Delphi and other expert consultation methods are widely used in various fields, especially in decision-making and forecasting. The core idea of this method is to collect and summarize experts' opinions and suggestions by sending out a consultation form to experts, and then conduct multiple rounds of feedback and summary in an anonymous way, and finally get relatively consistent prediction or decision-making results.
The advantages of Delphi method and other expert consultation methods mainly include:
Brainstorming: By collecting the opinions and suggestions of many experts and comprehensively considering the professional knowledge and experience in different fields, the accuracy and comprehensiveness of decision-making and prediction can be improved.
Anonymity: feedback and summary in an anonymous way can eliminate the mutual influence and pressure between experts and ensure the independence and objectivity of opinions and suggestions.
Feedback mechanism: through many rounds of feedback and summary, the opinions and suggestions of experts can be fully exchanged and discussed, and finally a relatively consistent conclusion can be drawn.
Strong adaptability: Delphi and other expert consultation methods can be applied to different fields and problems, and the questionnaire content and feedback method can be adjusted according to the actual situation to meet the actual needs.
The shortcomings of Delphi and other expert consultation methods mainly include:
High time cost: due to the need for multiple rounds of feedback and summary, the time cost of the whole process is high, so it is necessary to arrange the time nodes reasonably.
Strong subjectivity: Experts' judgments and opinions are subjective and may be influenced by personal experience, knowledge and emotions, thus affecting the objectivity and accuracy of the final results.
It is difficult to determine the appropriate number of experts: when applying Delphi and other expert consultation methods, it is necessary to determine the appropriate number of experts to ensure the representativeness and comprehensiveness of the results. However, it is not easy to determine the appropriate number of experts, and the comprehensive influence of various factors needs to be considered.