On March 9, in the screenshot of the notice of early recovery of personal loan of a bank in Shanghai Branch provided by an insider, the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald saw that on June 5, 1 bank lent 5 million yuan, and the customer was required to repay it on 202 1 day because the customer "failed to fulfill the relevant provisions in Article 4 of the loan contract".
According to industry sources, banks in Shanghai have recently launched a rigorous review of the inflow of operating loans into the stock market and the property market, which is a continuation of the regulation of the property market at the beginning of the year. As early as April last year, the Shanghai headquarters of the central bank organized a real estate credit forum, and it was strictly forbidden to provide funds to property buyers in the form of consumer loans or operating loans.
Combined with the previous "three red lines" and "bank real estate loan concentration", the current regulatory focus has changed from restricting financing channels to restricting financing subjects. Restricting the source of funds for housing enterprises through "enterprise-specific policies" and "line-specific policies" is more detailed and strict than before, which has played an important role in implementing the long-term real estate mechanism.
Adjust the subsequent pointer
On March 3, the Office of the Leading Group for the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Hangzhou issued the Notice on Further Regulating the Order of the Real Estate Market, clearly and strictly preventing operating loans and consumer loans from illegally flowing into the real estate market. It is strictly forbidden to issue personal business loans and consumer loans used to pay down payment for house purchase or repay down payment loan funds, strictly examine the authenticity of personal business loans and consumer loans, and strengthen post-loan fund management.
As soon as the "capital" control policy came out, some property market plates in Shanghai and Hangzhou, which are mainly investors, changed very obviously. A large number of second-hand housing stores in Hangzhou were removed from the shelves, and investors began to wait and see. The owners were unwilling to cut prices in a short time, and the transaction declined. The aforementioned insiders pointed out that under the current policy environment, the market may change at any time.
The reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald learned that recently, the salesmen of financial institutions have different opinions when selling credit loan products. "Every project has a corresponding bank, and we have a way to help you apply." A salesman told Chen Xiaoming (not his real name) on the phone that although the approval of commercial loans is very strict, there are still ways to avoid monitoring.
With the outflow of the notice of early loan recovery, some consumers began to wait and see the market.
At the same time as the policy of strictly checking the inflow of commercial loans and consumer loans into the property market, there is also the purchase restriction policy of Hangzhou French auction house. On the same day, Shanghai also issued a five-year restriction on the sale of properties purchased by priority buyers. After the introduction of a series of policies in Shanghai and Hangzhou, the market enthusiasm began to decline after the superposition of previous policy effects. According to the third-party data, in February of 20021year, there were about 1.9 million sets of second-hand houses in Shanghai, a sharp decrease of 57.06% from the previous month. According to the data from February 1 to February 2 1, the number of first-hand housing transactions halved year-on-year.
The regulation of the real estate market is left by supervision, and the reserve policy is far more than that. Moreover, in regulating the market, the investigation and handling of illegal cases has gradually become open and transparent. A few days ago, the Shanghai Housing Authority, the Municipal Market Supervision Bureau and the Municipal Urban Management Enforcement Bureau investigated and notified six typical cases of violations of laws and regulations, mainly involving illegal advertisements, illegal contracts and fraudulent consumers.
Among them, Shanghai Qi Xing Real Estate Agency Co., Ltd. helps the parties to sign contracts with different transaction prices in the process of providing brokerage services, and obtains bank loans at high housing transaction prices.
In fact, in order to avoid tax, there are many low transaction prices in Shanghai second-hand housing transactions. In order to rectify the market chaos, Shanghai Real Estate Agency Industry Association launched the integrity (credit) information platform of real estate brokerage industry last year, and publicized the blacklist every month.
Extruded foam
One background of this series of regulation and control of first-tier cities and new first-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta is the rapid rise of real estate prices. On the one hand, housing enterprises regard the Yangtze River Delta as a key investment area, and spare no expense to lay out the Yangtze River Delta; The pressure of rising house prices in first-tier cities and new first-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta is obvious. On the other hand, based on the data of third-party organizations, in 2020, Shanghai's residential sales area14,340,700 square meters increased by 5.9%; The online signing area of second-hand houses was 22,462,300 square meters, an increase of 24.4%, hitting a new high in nearly four years.
The turnover of new houses in Hangzhou in 2020 152836 sets, a record high in the past three years; Although the second-hand housing did not skyrocket, after the regulation of the first-hand housing, funds began to flow into the second-hand housing.
The pressure of rising house prices in cities above 202 1 still exists. 1 Since the end, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has visited Shanghai, Hangzhou, Wuxi and other places to supervise and implement the long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Regulatory policies have been introduced in various places, all pointing to the risk of real estate asset bubbles.
On March 2nd, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the situation of promoting the high-quality development of the banking and insurance industry, and answered questions from reporters. Regarding real estate, Guo Shuqing, Party Secretary of the People's Bank of China and Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that the trend of real estate financialization and bubble is still relatively strong, but the momentum has been curbed. In 2020, the growth rate of real estate loans was lower than that of various loans for the first time in eight years; Now, various cities "one city, one policy" have introduced control measures aimed at stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations; Many people buy houses not for living, but for investment or speculation, which is very dangerous.
Some analysts of Ping An Securities pointed out that regulators still believe that the core problem in the real estate sector is the relatively large bubble. Earlier, Guo Shuqing pointed out that real estate is the biggest "grey rhinoceros" in China's financial risks at this stage. This time, he reiterated that real estate tends to be financialized and bubbled, indicating the determination of the regulatory authorities to prevent and resolve real estate risks. It is expected that the real estate financing environment will remain stable and tight, and the implementation of policies will be relatively strong.
The first thing to prevent asset bubbles is to control price bubbles. On the other hand, on the eve of the Spring Festival, Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau issued three announcements in succession, announcing the establishment of a reference price release mechanism for second-hand housing transactions, becoming the first city in China to implement second-hand "guiding prices". After the opening of the year, Wuxi, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu and other cities followed suit, pointing at the inflated second-hand housing prices. Taking Shanghai as an example, the transaction volume of the second-hand housing market dropped significantly. In February, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai was10.9 million sets, which was half of that in June.
After the local government offered a series of policy combination boxing, the market fever was effectively curbed, and the Spring Festival factors were superimposed. In February, the indicators of second-hand housing dropped significantly, and the market had a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.
Judging from the number of tourists reflected by Shanghai Chain Home and Shanghai Zhongyuan, the number of tourists dropped significantly in February, down 44% from the previous month, and the number of new tourists also decreased. In terms of sub-loop, the average price outside the suburban ring even showed a year-on-year negative growth.
Yang, chief analyst of Shanghai Chain Home Research Institute, pointed out that at present, the pilot lottery system for new houses has ensured the demand of just-needed buyers to a certain extent, while the second-hand housing market is dominated by just-needed buyers, or a part of it has been diverted to the new house market.
Hangzhou, a few days ago, it was clearly stipulated that intermediaries should not accept and publish listing information whose listing price is obviously higher than the reasonable transaction price. This directly leads to the future market segments with relatively high investor accounts such as Science and Technology City, Olympic Sports Center, Shenhua and Sandun North, and a large number of houses have been removed from the shelves in recent days.
According to official data, up to now, the intermediary agency * * * has inspected more than 33,000 suites, sorted out and verified 985 suites with suspected problems, and removed more than 660 suites.
Although it is not as obvious as Hangzhou, the turnover of second-hand houses in Shanghai halved in February, and the inflection point looms.
An intermediary in Shanghai believes that after the price bubble was squeezed, the transaction also declined accordingly. Generally speaking, before and after the Spring Festival in Shanghai, the transaction volume of the second-hand housing market before Xiaoyangchun was around 20,000 sets, and now it seems to have fallen back to the normal level of 1.9 million sets. How effective the policy is, we need to wait and see the market situation in March and April.