The risk of technological innovation is a manageable speculative risk.
Risk theory divides risk into pure risk and speculative risk. Pure risk refers to the risk of losing opportunities without making profits, such as fire and earthquake. There are only two possible consequences, namely loss or no loss. Speculative risk refers to the risk of both loss opportunities and profit opportunities. There are three possible consequences: profit, loss, no profit and no loss, such as risks in stock investment and business activities. Speculative risk is attractive to different degrees because it is profitable, which makes people take risks for the benefit.
1 The risk of technological innovation belongs to speculative risk. The main body of innovation hopes to obtain the expected benefits through successful technological innovation. However, under the influence of external factors and internal factors, there are three possible results of technological innovation system: first, innovation is successful and the expected goal is achieved; Second, the innovation failed, failing to reach the expected goal, and even unable to recover the funds invested in the early stage; Third, technological innovation has not achieved the expected results, only the input and income are basically the same. Therefore, in terms of risk types, technological innovation risk belongs to speculative risk.
2 Technological innovation risk is a dynamic risk with complexity. That is, changes in external factors or internal factors of technological innovation system, such as changes in economy, society, technology, policies and markets, and inadequate management in R&D, market research and marketing, may all lead to risks. The so-called static risk refers to the risk of loss caused by abnormal changes in natural forces or mistakes in human behavior, such as earthquakes and fires.
The risk of technological innovation can be prevented and controlled to some extent. Technological innovation is a purposeful and organized technical and economic activity. Through the organization and management of technological innovation system, especially through establishing risk awareness and perfecting risk management, the occurrence and development of risk loss can be prevented and controlled to a certain extent, and the controlled technological innovation activities can develop towards the expected goal.
The failure result caused by technological innovation risk can be changed under certain conditions. For example, after the failure of American companies, TV sets and electronic watches were perfected and developed by Japanese companies and finally succeeded. In fact, some risk factors that affect technological innovation can be controlled. After changing some controllable factors, the result of the original failure can be changed.
5. Technological innovation risk is a manageable risk. Although the risk of technological innovation cannot be completely eliminated, on the whole, the innovation subject with perfect management of technological innovation can effectively prevent and control some risk factors, and the possibility of successful technological innovation will be relatively higher. Therefore, in order to achieve the success of technological innovation, we must improve the management of technological innovation and strengthen the risk management of technological innovation. Peter drucker, a famous American management scientist, said: There are many successful innovators and entrepreneurs, but none of them have a' hobby of adventure'. ..... They are successful precisely because they can identify risks and limit them within a certain range, and precisely because they can systematically analyze the sources of innovation opportunities, and then accurately find out where the opportunities are and use them. They are not concerned with risks, but with opportunities. "
The risk of technological innovation is the risk in the rational process.
In the process of technological innovation, it is bound to be influenced by many variable and uncertain factors that are difficult to estimate in advance. These factors make the result of technological innovation uncertain. However, the process of technological innovation is dominated by the rational behavior of the innovation subject, and it is not a random process with strong uncertainty that people imagine or think. Because, in the process of technological innovation, all work is carried out purposefully and organized, and each stage contains logical and rational behaviors such as analysis, evaluation, decision-making and implementation. The risk analysis matrix of technological innovation [3] In the process of technological innovation from innovation idea to R&D → development → pilot test → production → marketing, there may be technological risks, capital risks, market risks, management risks, policy risks, or risks with different characteristics such as technology, market, management and decision-making, and these risks have different distributions at different stages of the innovation process. Technical innovation risk analysis matrix technical risk market risk financial risk production risk management risk policy risk innovation concept research evaluation research development pilot batch production market sales innovation subject needs to analyze these possible risk factors before and during the process. On the one hand, risk management measures can be taken to keep risks under control, prevent risks and reduce possible losses caused by risks. On the other hand, we can develop new products according to the needs of target customers and the requirements of enterprise development strategy, and formulate and implement effective marketing strategies through perfect technological innovation management, such as conducting market research, evaluating innovative ideas, formulating and implementing effective marketing strategies, etc., so that technological innovation activities can achieve their goals. In fact, the innovation risks faced by enterprises with different comprehensive technological innovation capabilities are obviously different. Enterprises with strong comprehensive innovation ability have a much higher success rate in innovation. The research results of some technological innovation investigation projects prove this point [1, 2]. Some studies believe that [4]: the reason why the failure rate of new products can remain stable for 25 years is the long-term improvement of new product management ability. Maintaining this stability may mean great efforts. Therefore, in the increasingly fierce market competition, rational analysis of technological innovation risks and efforts to improve the level of technological innovation management and risk management are the basic measures to prevent and control technological innovation risks.
Second, marketing risk refers to the possibility that the marketing strategy formulated and implemented by the enterprise is not in harmony with the development and changes of the enterprise marketing environment (including micro-environment and macro-environment), which leads to the difficulty in the smooth implementation of marketing strategy, the shrinkage or disappearance of the target market, the difficulty in the smooth sales of products and the inability to achieve profit targets. It has the characteristics of objectivity, contingency, variability and speculation.
Thirdly, on the basis of expounding the theory of industrial cluster, this paper systematically analyzes the six elements contained in the internal mechanism of industrial cluster in venture capital industry. This paper sums up four modes of venture capital industrial clusters in reality: industry-related, resource-sharing, knowledge-intensive and external force-driven, and connecting with the present situation and existing problems of venture capital industrial clusters in China, puts forward some suggestions on promoting the development of venture capital industrial clusters in China.
Keywords: venture capital industrial cluster mechanism
As a high-risk, combined, long-term, equity and professional investment method, venture capital has shown its unique role in promoting the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, promoting the development of high-tech industries, supporting innovators to start businesses, and helping investors get better returns in recent years. Throughout the successful venture capital industries in various countries, we can find that they all have one thing in common, that is, most of them exist in the form of clusters, such as the world-famous Silicon Valley in the United States, Cambridge Science and Technology Park in the United Kingdom, Hsinchu Science and Technology Park in Taiwan Province Province, Tsukuba in Japan and Bangalore in India. If the development of venture capital industry is a world-wide concern, then its cluster development is a new form of economic organization. Although many scholars at home and abroad have conducted in-depth discussions on industrial clusters, few people have systematically studied the cluster phenomenon of venture capital industry. So, what causes the cluster effect of venture capital industry? This paper will make an in-depth analysis of this in order to enlighten and help the strategic layout and development direction of venture capital in China.
1 interpretation of industrial cluster theory
Industrial cluster has always been the focus of regional economic research. The traditional industrial zone theory, represented by Marshall, is the earliest systematic research on it. This theory holds that the more enterprises in the same industry in a regional cluster, the more favorable it is for the agglomeration of production factors used by enterprises. The more factors of production are supplied, the lower the average production cost of the whole industry, and the more specialized the factors of production, the higher the production efficiency will be. In addition, this theory organically combines economies of scale, geography, culture and politics to form a good environment for enterprise development, which in turn will promote the realization of external economy between enterprises and various organizations.
Another explanation of industrial cluster is the new industrial zone theory based on the cooperation and competition of small and medium-sized enterprises. This theory reveals the internal driving force of the development of new industrial zones and their regional socio-economic characteristics, which are inseparable from the functions of local society. In the industrial zone, people have the same values, mutual cooperation and trust. The theory also pays attention to the external environment, pointing out that the relationship between enterprises should be completely equal, and the formation of enterprise networks and the continuous learning and accumulation of various actors in the process of multilateral transactions make innovation develop continuously. Porter also analyzed the phenomenon of industrial cluster agglomeration from the perspective of innovation. The whole theoretical framework includes four aspects: demand situation, factor conditions, competitive strategy and industrial cluster, because an industry must have these four conditions if it wants to be competitive internationally.
The new economic geography theory represented by Krugman discusses the motivation of industrial clusters from the perspective of economic geography. He reintroduced geographical factors into economic analysis, and discussed the issue of industrial clusters from the perspective of the impact of trade costs on the location choice of enterprises. He explained through a simple two-region model that in order to achieve economies of scale and minimize transportation costs, a country or region makes manufacturing enterprises choose places with large market demand. On the other hand, the demand of big market depends on the distribution of manufacturing industry, and finally forms the so-called center-periphery model. However, Krugman only analyzes the motivation of industrial clusters through the relationship between industries, without considering other environmental factors, which challenges the application of his conclusion.
2 Analysis of the internal mechanism of venture capital industry cluster
2. 1 Interdependent industrial network system
Porter believes that any enterprise can create a low-cost competitive advantage by restructuring the value chain. With the development of social division of labor and specialization, it is either impossible or expensive for an enterprise to complete the innovation of the whole value chain alone. Venture capital is a complex system involving a wide range, and its operation process is difficult to be completed by only one enterprise. If the leading venture enterprises persuade other enterprises to join, form a team with reasonable knowledge structure and let them complete the supporting technological innovation, it will gain the advantage of reducing costs for venture enterprises and other related enterprises. It is this specialization that forms the interdependent network industrial cluster of venture enterprises, and its existence is based on the difference between the total value (VGi) created by the venture enterprise cluster and the value (Vi) created by a single venture enterprise δ=∑VGi-∑Vi. Among them, δ can be regarded as the external economy gained by venture enterprises due to geographical proximity, or the extra knowledge spillover gained by venture enterprises due to cooperation and trust, and its size depends on the number, specialization and innovation quality of venture enterprises in the network. The greater the δ, the stronger the enterprise cluster will be, and a long-term diversified contract mechanism will be formed. These contracts can effectively reduce costs and promote joint development and innovation among venture enterprises. The success of Silicon Valley is due to its regional interdependent industrial network system. There are not only leading global enterprises such as Hewlett-Packard, Netscape, Intel and Apple, but also many interrelated small risk enterprises. 1999 By the end of March, there were about 4,800 science and technology venture enterprises with less than 50 employees, accounting for 80%. It is precisely because these large enterprises and thousands of small risk enterprises have risked their lives to promote and maintain the sustainable competitive advantage of Silicon Valley.
2.2 High-quality professionals
Almost all venture capitalists emphasize the importance of people, who are the first and the key to the success or failure of investment. Venture capitalists often say that they would rather invest in first-class people and second-rate projects than first-class projects and second-rate people. The human resources here include not only venture capital experts who are proficient in technology, management and finance, but also professionals in production, sales, technology, management and after-sales service. If there are a large number of professional and technical talents in a certain area, this area will be very attractive to venture enterprises that need this technology. At the same time, enterprises from different enterprises, different industries or related industries, as well as professional and technical employees within the same enterprise, can also transfer information and technology to each other through various formal and informal exchanges and cooperation, thus accelerating the spread of new ideas, new information and innovative technologies and further promoting the production of innovative technologies and the agglomeration of high-tech enterprises. Bangalore, India, for example, is the cradle of cultivating and reserving innovative talents. In addition to more than 10 famous scientific research institutes and universities since the 1950s, there are nearly 80 small engineering technical colleges, which can train 30,000 engineers every year, among which 1/3 are all kinds of software talents. In addition, there are nearly 20 million overseas Indians, many of whom have brought technology, capital, experience and innovative spirit to Bangalore, which has effectively promoted the development of Indian software industry.
2.3 Strong financial support
Venture capital is a kind of investment with high investment, high risk and high return. The rapid growth of venture enterprises requires the promotion of people and technology, as well as sufficient financial support. Therefore, in order to support the development of venture capital industry, governments all over the world have taken measures such as financial subsidies and setting up venture seed funds, but the government's investment is limited by its own financial situation, and there are differences in different regions, and the beneficiaries are limited to local venture enterprises. Facts have proved that government participation in venture capital is not an effective way to develop venture capital industry. In order to obtain sufficient venture capital, governments all over the world have adopted many preferential policies, strengthened the construction of capital market, and made the supply subject of venture capital develop into diversified capital investment. America is a typical example.
2.4 Innovative humanistic environment
A good humanistic environment is the key to the success of venture enterprises. In an environment full of innovative culture, we can abandon the traditional enterprise model, pursue the humanization and personalization of enterprises, and greatly mobilize ordinary people who control human capital. Under the innovative cultural atmosphere of "being brave in innovation, encouraging adventure, tolerating failure, advocating competition, being equal and open, enjoying knowledge, paying attention to cooperation, tolerating job-hopping and encouraging fission", people can support and cooperate with each other, thus accelerating the spread of new ideas, new concepts, information and innovative technologies, saving transaction costs, and finally making entrepreneurial enterprises flourish and stand out. For example, in Silicon Valley, everyone from top managers to ordinary employees is innovating. In Silicon Valley, information travels faster than anywhere else in the United States. Many engineers apply for jobs with the belief that creative small enterprises are far superior to large enterprises. This is also due to the unique national temperament of the United States, the core of which is the innovative spirit of "western development", which coincides with the venture capital in lucky chance and constitutes the soil for the emergence and development of venture capital industrial clusters.
2.5 A complete intermediary service system
Venture capital is a highly professional investment, which requires the comprehensive application of various professional knowledge. As a participant in venture capital activities, it is impossible to be a generalist or a generalist, so an intermediary agency providing professional services becomes an indispensable condition for the normal operation of venture capital. International experience shows that intermediary institutions are not only the necessary conditions for venture capital operation, but also the result of specialized division of labor in the era of knowledge economy. The soundness of a national intermediary institution is an important symbol of its venture capital concentration, and it is also an important guarantee for the smooth circulation and value-added of venture capital. Aggregation can enable venture enterprises to enjoy the external economies of scale brought by these intermediaries. The key to the gathering of many venture enterprises in Silicon Valley lies in the relatively perfect intermediary service institutions, which provide a good social security for the gathering of venture enterprises. 3 Industrial cluster model of venture capital industry
3. 1 industrial association type
Industrial correlation refers to the venture enterprise cluster mode formed by vertical and horizontal correlation of production. This type includes enterprises in the same industry that produce similar products or at the same production stage, and auxiliary enterprises that have direct upstream and downstream industrial chain relations and produce complementary products, accessories or professional services. Although the relationship between such venture enterprises is complex, it is often dominated by a few enterprises with direct upstream and downstream industrial links, and the rest enterprises either provide complementary products or supporting products for them, or provide professional services for all enterprises in the gathering area. For example, the development of computer industry needs the strong support of electronics, software and materials industries. Once they are all specialized, they can realize the large-scale operation of the computer industry.
3.2 resource * * * enjoyment type
Resource sharing refers to the entrepreneurial enterprise cluster model formed by enterprises benefiting from unique public resources in a certain region. The initial location of enterprises should consider the scope economy, and the resources that lead to the scope economy include product raw material system, infrastructure and information service system. Many similar or different types of venture enterprises have many resources, which is conducive to optimizing resource allocation.
3.3 Knowledge-intensive
Knowledge-intensive refers to the high-tech entrepreneurial enterprise cluster model formed by relying on universities and scientific research institutions. This is an enterprise cluster with great development potential formed since 1950s, among which Silicon Valley in the United States is an outstanding representative. This type of enterprise cluster is different from traditional enterprises: first, it requires high technical content, and most of them are high-tech enterprises; Second, it is greatly influenced by technological innovation, absorption and application, and is greatly influenced by the degree of technology commercialization; Third, the growth of venture enterprises is seriously affected by the technology life cycle and development direction; Fourth, high added value and high risk coexist in business operation.
3.4 External Force Driven Type
External force-driven mode refers to the venture enterprise cluster mode formed under the drive of exogenous environment. Exogenous environments are diverse, and the forms of clusters are also different. Most of the venture enterprises in high-tech industrial parks in the world belong to venture enterprise groups formed by national policy guidance and administrative deployment. Their clusters were not formed on the basis of professional division of labor at first, but the preferential policies and administrative allocation of the government played a great role. There is also a venture enterprise cluster based on the bilateral economic and trade relations and culture between the investment source country or region and the investment host country or region. For example, venture capital in China, Hong Kong and Macao is concentrated in the Pearl River Delta, investment in Taiwan Province Province is concentrated in Fujian, and Japanese investment is concentrated in Liaodong; There is also a venture enterprise group formed by the transformation and split of large enterprises. A typical example is a venture enterprise like Tsukuba, Japan. No matter what form the cluster belongs to, the final decisive factor to maintain and determine the sustainable development of the cluster is the industrial chain of venture enterprises, and the exogenous conditions cannot be maintained for a long time.
4 Analysis of the present situation of venture capital clusters in China
4. 1 The interdependent venture enterprise network system has not really formed.
Most venture enterprises in China are spatial clusters formed by providing land, administrative orders and preferential policies. This cluster model makes many venture enterprises mostly embedded by external superior conditions, rather than naturally derived from internal value chains. It is difficult for enterprises to form a specialized network system of division of labor and cooperation with their core competitiveness as the link, which eventually leads to "congenital deficiency" of enterprise clusters, insufficient integration of value chains, single structure, low degree of enterprise correlation and lack of synergy and embeddedness. With the expansion of reform and opening up, the regional policy gap is narrowing day by day, and this spatial agglomeration shows great vulnerability. When the land cost, labor price and other regional advantages and preferential tax policies in a certain area change, some venture enterprises in this area may flow to other places with more favorable policies.
4.2 Lack of high-quality venture capital talents
Venture capital is a modern new investment method, involving theories and knowledge of many disciplines, with strong practicality and high requirements for talents' quality, which directly determines the success or failure of venture capital. The current situation in China is that although there are a lot of scientific research achievements, there is a lack of talents with expertise in technology, management and finance to accurately evaluate its commercialization prospects, which makes most venture capital funds afraid to invest. Although scientific and technological personnel have entrepreneurial enthusiasm and strong innovation ability, they can't really realize the industrialization of scientific and technological achievements because of lack of knowledge and experience in management and financing. Although foreign capital and private capital have the intention of venture capital, it is difficult to find reliable agents because of lack of trust. These are all caused by the long-term lack of high-quality venture capital compound talents in China.
4.3 entrepreneurial enterprise cluster technology innovation ability is not strong
For high-tech risk industries with short product life cycle, an innovative product is more likely to reach the mature stage. At the mature stage, the profit of products decreases and the competition intensifies. At this time, the strategies for enterprises to continue to gain competitive advantage generally include differentiated competition and low-cost competition. Low-cost competition may be eliminated because of the lower cost of other venture enterprises, and enterprises that adopt differentiated competition must gain competitive advantage through continuous technological innovation. At present, China's technological innovation ability, especially sustainable innovation ability, is not strong, and most enterprises mainly introduce mature high-tech from abroad, which is an important reason for the weak competitiveness and unreasonable resource allocation of venture enterprises in China.
4.4 The source of funds for venture capital is not smooth
International experience shows that venture capital mainly comes from multi-channel private capital such as institutional investors and individuals. As the manager of public utilities, the government focuses on supporting venture capital through institutional arrangements. At present, the scale of venture capital in China is small, and the source of funds is too single. Most of them are obtained through direct investment from governments at all levels and state-owned enterprises. Due to monopoly, limited sources and contradiction with the nature of venture capital, excessive government participation will greatly restrict the development of private venture capital.
4.5 The intermediary service institutions of venture enterprises are not perfect.
Venture capital can not be separated from intermediary service institutions from financing, investment and withdrawal. It aims to eliminate the information asymmetry between investors and financiers, bridge the gap between capital supply and demand, and provide a platform for information consultation and training. At present, although some intermediary agencies have been established in China, most of them have poor independence, strong local administrative color and serious market segmentation. General intermediaries are subordinate to administrative organs, institutions and competent departments of enterprises, so it is difficult to guarantee the independence of personnel, funds and management, which will inevitably affect the fairness in the practice process. In addition, due to the lack of necessary industry self-discipline management and laws and regulations, all kinds of intermediaries have reduced their professional responsibilities, which is a serious violation of the law and weakens their intermediary status in society. At the same time, in the capital market, the legal status and standards of venture capital business are obviously insufficient, and relevant laws have not yet been formulated; Intermediaries have not yet formed a unified national practice standard system, and local intermediaries conduct business according to their own standards, resulting in different laws and regulations, leading to the lack of credit awareness of intermediaries.
5 Countermeasures and suggestions
(1) Local governments at all levels should choose suitable industries from the strategic height of industrial organization and guide entrepreneurial enterprises to take the road of cluster development on the basis of fairness and mutual benefit. The government should respect the endogenous law of clusters, attach importance to the cultivation of leading venture enterprises in a certain region, and give play to their "herd effect". Through the decomposition of its industrial links, a number of related small enterprises with close division of labor and cooperation will be derived, and then an interdependent and closely linked industrial technology chain will be formed, thus promoting the growth of the whole entrepreneurial enterprise cluster and the formation of the network system.
(2) Talent is undoubtedly the first major factor for the success of venture capital industrial clusters. Therefore, it is necessary to discover and cultivate potential talents through practice; It is necessary to send domestic personnel with certain experience in venture capital management to foreign developed countries for training in a planned way; Need to hire China experts who are engaged in venture capital abroad to work in China; Establish an incentive and restraint mechanism for venture capitalists as soon as possible.
(3) Dredge the channels of transforming private capital into venture capital, and realize the transformation from single government investment to diversified investment development. Therefore, under the current legal system, China should enact the Venture Capital Law as soon as possible to provide legal basis for the establishment, operation and income distribution of venture capital institutions.
(4) Improve the service system of venture capital. Cultivate neutral venture capital intermediary trade associations as soon as possible, carry out division of labor and cooperation among institutions, and give full play to the overall function of their service system. Strengthen the self-discipline construction of intermediary institutions. Improve the external legal environment of intermediaries, and introduce and improve the Securities Issuance and Trading Law, Investment Consulting Law and other laws and regulations as soon as possible. Strengthen the training of employees in intermediary institutions and improve their overall quality. Accelerate the construction of various information service industries and form a unified national venture capital intermediary operation system that is in line with international standards.
refer to
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4 Wang Jianyou. Characteristics, Causes and Types of Industrial Clusters [J]. Contemporary Finance and Economics, 2003( 1)
5 Cheng Siwei. On venture capital [M]. Beijing Democracy and Construction Press, 2003.