of lithium carbonate.
According to the data of Shanghai Steel Union, the average market price of battery-grade lithium carbonate on June 29th 165438 was 582,500 yuan/ton, which was 0.75 million yuan/ton lower than the previous high point. The average market price of this product of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. has been maintained at 567,000 yuan/ton since165438+1October 22nd. According to the research report of Everbright Securities, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 570,000 yuan/ton last week, which was the same as the previous week, and stopped rising for the first time since 18 weeks.
Qu said that at present, the shipping price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the market is about 575,000 yuan/ton-580,000 yuan/ton, and the price of manufacturers will be slightly higher, about 580,000 yuan/ton-590,000 yuan/ton.
It is worth mentioning that downstream customers generally have the mentality of buying up and not buying down. The more stagnant the price of lithium carbonate is, the weaker the downstream purchasing desire seems to be.
"Recently, it is obvious that the frequency of customer inquiries is not as high as before, and the willingness to buy has begun to weaken." A lithium carbonate producer in Central China admitted that the upstream and downstream are in a stalemate, and the acquisition of raw materials and the trading of lithium carbonate are almost in a semi-stagnant state. It is expected that this situation will continue until the end of 65438+February.
Downstream demand is less than expected, leading to emotional transmission.
In the opinion of most interviewees, the deep-seated reason why the current price of lithium carbonate has stopped falling is that the downstream demand of new energy vehicles is less than expected recently, and the optimism of the industrial chain has subsided.
According to the data of the Federation, the sales volume of new energy vehicles during this year 10 was 556,000, up 75% year-on-year, but down 9% month-on-month. Previously, the installation boom of new energy vehicles in the first four quarters of the state subsidy retreat did not arrive as scheduled.
According to the reporter of Securities Times E Company, in June 5438+065438+ 10, most car companies began fancy promotions such as price reduction and rights concessions, and the delivery cycle of most new energy car products that were not newly listed was shorter than before.
"The overall performance of the downstream is not as good as expected. Coupled with state subsidies, the market's expectations for the first quarter of next year are not particularly optimistic. The overall purchase intention of the lithium battery industry chain has weakened, and the terminal and midstream are in the destocking stage. " Qu told the reporter of Securities Times E Company.
The person from the aforementioned cathode material factory also said that the traditional off-season for consuming lithium batteries is1-April, and the off-season for power batteries is likely to occur in1-March next year, due to the withdrawal of subsidies and the price of raw materials. After the superposition of the two items, the market has a strong expectation of weak demand in the first quarter of 2023. After the pessimism is transmitted upwards, the price of lithium carbonate will inevitably be suppressed.
A lithium battery investor in South China believes that with the withdrawal of new energy vehicles from state subsidies next year, the pricing strategy of battery and other parts of vehicle manufacturers needs to be adjusted. This is a process of re-game. Before the game results are released, industrial chain enterprises will not blindly accumulate inventory, but tend to go into battle lightly.
However, the short-term decline of lithium carbonate price does not seem to mean the arrival of price inflection point. "The current price trend reflects the market sentiment more. In fact, the purchasing side as a whole is still in a state of tension. It can only be said that the demand for lithium carbonate has been postponed in stages. " The aforementioned lithium carbonate manufacturer said that according to our communication with downstream manufacturers, the price of lithium salt still has strong support, and the follow-up depends on the sales data of the terminal market.
Qu admitted that the quality of lithium carbonate on the market is uneven. Although the supply is increasing at present, the standard battery-grade lithium carbonate is actually in short supply. It is expected that lithium carbonate will remain at a high level before the end of the year.
When will the price inflection point come?
As a bottleneck in the industrial chain, the price fluctuation of lithium ore and lithium salt has been affecting the market nerve, and the discussion on the inflection point of its supply and demand pattern has never stopped.
165438+ 10 16, Australia's pilbara mining company, regarded as the "lithium price vane", held a new round of lithium concentrate auction. The final transaction price is 7804 USD/ton, which is 549 USD/ton higher than the last auction, or 7.6%. The cost of lithium carbonate is about 580,000 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the current market price.
Supported by the cost of lithium concentrate, lithium carbonate may be difficult to go down in the short term. Tianqi Lithium Industry said that the trend of lithium price mainly depends on the overall supply and demand pattern, market changes and economic situation of the lithium industry. From the demand, the company has confidence in the long-term development of the new energy industry; From the supply point of view, the downstream expansion of the industry is usually smooth and the cycle is short, while the upstream resource development is often affected by many factors, such as geographical restrictions, weather changes, environmental protection requirements, policy constraints, reserves scale, mining difficulties, infrastructure conditions and so on. The expansion cycle is longer and the corresponding risks are greater. In the case of mismatch between upstream and downstream expansion cycles, the supply of lithium products will continue to be in a relatively tight situation in the short to medium term, and it will take some time for the supply and demand pattern to reach a real balance. Jiangte Electric also believes that the time period from discovery to mining of lithium ore is relatively long, and the contradiction between supply and demand may last for a long time in the future.
Huaxi Securities Research Report pointed out that in 2023, the global output of lithium raw materials is expected to be about 6.5438 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, which is the same as the downstream demand expectation next year, but it does not rule out that the supply-side projects are lower than expected again, while the new construction and expansion of the upstream resource-side projects are lower than expected or the industry normal.
Recently, many industry coffees have predicted the inflection point of lithium salt prices. At the annual meeting of Hi-Tech Lithium Battery held recently, Zhang, chairman of Hi-Tech Lithium Battery, predicted that the tight supply and demand of lithium carbonate will continue in the first half of 2023, and the price of lithium carbonate will remain above 520,000 yuan. The relationship between supply and demand began to ease in the second half of the year, and it is expected to remain above 450,000 yuan; By 2024, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to fall below 400,000 yuan. Jinfu Xu, chairman of Tianci Materials, said that after five years, the price of lithium carbonate will fall below 200,000 yuan/ton, but the high probability will not fall below 1.25 million yuan; Liu Jincheng, chairman of Yiwei Lithium Energy, also said that it is expected that the whole industrial chain will be surplus starting from lithium mines at the latest next year.
Of course, the healthy development of lithium battery industry depends on the cooperation between upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. 165438+ 10/8, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration of Market Supervision issued a notice on the coordinated and stable development of the lithium-ion battery industry chain, pointing out that there is a serious imbalance between supply and demand in the domestic lithium-ion battery industry chain, and the upstream and downstream docking is not smooth. There are hoarding and unfair competition in some areas, blind expansion of production capacity in some links, and low-quality and low-price competition from time to time. Based on this, the circular requires industry authorities and enterprises to adhere to scientific planning, strengthen the docking of supply and demand, establish a long-term mechanism through signing long-term orders and technical cooperation, guide upstream and downstream to stabilize expectations, clarify quantity and price, ensure supply, and achieve win-win cooperation; At the same time, strengthen supervision and inspection to ensure the supply of high-quality lithium battery products.