House prices will not rise in the short term, but will rise in the long term.
The government keeps raising residents' income, saying that it will increase people's income by 15% every year in the next five years (if I remember correctly). In this year's government work report of NPC and CPPCC, it is proposed to "double the income of urban and rural residents".
House prices are directly proportional to the purchasing power of residents. With the rising income of residents, it is inevitable that house prices will rise. At present, the regulation of ZF is concentrated in dozens of cities in the first and second tier. In other places, 3000 to 5000 square meters or even 6000 to 7 100 square meters is actually not high. According to the information revealed by the National Conference of Directors of Migrant Workers' Work and Family Services (see 201KLOC-0/Sichuan News Network on February 29th), the total number of migrant workers in China is 252.78 million, and the average monthly income of migrant workers exceeds 2,000 yuan, reaching 2,049 yuan. According to this calculation, the annual income of a couple of migrant workers is 49 1.76 yuan, and according to the internationally accepted calculation method of "prime minister's house price" recently discussed by netizens, the ratio of house price to income is reasonable, so the total income of a couple of migrant workers in six years is 295,056 yuan, which is enough to buy a small apartment with two rooms and 75 square meters at a unit price of 4,000 yuan (of course, it is impossible for migrant workers to buy a house without eating or drinking for six years).
Judging from economics and economic laws, the future trend of the property market is definitely related to purchasing power. Although the current property price seems to be out of touch with purchasing power, the economic law is the same, that is, investment depends on the prospects. If the purchasing power is expected to increase rapidly in the future, it may not take two or three years to catch up with the property price and adapt to it. Just like the stock market, high-growth companies deserve high P/E ratio and high share price. Back to your question, it depends on whether you believe that the purchasing power (residents' income) will increase rapidly in the future. If you think the income of residents will increase rapidly in the future, if most people hold this view, isn't it clear what the property price will look like?
When people's income doubles in the next five years, at that time, house prices will definitely be higher than the current prices.
Although the direct purpose of continuous interest rate cuts is by no means to encourage real estate, after abundant liquidity, some funds will definitely flow into real estate under the current situation that the property market is picking up. This is the overall positive, and the land market will also be affected by the general trend. The interest rate cut will stimulate the real estate market to continue the overall "heavy volume". The recovery of transaction volume will be gradually transmitted to the whole real estate investment, and the growth rate of data such as construction area will stop declining. Large-scale development enterprises will take the initiative to speed up the pace of construction, form a new market supply, and then actively take land in the land market. Asymmetric interest rate cuts imply just-needed support, so it can be expected that similar land markets will get further support.
At present, at the policy level, the loosening of funds is becoming more and more obvious, which will help to change the situation of developers' tight funds and consumer housing consumption expectations. It should be said that the theory of collapse and the theory of halving in the past are self-defeating, and the decline in house prices is definitely limited, but there is no room for a big increase.
Combined with the developing economic situation in China, residents' income is still on the rise. At present, if you have the ability, it is better to buy a house early than late.
Tencent's online survey of the central bank's second interest rate cut this year shows that:
Do you think cutting interest rates will stimulate the property market? (required)
Meeting 13538(65.30%)
No, 5549 (26.77%)
Unclear 1, 644 (7.93%)