Second, the bubble problem in China. The biggest danger facing China is that China is creating bubbles in the economic and financial fields. The bubble here means that the government and enterprises attract investment irrationally, expecting to get high returns. As a result, this expectation is getting higher and higher, and finally a vicious circle of investment is formed. Just like all bubble investments-the Japanese real estate bubble in the 1980s, the Internet bubble exposed in the United States in the 1990s, and the real estate bubble in western countries from 265,438 to the beginning of the 20th century-all bubbles will not exist forever. Sometimes the bubble will shrink slowly, but in most cases it will burst sharply and have a serious negative impact.
Third, in some cases, due to the lack of real and useful information, the lack of transparency will lead to "excessive excitement" in the market, thus aggravating the bubble in the financial market. Moreover, in a new world controlled by emotions and psychology and dominated by the market, "sporadic sparks" caused by trade protectionism or regionalism between countries may have huge disastrous consequences.
Fourth, in most cases, securitization is like baking powder, which can make a large piece of bread swell. But securitization itself has also caused a series of problems. On the one hand, securitization not only promotes the financialization of enterprise management, but also makes the investment market pay a huge price. During the economic and financial panic, the market is the most worrying, because the complex financial network built by securitization has been difficult to control effectively.
The industrialized world has ceded control of the global financial system to a very small group, which is composed of about 5,000 technology market experts scattered in investment banks, hedge funds and other financial institutions. These "insiders" are elites who are proficient in securitization operations-especially in times of crisis.
Sixth, China's financial system needs a method similar to securitization to better control financial risks and adjust investment targets. However, the state-owned banks that control China's financial system are still bloated and inefficient, and these banks lack effective means to invest in enterprises. So I see a very contradictory situation: securitization, which is very successful in industrialized countries, has experienced risks and setbacks in China-we find that securitization has fallen into a dilemma in China's financial field.
Seven, the financial market-since I engaged in business consulting in the mid-1980s-has become an uncertain "big boiler". Under the background of globalization, many reliable economic, financial and trade operation modes that have been tested by practice suddenly become inapplicable. There is no econometric model-a "black box" without a ready-made economic formula-to predict the future development trend. The huge flood of funds gathered by the free development of financial markets has shaken all economic and financial rules. In the end, it is innovation, not intuition, that determines the success of financial markets.
8. Japanese housewives suddenly became one of the biggest behind-the-scenes pushers in the global foreign exchange trading market. Together, they control a large part of Japanese residents' savings and become extremely skilled in choosing and buying high-yield overseas bonds.
Ninth, the two parties in America are rapidly deviating from the pro-globalization policy advocated by Clinton. The turmoil in the financial market and the weakness of the dollar obviously come not only from the credit uncertainty related to subprime mortgage, but also from the uncertainty of American political direction.
X in the long run, the subprime mortgage crisis will split the international financial system in two. On the one hand, the economic growth rate of the United States, Europe and Japan will be relatively slow, and the financial system will be strictly regulated, which will limit the growth rate of enterprises. On the other hand, countries including India and China have experienced rapid economic growth and large deposits. They will use coasting, offshore hedge funds, private enterprises and other investment tools that are gradually ignored by the West to achieve further expansion and fully control the rest of the world economy. Therefore, with the transfer of manufacturing control from the industrialized west to the Pacific coast, Asia will gain an overwhelming financial advantage, which is much faster than we thought. David smith made International Economy a must-read magazine about the world economy, and so did his book The World is Curved. Globalization is the subversion of the rules of the game in our time, and David Smick's insight into global capital flow is amazing. Anyone who wants to know about financial globalization and its policy implications should read this book. "
-Columbia University Business School R Glenn Hubbard
"David Smick has created a first-class work about the potential dangers of globalization, and I really can't bear to publish it."
-klausen, former President of the World Bank
"This is a timely and important analysis ..." The world is curved "made a" rock-breaking "analysis of the driving force of the world financial market. This book is easy to understand for foreign banks and financial policy makers, and also has profound instruction. "
-Yoichi Funabashi, editor-in-chief of Asahi Shimbun
The World is Curved explores our fragile international financial system, which is unpredictable and difficult to repair. So David Smick said that our world is not flat, and our globalized world is bumpy. "
-james schlesinger, former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, former secretary of defense and former director of the Central Intelligence Agency.
David Smick let readers know the secrets of the global financial system in a unique way. With the help of fascinating stories, he made us realize that although this complex system has created huge profits, it has also brought us huge risks. In addition, he also proposed measures to deal with this risk. "
-Stanford University, john tyler
"David Smick is absolutely right: the world is curved. We cannot foresee the future, especially in the context of the crisis. "
-Hans Tedmeyer, former president of the German central bank
The World is Curved is a very successful work after Thomas L. Friedman's The World is Flat. This book focuses on Friedman's omissions and convincingly explains the important but incomprehensible role of the financial system that provides basic support for the world economy. "
-Murray Veidenbaum, Washington University in St. Louis.
"The world is curved. Even high above the satellite can't see the whole picture of the earth at once. But David Smick led us to see the' panorama of the earth'-from Washington to Beijing and then to other places. "
-Peter B. Kane, a famous professor of economics at Princeton University
"The world is curved and fascinating. It explains to us how politics and economy are inseparable. It clearly analyzes the risks, successes and failures faced by the global financial market today. "
-Hotmar Essien, former member of the Executive Committee of the European Central Bank and chief economist.
"The World Is Curved is full of guesses, methodical explanations and fascinating contents-it is a must-read book."
-pedro pablo kuczynski, former Prime Minister of Peru
"A clear and profound interpretation of the global financial system. Readers who read this book will definitely get useful supplies from it. "
-Edwin M. Truman, former director of the International Finance Department of the Federal Reserve Board.
"An insider's perfect explanation of the global capital market is very real and fascinating." The world is crooked "explains to us ... why the next 30 years will be as dangerous as the past. "
-Gary Clyde Hofbauer Peterson Institute for International Economics.
"An insightful insider led us on a fascinating journey to understand the global economy and financial system. After reading this book, readers will be able to easily analyze such problems. "
-Michael boskin, Professor of Economics at Stanford University.
"In the book" The World is Curved ",David Smick explained to us many uncertainties in the financial market at the end of the American century."
-Allen melzer, a famous economist at Carnegie Mellon University.
"David Smick had a profound and controversial discussion on the main problem of our times-where should we go?"
—— michael steinhardt steinhardt Fund Management Company
"In the past 30 years, David Smick has always been at the forefront of the great changes in global finance. If you want to explore the development and changes of global finance, then I suggest you read The World is Curved. "
-Peter Fisher, former vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of new york.
"Financial innovation, including the use of new electronic technologies, enables companies and individuals to complete their daily business more effectively, and also better avoid all kinds of risks they have to face. But these innovations also make companies and individuals take on new risks that they have never faced before. Why sometimes the progress of technology will lead to the deterioration of the situation? When risks are intertwined with technological progress, why don't people involved know how to avoid these risks? In the book "The World is Curved", David Smick provides a lot of examples to explain how unpredictable results disrupt the world financial market and how these processes end. "
Benjamin M. Friedman, a professor at Harvard University, is the author of The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth.
"Our world is indeed curved. I don't think anyone can lead us to understand this global capital market better than David Smick. " The World is Curved will take you through Smick's life journey as an investor, hedge fund manager, central bank governor and policy-making consultant in the past 30 years. After reading this book, you will have a deep understanding of the recent financial history of our world and the financial risks we are currently facing. "
-William Crystal, editor-in-chief of Flag Weekly
The World is Curved explains the current global financial problems in a vivid and Beethoven-like way. "
-Norbert Walter, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Group
"In this rapidly changing era of information globalization, David Smick is a pioneer. Who else can better present us with the latest information about globalization? "
-Ron Insana, partner of Insana Capital, senior analyst of American Consumer News and Business Channel.
"A book worth reading. This book makes a thorough and sensitive analysis of the fragile financial markets in the world. "
-Honorary President of Hearst siebert Kiel Institute for World Economics.
"This book defines financial globalization as a system that will bring us great chaos and financial panic, but at the same time, it is also a goose that will lay golden eggs. Finally, The World is Curved also raised hope and expressed his confidence. "
-Lei Natuo Ruchilo, former Director-General of the World Trade Organization.
"A fascinating and readable book makes a multi-dimensional analysis of our rapidly changing world today."
-Charles Dallara, President of the International Finance Association.
The World is Curved raises very important questions, which are worthy of our in-depth discussion. "
-Former British Chancellor of the Exchequer nigel lawson