Recently, Beijing, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Dongguan and other places have successively introduced property market regulation policies, aiming at cooling the property market. Among them, the policies of Beijing and Chengdu are aimed at divorce and gift to customers respectively. Although the policy is small and refined, the Hangzhou property market has further upgraded the purchase restriction by extending the social security period.
At the moment of frequent policies, real estate regulation is showing accuracy and comprehensiveness. However, even so, the industry believes that the property market will still face the pressure of rising house prices, and policy regulation is still in a "tight" state.
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House prices are rising too fast, and the pressure on the city is suddenly great?
In terms of regulation, Beijing's property market policy has a strong signal significance, which can be described as a weather vane for other cities in the country to regulate the property market.
On August 5, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the Announcement on Further Improving the Policy of Restricting Purchase of Commercial Housing, clarifying that if the husband and wife divorce and the original family owned two or more houses before the divorce, neither party may buy a house in this city within three years from the date of divorce. The new regulations will be implemented on the 5th.
Obviously, this is a small policy. In the industry's view, Beijing's property market regulation is mainly "patching", but its signal significance is far greater than the actual effect. The relevant person in charge of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that the introduction of new regulations to curb "fake divorce" in buying houses is also the implementation of the spirit of the central meeting on accelerating the development of affordable rental housing and further improving the regulation of the real estate market, and the regulation and control efforts remain unwavering.
The industry believes that this is more like a statement. What is important is that Beijing will continue to make fine adjustments, especially the accountability mechanism will be further implemented. The main leaders of each district should personally ask questions, conduct in-depth research, strengthen dispatching, and ensure that land prices and house prices are stable in a reasonable range.
This is consistent with the previous rhetoric of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. On July 22, Zhang, director of the real estate market supervision department of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that it is necessary to further implement the main responsibility of the city government with relevant departments, strengthen the supervision and guidance responsibility of the provincial government, and the regulation is weak. Cities with excessive price increases must be resolutely accountable.
Last week, Ni Hong, Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, interviewed the responsible comrades of Yinchuan, Xuzhou, Jinhua, Quanzhou, Huizhou and other places. In view of the new situation and new problems in the real estate market in the first half of the year, he proposed to strengthen regulation and supervision to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
The reason is that the property market is too hot. Statistics show that in 20021June, the sales price index of new commercial housing in Yinchuan, Xuzhou, Jinhua, Quanzhou and Huizhou all increased by more than 4% from the previous month and by more than 6% from the same period last year. In terms of second-hand housing, the price index of second-hand housing also increased by more than 4% month-on-month, especially in Jinhua, where the price index of second-hand housing increased by 10% month-on-month.
In this regard, Li, the chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, believes that accountability is an important part of long-term mechanism management. Regulation bid farewell to the top-down regulation in the past and turned to the regulation under the framework of "one city, one policy", that is, the autonomy of regulation lies with local governments, and the responsibility also lies with local governments, which are responsible for the effect of regulation.
"This also indicates that the real estate control policy will improve the mechanism of one city and one policy, and there is no possibility of loosening or periodic adjustment." Li said that after the recent implementation of interest rate cuts, the market expects that the regulatory policies may be loosened periodically. However, in the case of rising house prices and land prices, new regulatory policies may be introduced at any time.
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Build a long-term mechanism for the property market?
Summary of Major Real Estate Policies in July and August
Source: According to the inventory of Central Finger Hospital.
Combined with the property market regulation since this year, we can find that the property market regulation of real estate has the characteristics of accuracy and comprehensiveness.
In terms of accuracy, according to Kerui's observation, Huzhou, Xi 'an, Hefu, Jiaxing, Shaoxing and other cities have successively upgraded their regulation, mainly involving upgrading restrictions on purchases, upgrading restrictions on loans, upgrading restrictions on sales, increasing taxes and fees on real estate transactions, setting up reference prices for second-hand houses, and shaking the number of new houses.
Especially the reference price of second-hand houses, up to now, starting from Shenzhen, Chengdu, Dongguan, Xi, Shaoxing, Wuxi and other cities have issued relevant policy notices. Zhongyuan believes that the coverage of the second-hand housing market reference price release mechanism is constantly expanding, and the "toolbox" of price control is constantly improving. At the same time, the release of the second-hand housing market reference price will form a reference for housing loans, listing prices and other aspects, effectively stabilize market expectations, and achieve the goal of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations".
In addition, policies for school districts are constantly being introduced. Beijing, Taiyuan, Wenzhou and other cities have successively introduced policies for school districts. For example, on July 4th, Beijing Xicheng District Housing Authority organized a working meeting of Jia Lian, I Love My Family (000560, Share Bar), 2 1 Century Real Estate, Wheat Field, Zhongyuan and other major real estate agents to actively cooperate with the educational reform policy.
In terms of comprehensiveness, it is mainly reflected in the breadth of regulatory scope. On the one hand, from the encirclement of operating loans to the increase of mortgage interest rates, credit in the real estate industry has been tightened in an all-round way. According to the data released by China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, as of the end of April, real estate loans increased by 65,438+00.5% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate in eight years.
At the same time, the balance of real estate trust and the scale of wealth management products invested in real estate continued to decline. Compared with the same period of last year, the balance of real estate trust decreased by about 65,438+03.6%, showing a continuous downward trend since June 2065,438+09, and the scale of wealth management products invested in real estate non-standard assets decreased by 36% year-on-year.
Mortgage interest rates have also increased significantly. According to the data of Rong 360, in May of 20021year, the average mortgage interest rate of the first suite in China was 5.33%, up 1 1BP compared with the end of 2020, and the average mortgage interest rate of the second suite was 5.6 1%, up 8BP compared with the end of 2020.
On the other hand, the supply-side reform is implemented on the land side. Li believes that except for a few cities, the overall premium rate of the first round of centralized land supply is very low. Excluding competitive construction, the actual transaction premium rate is only 16%- 17%. Therefore, there is little pressure on the rebound of house prices in the future, and there is little pressure on land prices to force the price limit to loosen.
At present, the policies adopted by the real estate industry around "stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations" are more abundant and flexible in depth and breadth. Not only that, the future policy is expected to be further extended. Ke Rui believes that the long-term mechanism reform of real estate will enter the "deep water area", and the reform of rental housing supply and real estate tax system will be accelerated in the future, and the speed and intensity will be higher than market expectations.
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The cooling of the property market in the second half of the year is "nailed"?
Under the pressure of policy, the real estate market shows a downward trend. Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that in June, the prosperity index of real estate development was 10 1.05, which declined for four consecutive months.
But overall, the heat in the first half of the year is still very high. Statistics show that from June to June, the sales area of commercial housing was 886.35 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%. Among them, the residential sales area increased by 29.4%; The sales volume of commercial housing was 929,365,438+billion yuan, an increase of 38.9%; Among them, residential sales increased by 4 1.9%.
Moreover, in the second half of the year, the property market is facing structural upward pressure on housing prices. Taking Beijing as an example, the average floor price of the first batch of houses is about 35,000 yuan/flat, and the actual average residential sales price may be 63,000 yuan or even higher. The industry believes that if these plots can be sold to the highest price in the future, the price increase in the mainstream market in Beijing may exceed 30%.
Zhongyiyuan believes that in the short term, affected by regulatory policies, the price increase in hot cities will narrow. However, judging from the relationship between land price, second-hand housing price and new housing price, the price of new housing rose structurally throughout the year.
On the one hand, the current second-hand housing prices in 100 cities show strong resilience as a whole, and the rise of second-hand housing prices can also reflect that the current home buyers' home ownership sentiment is still at a high level, which supports the new housing prices;
On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, the floor price of residential land transactions has risen sharply, and the continuous rise in land prices has also driven housing prices. On the whole, the price of new houses may continue to rise slightly in the second half of the year.
Although the policy effect has begun to appear, such as the cooling of cities such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou, some third-and fourth-tier cities are also following suit. It is expected that the policy effect will be further manifested, but the regulation of the property market is still facing high pressure.
For example, Nantong was interviewed by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development on April 8, and 10 regulation measures were urgently introduced on April 20. Ke Rui believes that Nantong's regulation is limited to the tightening of the supply side, and does not involve the adjustment of the demand side such as purchase restriction, loan restriction and sales restriction. It is really difficult to fundamentally reverse market expectations.
In other words, although the policy has been so intensive and precise, some property markets will still face the pressure of rising house prices and rising property market fever.