Analysis of Rebar Market
In mid-April, the rising trend of rebar prices came to an end and the prices gradually went down. In the face of this wave of decline, the market began to disagree. Under the interaction of iron ore, coking coal, international commodity market and national policies, where will the market trend go in the later period?
First of all, as a kind of steel product with low added value, the cost of rebar greatly affects its market price. Although steel mills have not reached an agreement on the agreed price of iron ore, at present, domestic large and medium-sized steel mills import iron ore at the price of 105 USD/ton, and buy a certain proportion of spot ore in the spot market as a supplement; The price of coke is relatively stable, and the price of secondary metallurgical coke is about 1950 yuan/ton; Tangshan scrap price is 2700 yuan/ton; The average cost of large and medium-sized steel mills is estimated to be about 4 100 yuan/ton, and the cost of small steel mills is about 4300 yuan/ton. Furthermore, if the negotiated price in the third quarter is based on the average price in the second quarter according to the quarterly pricing method, then the current price of 62% grade FISQ2 in the second quarter is about 157 USD/ton, and the negotiated price of iron ore in the third quarter will greatly exceed the current price 105 USD/ton; In addition, coal ushered in the peak demand season, and coke remained strong. Then the cost of steel will rise again in the third quarter, which will support the price of rebar.
Secondly, the possibility of imbalance between supply and demand increases. Real estate policy frequently increases the uncertainty of demand. Real estate demand plays an important role in the consumption of rebar, and its prosperity and return to work area have a great influence on the demand of rebar. 1-April, the newly started area of real estate increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 64. 1%, which shows that there is still a certain demand for threads during the period. However, in recent days, in order to control housing prices and prevent bubbles, the state has continuously introduced real estate control policies. Such a strict control policy has a great negative impact on the enthusiasm of real estate development in the later period, and the area of new construction and resumption of work is limited, so the long-term consumption of rebar is facing a greater test. Under the supply pressure of mass production in steel mills, the price pressure of rebar is greater.
According to the production law of steel mills, the rebar output will still increase in the next three quarters, the capacity utilization rate will exceed 90%, and the market supply pressure will further increase. If the construction area of real estate will shrink rapidly as mentioned in this paper, the downstream demand will be greatly suppressed, so the possibility of rebar price showing weakness is too high.