Employment is an important issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood. China has nearly one fifth of the world's population. Compared with other countries, the factors affecting employment in China seem to be more complicated. There are many factors that affect employment. The following is an analysis of the main factors that affect your employment, which I collected for your reference only. Welcome to reading.
The factors affecting China's employment situation are complicated, including changes in domestic economic growth rate and industrial structure, changes in population age structure and birth policy, and changes in the international economic environment. These factors have both positive and negative aspects, so it is necessary to predict the future changes of employment trends in China on the basis of careful analysis of these factors.
(1) The international political and economic situation will become more complicated and changeable.
Changes in the international political and economic environment will be transmitted to China through various channels, thus affecting the domestic economy and employment. Economically, the gradual recovery of the American economy and the gradual settlement of the European debt crisis will enhance the momentum of world economic development, help China expand its foreign trade and exports, and thus bring about employment growth; The weak growth of BRICS countries and Indian, Brazilian, Russian and South African emerging economies will weaken the demand for China's export products, thus directly or indirectly affecting China's economic growth and employment. Geopolitically, the Ukrainian crisis has brought great challenges to Russia and even the global economic growth; Territorial disputes and political differences with Japan, the Philippines and other countries will affect China's bilateral economic and trade relations to a certain extent, thus affecting the employment situation of related export enterprises in China.
(2) The downward pressure on China's economy has further increased.
The most closely related factor to employment growth is the economic growth rate. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained a high-speed growth level for more than 30 years. The average growth rate of economic growth from 1978 to 20 13 reached 9.8%. However, China's macro-economy is facing the superposition of three phases, and its potential growth rate will drop significantly. The economic growth rate in 20 12 and 20 13 years is around 7.7%, and it is predicted that the economic growth rate in China will fall back to around 7.3% in 20 14 years. The slowdown of China's economic growth is a transition to the new normal, and it will gradually return from high speed to medium-high speed growth platform, which will inevitably bring some pressure to employment growth.
(3) The trend of population aging will be more obvious.
For a long time since 1980s, China has been implementing the one-child policy, which is a compulsory measure to cope with the high fertility rate and population growth rate. This measure has indeed played an effective role in controlling population growth and improving population quality for a period of time. However, since the beginning of the new century, China has entered a rapidly aging society. In 2002, the population aged 65 and above accounted for 7.3% of the total population, and this figure has risen to 9.7% in 20 13. At the same time, the proportion of working-age population in China began to decline gradually from 20 1 1. In order to adapt to the grim situation of population aging in the future, the national population policy began to adjust, from the strict one-child policy to relaxing the second child restriction for "double-independent" families to allowing "single" families to have a second child. This adjustment of population and birth policy will reduce the labor participation rate of women of childbearing age in the near future, but it is beneficial to the long-term labor supply.
(4) The economic structure and industrial structure are facing profound transformation.
In the future, China will face the problem of accelerating the transformation and upgrading of economic structure and industrial structure. Although the proportion of China's service industry in the three industries has been greatly improved, there is still a big gap compared with developed countries. On the one hand, the development of service industry can create more employment opportunities than agriculture and manufacturing; On the other hand, the improvement of labor productivity in service industry is slower than that in manufacturing industry, which leads to the decline of economic growth rate, which will further restrict the overall employment growth. In the process of industrial transformation, it is inevitable to eliminate backward production capacity, and some industrial workers will face the problem of becoming new unemployed groups. Because the workers in these industries have low academic qualifications and simple skills, it is difficult to adapt to the technical needs of emerging industries after industrial transformation, so it is difficult to find employment in emerging industries. Therefore, the unemployment problem brought by the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure will be a new economic topic.
Prediction of employment trend in China
(1) The number of new jobs in cities and towns remained stable.
At present, the number of new urban employees in China is at a high level every year. It is expected that with the further slowdown of economic growth in the future, the scale of new urban employees will be very difficult to increase. And in the future, with the gradual reduction of the proportion of working-age population in China, the number of new jobs that need to be solved every year will also gradually decrease. Therefore, in the future, we need to stabilize the number of new jobs in cities and towns at a certain level. It is preliminarily estimated that China's economy will grow by about 7% in 20 15, and the number of new jobs in cities and towns will be about130,000, which is basically the same as that in 20 14.
(2) The supply and demand situation in the labor market remains loose.
Since 20 10, the overall recruitment rate in China's job market has been greater than 1, and the recruitment rates in the first three quarters were 2011,1.1and 6544/respectively. This shows that the current situation of China's labor market is that the overall supply exceeds demand, and this trend is expected to continue in 20 15 years. There are two main reasons for this. First, the increasing economic aggregate of China will create more jobs and opportunities; Second, the reduction of the proportion of working-age population has further improved the relationship between supply and demand of labor.
(3) The proportion of working-age population will continue to decline.
Since the implementation of the "single" two-child policy at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee on October 2010, by May 3 1 4, the number of "single" couples applying for another birth in China had reached 27 160, and 2,466 couples had been approved. However, there are about 1 1 10,000 couples who meet the "single" two-child policy in China, and less than 2.5% of all eligible couples apply for the above. It can be seen that the adjustment of population and birth policy can not effectively change the downward trend of working-age population in China in the short term, and the long-term effect is not optimistic. It is predicted that this proportion will continue to decline slowly in 20 15 years, and the labor supply will still decrease.
(4) The employment problem of key groups is still outstanding.
Under the condition that the overall labor market is relatively loose, the employment situation of key groups is still grim. The first is the group of college graduates. It is estimated that the number of college graduates will continue to increase in 20 15 years, which may reach about 7.5 million. Secondly, the number of laid-off workers in the process of industrial transformation will further increase. With the elimination of backward production capacity and the acceleration of the development of emerging industries in China, the re-employment problem of these laid-off workers will become more prominent. Third, the number of migrant workers is still huge. By the end of September, 20 1756 10000, the number of migrant workers in rural areas was 1756 1000, an increase of 1690, an increase of 1.0%, which is expected to be 20%.
(5) Improving the quality of employment.
In the future, the employment quality of China's labor force will gradually improve. On the one hand, due to the continuous improvement of the overall education level of China's labor force, most of the workers in the low-end job market are migrant workers, ordinary workers or simple manual workers, with low education and lack of special skills. In the future, as they gradually withdraw from the labor market and newcomers with higher education level enter the market, the overall employment quality is bound to improve. On the other hand, the in-depth implementation of labor law, contract law and other related laws, the government's emphasis on people's livelihood and the enhancement of employment security will all promote the employment quality of the labor force.
Countermeasures and suggestions
(1) Continue to deepen the reform in the field of employment and support employment and entrepreneurship in all directions.
First, adhere to the market-oriented employment mechanism, respect the dominant position of workers and enterprises in the market supply and demand, eliminate the institutional obstacles that affect equal employment, such as urban and rural areas, industries, identities and gender, form a market system that is conducive to the free flow and equal exchange of labor factors, and improve the efficiency and fairness of human resource allocation. The second is to further promote decentralization, increase financial support, improve the policy system to support entrepreneurship, lead entrepreneurship with innovation, and promote employment with entrepreneurship. The third is to strengthen and improve public employment services, improve the public employment and talent service system covering urban and rural areas, strive to improve the level of service specialization and informatization, promote the construction of a national public employment information platform, accelerate the nationwide networking of employment information, and promote the effective docking of labor supply and demand.
(2) Improve the system of vocational education and vocational training, and comprehensively improve the quality of the workforce.
It is necessary to speed up the construction of a lifelong vocational training system for workers, make full use of the policies of vocational training subsidies and subsidies for high-skilled talents, and encourage enterprises, vocational colleges and training institutions to extensively carry out various types of vocational training, innovate training methods, and improve training quality. It is necessary to focus on the implementation of the vocational skills upgrading plan for migrant workers so that the new generation of migrant workers can enjoy free training opportunities. We should respect labor and skills, improve the guidance mechanism, training mechanism, evaluation mechanism and incentive mechanism conducive to the growth of skilled personnel, and create a good atmosphere for the whole society to care for and support the growth of skilled personnel.
(3) Guide industrial optimization and upgrading, and create employment opportunities with rich levels and diverse needs.
While maintaining stable and sustained economic growth, we should rationally adjust the industrial layout and economic structure. We should not only promote transformation and upgrading, but also create more managerial, knowledge-based and technical jobs suitable for high-quality workers. We should also take advantage of the regional differences in China's vast territory, resource endowment and development gap, play the role of "strict array model", promote the gradient transfer between industrial regions, promote the upgrading of industrial structure in developed regions, encourage the development of service industries and create more adequate employment opportunities.
(four) timely and decisive adjustment of birth policy, scientific and dynamic assessment of population changes.
By establishing a population monitoring and early warning mechanism, strengthening the investigation and study of population changes, improving the information reporting system of the birth population, speeding up the construction of the national population basic information database, and realizing information sharing in marriage, childbirth and household registration management. On this basis, according to the dynamic changes of population after policy adjustment, the changes of population fertility rate and total population are evaluated in time to judge the influence of current population policy on fertility rate, so as to further adjust the fertility policy in time and delay many problems brought about by aging.
(5) Actively help groups with employment difficulties and fully tap the potential of existing labor resources.
First of all, it is necessary to dynamically understand the number of employees and employment needs involved in resolving overcapacity, refine and improve the employee resettlement plan, and closely track the dynamic changes. Secondly, we should take the initiative to send employment support policies to enterprises, provide personalized vocational guidance, free vocational introduction and targeted vocational training for employees who have changed jobs, and give full play to the effectiveness of policies to promote employment. Thirdly, actively and steadily handle labor relations, transfer and continue social insurance, implement various social security benefits, and relieve employees' worries. 、
China's economic transformation is making important progress, so we should have an optimistic and positive judgment on the situation.
At present, China is in the transition period of economic growth, and it is normal for the economic growth rate to fall back moderately. China's economic growth potential is still considerable in the future, and China's theory of "collapse" or "recession" is groundless.
Internationally, if China can maintain a growth rate of 6%~7% in the next few years, it can still be called "medium-high-speed growth". But where its "bottom" is has not been proved. Changing from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth requires three "boots" (infrastructure investment, export and real estate investment). After the third "boot" landed, the "bottom" or equilibrium point of medium and high-speed growth was basically proved. It is hoped that China's economy can complete the transformation of growth stage within one or two years, find out the "bottom" of medium and high-speed growth, and enter a new stable growth track or state, that is, the "new normal of economic growth".
China Economic Related Research Report 20 15-2020 China Economy Hotel Industry Market Depth Survey and Investment Prospect Analysis Report
2014165438+1October 20 15-2020 China economic radar level gauge industry market depth survey and investment forecast report 20 15-2020 China economic structural adhesive industry market depth survey and investment forecast report 20/kloc-0. On the surface, the transition from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth is a slowdown in growth rate, followed by major adjustment of economic structure and profound changes in institutional policy environment. In this process of transformation, China should meet three challenges.
First, effectively control and resolve the financial risks in the process of restructuring. At present, the outstanding problems in China are liquidity risk, real estate bubble, local debt risk and overcapacity. These four types of risks are intertwined and transmitted through shadow banking, land, local financing platforms and state-owned enterprises, forming a cycle of risk transmission. Whether China responds to the crisis passively or reforms actively determines whether it can avoid a major financial crisis.
Second, effectively improve the efficiency of the non-trade sector. Compared with developed economies, the gap of total factor productivity in late-developing economies is more manifested in non-trade sectors dominated by services. This problem is more prominent in China, especially the low efficiency of basic industries restricts the improvement of overall efficiency. At present, the proportion of service industry's output value is rising, partly because of price increase, not efficiency improvement. In the future, China should focus on developing producer services with high productivity.
Third, expand new growth points and promote innovation. New growth areas may be born because of the potential demand being tapped, such as education, medical care, culture, sports and other new growth points; It may also be triggered by the emergence of new technologies, such as online shopping and photovoltaics; It may also be driven by coping with existing problems and seeking new growth models, such as green industries such as energy conservation and emission reduction, clean energy and water conservation. China should form a number of innovative leading enterprises and a large number of innovative small and medium-sized enterprises through competition. Therefore, we should speed up the construction of factor market, promote the construction and opening up of innovation infrastructure, encourage the flow and moderate agglomeration of innovation factors according to market demand, and form a number of cities or regions with strong innovation ability. We should encourage an environment and mechanism for free exploration, gather world-class talents and study major issues. Strengthen the integration of basic research, applied research and industrial application, and allocate government R&D resources more through market competition and demand orientation.
As the highlight of comprehensively deepening reform, the reform of state-owned enterprises was included in the key content of accelerating reform and opening up at the Central Economic Work Conference held recently. This also means that 20 15 will enter the implementation stage of state-owned enterprise reform, especially the two-year-old state-owned enterprise reform plan will be promulgated on 20 15, and the state-owned enterprise reform will enter the "implementation year".
In 20 15, the key tasks of state-owned enterprise reform were gradually clarified: adjusting the structure of "addition, subtraction, multiplication and division", establishing "three lists" and "four batches", and accelerating the reform focusing on classification, mixed ownership and "four pilots"
Li Jin, vice president of China Enterprise Reform and Development Research Association, said that from the reform task led by SAAC, SAAC has reviewed three reform measures, including the definition and classification of central enterprises' functions, the adjustment of layout structure and the guiding opinions for deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises. The expression of "three lists" and "four batches" shows that the classification idea has been clear and also conveys the signal of large-scale rectification.
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20 15 65438+ 10 October 20 15-2020 new dynamic strategic research and competitive consulting analysis of cefetamet hydrochloride market 20 15-2020 China denim leisure jacket industry market competition pattern and investment risk analysis report123 "20
Li Jin pointed out that there are four paths for large-scale reorganization of state-owned enterprises: one is to reorganize large companies and large enterprise groups with independent intellectual property rights, well-known brands and international competitiveness, and promote the concentration of various resource elements to advantageous enterprises; Second, comprehensively promote "mixed ownership", formulate negative lists, sell state-owned assets to the market publicly, and gradually withdraw or reorganize other fields except key areas of national security or industries providing public goods and services; The third is to adjust the internal structure of enterprise groups, gradually divest non-core businesses and liberalize some downstream areas; Fourth, joint ventures and cross-border mergers and acquisitions realize the global allocation of resources.
Giving more rights to state-owned enterprises has become the main theme of state-owned enterprise reform around 20 15. At the recent meeting of leaders of central enterprises and local SASACs, sasac director Zhang Yi said that SASACs will take the lead in self-reform, delegate all the powers that should be exercised to enterprises, and unload all the burdens that should not be borne by enterprises, so as to effectively enhance the vitality and competitiveness of enterprises as independent market players. The next step in the reform of state-owned enterprises should focus on standardizing the evaluation of state-owned assets, improving the pricing mechanism of state-owned assets, and strictly operating procedures to ensure openness and transparency and effectively prevent the loss of state-owned assets.
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