First, the oil price "reversed", and the oil price "fell for four consecutive days" next Tuesday!
As we all know, in the first half of this year, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified the pressure of international energy shortage. Crude oil prices have risen sharply, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices have also risen. Previously, the price of No.92 gasoline once rose to 9.3 1 yuan /L, and consumers were under great travel pressure. However, recently, due to economic downside risks and international inflationary pressures, oil prices have ushered in a three-day losing streak, and consumers have spent nearly 40 to 50 yuan less on filling up a tank of oil.
However, in the current pricing cycle, the price of crude oil changed obviously in the first four working days. However, with the increase in the output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the increase in oil exports from Libya and Saudi Arabia, and the downward pressure on the international economy, the price of crude oil continued to fall. On August 5th, this pricing cycle entered the eighth working day, and the change rate of crude oil price was -0.99%. Among them, the price of WTI crude oil was 88.54 USD/barrel, and Brent crude oil fell to 94.65438+.
However, compared with the previous working day, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have fallen by nearly 100 yuan/ton. At present, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 48 yuan/ton based on the crude oil change rate of -0.99%. Although it is still in the "stranded" stage of oil price adjustment, there is still a risk of further decline in international crude oil prices. If the change of crude oil price continues to decline in the next two working days,
Now the downward trend of oil prices is gradually taking shape. However, at present, the price of gasoline and diesel in various regions of China continues to adjust on July 26th. In Shandong, the current price of No.92 gasoline is maintained at 8.52 yuan /L, and the price of No.95 gasoline is maintained at 9. 14 yuan/L. See the figure below for oil prices in other regions!
Second, the pig price fell sideways, and the market was in a dilemma!
Recently, in my hometown of Shandong, the price of local ordinary pork hovered around 17~20 yuan/kg. The price of pork was on the high side, and the downstream consumption enthusiasm was poor, so there was some anti-consumption sentiment in the market.
In the domestic pig market, in August, pig prices continued to change rapidly. On August 5, the price of pigs fluctuated and fell. The national average price of live pigs dropped to 2 1.5 1 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs dropped by 0. 15 yuan/kg. The market showed a narrow decline!
Judging from the regional markets in China, on August 5th, most pig prices showed a downward trend. Only the pig price in South China rose against the trend, and the pig price in Guangdong rose to 24. 1 yuan/kg! In the traditional low-price area, the northeast market and Heijiliao area, the pig price dropped to 20.5 yuan/kg one after another, and the pig price showed a narrow downward trend. Pig prices in East China, North China, Southwest China and Central China fluctuated lower!
At present, judging from the market partition quotation, although the pig price has fallen, the decline is limited and the market performance is relatively divided!
On the one hand, the consumer market lacks effective support.
Affected by the high temperature weather and the rising enthusiasm of residents for fruit and vegetable consumption, the demand for meat products has dropped sharply, and there is more pressure on consumption constraints. However, the supply of white pigs in slaughterhouses has decreased, and the price of pork in the terminal market is relatively stable, and the price has been sideways high. In many rural grass-roots markets, the price of pork hovers around 16 ~ 20 yuan/kg!
However, due to the slow delivery of pork in the downstream market, the operating rate of slaughterhouses dropped significantly. At present, the operating rate of machinery in slaughterhouses above designated size in China is less than 20%, slaughterhouses have reduced pig collection, downstream orders are insufficient, and the sentiment of price reduction is still hovering at a high level!
On the other hand, the breeding end is emotionally divided! At present, the slaughter volume of large pig enterprises is increasing, and the enthusiasm of downstream traders for receiving goods is biased. And some retail pig farms, especially those in Northeast China, have a certain reluctance to sell. As some low-priced pig sources in Northeast China actively fell below 20 yuan/kg, retail pig farms have a sense of carrying prices, and the market is divided. The pig sources from slaughterhouses to factories are extremely unstable, and the mood of keeping prices down is constantly changing!
Therefore, in the short term, due to the differentiation of pig supply in the market, pig prices may continue to fluctuate at the bottom, and the market lacks obvious room for ups and downs. However, after entering the middle and late August, the expectation of a rebound in pig prices gradually emerged!
Third, food prices are low, and wheat and corn are hard to rise!
Recently, the wheat and corn markets have shown weak fluctuations, among which, according to the latest data, the price of wheat has slowed down. Among them, the wheat prices of Daming Wudeli, Xuzhou Huasheng Flour, Shandong Lu Qing Flour, Linyi Wudeli and Anyang Yihai Kerry have dropped 10 yuan/ton, and the prices of mainstream flour mills in Shandong, Hebei and Henan are hovering at 65,438 yuan.
Recently, although the wheat price continues to fluctuate weakly, the focus of wheat quotation of mainstream enterprises has not declined. At present, it is still maintained at 1.55 yuan/kg! According to industry insiders, the recent decline in wheat prices has weakened the grain selling sentiment of traders and grassroots farmers. The wheat in flour mills is not enough, and the support of enterprises to suppress prices has weakened! In August, although the machine operating rate of the flour mill was insufficient at the beginning of the month, and the downstream flour delivery was not smooth, after entering the middle and late August, the flour mill was boosted by students' return to school and double-festival consumption, and the operating rate of enterprises will be greatly improved, and the demand for wheat will also be greatly increased. Although the factory wheat is increasing, the market tends to make up the position at a low price, so it is difficult for the wheat price to continue to fall after entering the middle and late August.
In the corn market, domestic spot corn continues to fluctuate weakly. From the demand side, at present, the demand mood of feed mills is poor, and the corn purchasing mood is depressed, while the deep processing enterprises have poor inventory products and great pressure to go to capacity. The operating rate of enterprises is low, corn stocks are relatively sufficient, the mood of waiting and cautiously replenishing stocks is high, and the mood of corn price increase is biased!
Due to the recent continuous decline in corn prices, traders' grain production sentiment is depressed. However, the number of factories in Shandong Province has decreased, and enterprises also lack the enthusiasm to raise prices. Some traders are emotionally divided and pessimistic mood is fermented. In Shandong province, the number of corn delivered by enterprises has increased to more than 400 cars, and the sentiment of enterprises to lower prices has rebounded. Many factories in China have reduced prices to collect grain!
Among them, in Northeast China, spot corn is mainly stable and weak. The quotations of Kailu Wang Yu, Qinggang Longfeng and Liangjing Longjiang enterprises are lowered by 6~ 10 yuan/ton, and the quotations of mainstream corn are 1.3~ 1.35 yuan/kg! However, in Shandong, many factories cut prices to collect grain, and the price of corn dropped by 10 ~ 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Qixing lemon fell by 40 yuan, with the execution price of 1.4 19 yuan/kg.
Taian Xiangrui's quotation dropped by 26 yuan, and the execution price was 1.399 yuan/kg. The quotations of mainstream enterprises in Shandong have dropped to 1.362~ 1.467 yuan/kg, and most factories have quoted 1.37~ 1.43 yuan/kg!
According to industry analysts, due to the weak demand side, corn is in short supply and the price is still weak and volatile. However, at present, the quotations of most factories in Shandong have gradually fallen below 1.4 yuan/kg, and the prices have fallen below the cost line for traders to open positions. Therefore, traders are reluctant to sell, and the circulation of corn in the market is reduced. After entering the end of August, the temperature gradually dropped and the inventory of enterprises continued to be consumed.
The oil price "reversed" and it will fall for four consecutive days next Tuesday! What happened to the early warning and escalation of pig prices and food prices? What do you think of this?