2 1 century business herald reporter Sharla Cheung reports from Beijing?
According to Xinhua News Agency, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting on July 28th to analyze and study the current economic situation and plan economic work in the second half of the year.
Since July, due to the tight cash flow situation of some housing enterprises, some real estate projects under construction have stopped working. This not only affects the "guaranteed delivery", but also makes some owners' mentality fluctuate. Recently, a few owners stopped lending, which is considered to be the result of this move.
How to stabilize the expectation of the real estate market has become the key to market stability.
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to stabilize the real estate market and adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation. Due to the city's policy, make full use of the policy toolbox, support the demand for rigid and improved housing, compact the responsibility of local governments, ensure the delivery of buildings, and stabilize people's livelihood.
This statement is of great significance to the real estate market that has received much attention recently.
Affected by many factors, the real estate market has not been hot this year. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of this year, the national real estate development investment decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, falling for three consecutive months; The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 22.2% and the sales of commercial housing decreased by 28.9%. The funds in place of real estate development enterprises decreased by 25.3% year-on-year.
In achieving the goal of "stabilizing people's livelihood", "ensuring the delivery of buildings" is considered as an important prerequisite. Analysts believe that in the second half of this year, the fundamentals of real estate regulation and control policies are still to adhere to the "safety" bottom line to ensure that no systemic risks occur. On this basis, all measures will be mainly aimed at meeting people's livelihood needs. Among them, further supporting reasonable demand and strengthening the supervision of pre-sale funds will be an important policy direction.
Practical significance of "stabilizing the property market"
In the communique of the meeting, "stabilizing the real estate market" was put in the first place, which has its realistic basis.
Affected by many factors, the real estate market has declined since the second half of last year, and some housing enterprises have also encountered liquidity difficulties. In 2022, local governments and regulatory authorities at all levels introduced a series of policies to stabilize the property market. However, due to the lag effect of policy transmission and repeated epidemics, the recovery speed of the market is still slow.
By June of this year, the policy effect appeared and the market finally improved. In June, real estate sales, financing, construction and other indicators improved. By the middle and early July, the market recovery situation was continued. However, at this time, the behavior of stopping lending has brought a certain psychological impact to both the supply and demand sides, and the prospect of market recovery is uncertain again.
In this case, stabilizing the market has become a top priority.
When planning the economic work in the second half of the year, the meeting placed the positioning of the real estate market under the project of "all-round security bottom line", which also reflected the importance and urgency of stabilizing the property market.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, believes that the current contradiction in the real estate market lies in the emergence of unstable factors, including weak market transactions, suspension of work and suspension of loans, and the debt risk of housing enterprises is still high. Therefore, the expression of "stabilizing the real estate market" has a very strong guiding significance.
Liu Ye, a RealData market analyst, pointed out that the stable development and virtuous circle of real estate are related to economic development and social stability, and stabilizing the property market must be the top priority.
From the perspective of people's livelihood, the significance of stabilizing the property market cannot be ignored. In recent years, the regulatory authorities' role orientation and policy orientation of real estate are returning to the people's livelihood and residential attributes. The appearance of suspension of work and loan restriction shows that industry risks are spreading from real estate enterprises to the field of people's livelihood security and need to be dealt with in time.
The formulation of "ensuring the delivery of buildings and stabilizing people's livelihood" is considered to be an expression of this phenomenon, and this is the first time that "ensuring the delivery of buildings" has been written into the announcement of the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference. Li, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Urban Planning Institute, said that ensuring the delivery of buildings is the premise of stabilizing people's livelihood, which proves that stabilizing people's livelihood occupies the first place in real estate management.
On July 28, the China Banking Regulatory Commission also made a statement, "Support local governments to do a good job of' guaranteeing the delivery of houses' and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market."
How to "guarantee the delivery of the building" in terms of policy?
Under the goal of stabilizing the real estate market, the responsibility of local governments has been compacted again.
Considering the different market forms of different cities and regions, this is an important principle for China to regulate the property market in recent years. However, compared with the position of the regulatory authorities, under the same principle, there are still differences in the control of policy implementation and scale.
On April 29 this year, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting proposed, "Support local governments to improve real estate policies according to local conditions and support rigid and improved housing demand." On July 28th, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting pointed out that "due to the city's policy, we should make full use of the policy toolbox, support the demand for rigid and improved housing, compact the responsibility of local governments, ensure the delivery of houses and stabilize people's livelihood."
Yan Yuejin believes that the statement of "making full use of the policy toolbox" means that policies should be maximized in the second half of the year. This also leaves room for local governments to further optimize the property market policy.
Since the beginning of this year, more than 100 cities have introduced various policies to stabilize the property market, which is rare in recent years in terms of policy strength and frequency. However, Liu believes that the existing policy "toolbox" still has room for optimization.
"For the demand-side support policy, in addition to reducing the threshold and cost of buying houses through restrictions on purchases, loans and sales, there is room for increasing deed tax subsidies, housing subsidies, and issuing consumer vouchers to promote housing consumption; In the later stage, we will focus on the policy support of the supply side, such as the optimization of pre-sale fund supervision and the bail-out policy of housing enterprises. " Liu said:
Li also believes that the supply-side policy is very important. "The market continues to fall, not because the demand-side policy bail-out is ineffective, but because the influence of the supply side persists."
Among them, the "walk-in building" is considered to be an important part of the supply side, and it is also the embodiment of the responsibility of local governments.
Li said that since the second half of last year, the progress of real estate risk disposal has not reached expectations, resulting in difficulties in delivery and impacting the rights and interests of owners. The main reason is that the main responsibility of local governments in dealing with this problem has not been consolidated. Therefore, in terms of "ensuring the delivery of buildings", the leading role of local governments is expected to increase in the future and participate more in the disposal of specific projects.
In addition, compared with the statement of "optimizing the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing" at the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting on April 29th, this meeting directly mentioned "the delivery of affordable housing", showing a more obvious result orientation. Analysts believe that in addition to strengthening the supervision of pre-sale funds, relevant supporting measures (such as credit support, bail-out funds, etc. ) is also expected to land.