A new year has begun! 65438+10.4 is the first trading day of introducing inquiry trading in the inter-bank spot foreign exchange market. In the spot foreign exchange market, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 8.0676, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar once again hit a new high since the appreciation of RMB in July last year. Standing at the beginning of the new year, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has been refreshed again. Let's look forward to the cotton market in the new year.
Under the current situation, there are many unknown factors in the cotton market in 2006. The change of each factor is affecting the contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and sometimes even the change of a certain factor may change the relationship between supply and demand. How will the trend curve of cotton market be interpreted in 2006? From a macro point of view, the national macroeconomic environment provided a good and relaxed environment for the development of cotton market in 2006. When interviewed by reporters, most people in the industry are optimistic about the cotton market this year, and agree that the market will run smoothly within a certain range, with the bottom line of 1.3 million yuan/ton. Some insiders believe that the highest cotton price in 2006 may reach 1.6 million yuan/ton.
But how can the cotton market be stable this year?
Before May Day: Cotton prices will show an upward trend.
At present, the cotton market is running smoothly, and the import quota of 894,000 tons of cotton issued by the state at the end of 65,438+February exceeds the industry expectation. Cotton enterprises are happy, and the gas that is reluctant to sell and bullish is restored again; In the unsatisfied disappointment, textile enterprises adjusted their inventory replenishment plans years ago, and some textile enterprises turned to the domestic market; But also strengthened the confidence of cotton merchants in some cotton-producing areas who are bullish about the market outlook. After New Year's Day, they raised the purchase price of seed cotton and seized limited market resources. Therefore, cotton prices rose slightly after New Year's Day.
654381October 9, the national cotton price index was 1422 1 yuan/ton, which was 53 yuan/ton higher than that on February 30, 2005, and significantly higher than that on the first three days after New Year's Day. According to the analysis, on the eve of May 1 this year, the cotton market will go out of a wave of rising prices. The main influencing factors are: textile demand, cotton planting area and cotton price in Xinjiang.
Demand is the most fundamental factor affecting the trend of cotton market, and the relationship between supply and demand has always been the main contradiction restricting the market trend. "1-April is the peak season of textile demand in China, and the textile situation will be better than that in the fourth quarter of 2005." Wei Gangmin, chairman of Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd. believes. He analyzed that on the one hand, as we all know, from the characteristics of the textile industry,1-April is the peak season of the textile market over the years, and the increase in demand can drive up cotton prices. On the other hand, in 2005, China's textile industry entered the post-quota era, and textile exports frequently encountered special protection and restrictions from the European Union and the United States, and the spinning output increased by 23.02% year-on-year. This year, China's textile demand will continue to grow steadily, and the number of textiles exported to the EU and the United States in the first half of the year has been determined. In the case of clear textile export situation, textile demand will increase. This will form a strong support for the rise in cotton prices.
Fan, vice minister of agriculture, said at the planting professional meeting of the National Agricultural Work Conference held recently that the Ministry of Agriculture initially considered that during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, China's cotton area should be stabilized at 80-85 million mu, with a total output of about 6.5 million tons, meeting about 70% of the cotton demand of the textile industry. In 2006, we will strive to restore the cotton planting area to more than 80 million mu, and strive to increase the output per unit area so as to restore the total output to more than 6 million tons.
This year's cotton planting area depends on the future trend of cotton prices. At present, the low profit margin of cotton price makes cotton enterprises complain. Some cotton enterprises are "dying" because of high cost. If cotton prices fall, some cotton enterprises will be hurt, which will inevitably affect the cotton planting area this year. At the end of last year, the country only issued an import quota of 894,000 tons of cotton, which showed the attitude of the country and did not want to excessively suppress the cotton price, thus affecting the cotton market trend in the later period and thus affecting the cotton planting area this year. This country sincerely hopes that cotton prices will be stable. It can be seen that the national policy has a certain positive effect on the future cotton price.
"Due to the tight transportation capacity, Xinjiang cotton will leave Xinjiang in March, which will increase the cotton price, which may run to 1.5 million yuan/ton." Xie Qiyu, general manager of Chineydy Cotton Co., Ltd., Hebei Yinhe Group, who also believes that cotton prices will rise before May Day, said. It was difficult for Xinjiang cotton to leave Xinjiang years ago. In March, Xinjiang cotton will go abroad one after another. At present, the sales price of Grade 2 Xinjiang cotton is about 1.43 million yuan/ton, and the cost of Xinjiang cotton after leaving Xinjiang is about1.50 million yuan/ton. So add 500 yuan/ton's delivery fee and storage fee for one month 100 yuan/ton. In addition, from the cost calculation of cotton in the mainland, the cotton price may be 15000 yuan/ton after March. Based on the estimation of the third-grade cotton purchased by mainland cotton enterprises in June 5438+ 10, 2005, the processing price of the third-grade cotton will reach more than 14200 yuan/ton, and the cost of cotton may rise to 14800 yuan/ton after March.
At the same time, Wei Gangmin pointed out that the quantity and speed of adding cotton import quotas in the later period, the change of RMB exchange rate, the export situation of textiles and the time when developed countries canceled cotton import quotas will also be important unknown factors restricting the trend of cotton prices.
The macro environment is improving.
The state advocates the stable development of enterprises, and the Central Economic Work Conference made a comprehensive plan for the economic development in 2006. The most important thing is to maintain the steady and rapid growth of the national economy and maintain the continuity and stability of policies. Specifically, we should continue to implement prudent fiscal and monetary policies. At the same time, the 2006 working conference held by the People's Bank of China on October 5th, 65438, determined the expected control target of monetary policy this year, increased the money supply and adopted a loose monetary policy.
On the 7th National Cotton Market Dealers Forum, Xia Wensheng, director of the second customer department of China Agricultural Development Bank, said that in 2006, China Agricultural Development Bank will increase its credit support for the technological transformation of cotton enterprises and extend it to the whole industrial chain, starting from the overall situation and starting from the awareness of policies, markets and services, but it needs to do a good job in risk management. It can be seen that this year the state advocates prudent and steady operation of enterprises, that is, stable development.
At the cotton situation analysis meeting of the national cotton trading market, Xu, president of China Textile Industry Association, said that the textile demand in China will continue to grow steadily this year, but the growth rate will slow down, and the yarn output will reach150,000 tons, which is140,000 tons higher than the expected yarn output in 2005, and the cotton consumption is about 1000 tons.
At the same time, this year's textile industry is listed as an overcapacity industry. Some insiders have analyzed that the overall formulation of industry adjustment is "push" and the key word for promotion is "push". Move, move. "Push" is the will of the government and a policy behavior. When it comes to the cotton chain, the macroeconomic impact on it is a relatively neutral process, because the boost of domestic demand is relatively slow, and the adjustment of the textile industry has improved in the elimination. The influence of this process on the total demand of cotton resources is less than the structural influence, that is to say, the adjustment of textile industry does not mean the adjustment of the whole cotton consumption.
Xie Qiyu is very optimistic about the cotton market this year. He said that the current import quota of 894,000 tons of cotton simply cannot form purchasing power in the market. At present, textile enterprises that have obtained cotton import quotas regard foreign cotton as a treasure because of its great price advantage, and have long calculated its use and will not act rashly on this right. He believes that after August, cotton prices will be higher than the same period in 2005. He analyzed that, according to the forecast of ICAC in the monthly report of June 5438+ 10, 2006, the average Cotlook A index in 2005/2006 was 65 cents per pound, which was 13 cents higher than the previous year. Then, there is still room for a sharp rise in international cotton prices in the afternoon. If American cotton runs above 60 cents, the cotton import quota will form purchasing power under the psychology of bulls, which will drive the cotton price in China to rise. At present, cotton prices will be at a low level.
The negative pressure is particularly large.
There are also many negative factors in front of many bullish factors, and the impact of negative factors and unknown factors on the market in the current market should not be underestimated. Xie Qiyu said that the cancellation of cotton export subsidies by developed countries some time ago this year will form resistance to cotton prices. It is widely rumored in the industry that developed countries will cancel cotton export subsidies on August 1 day this year. Before the United States cancels the cotton export subsidy, a large number of American cotton will flock to China port, and the international cotton price will fall due to export pressure.
First of all, the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission said on the 9th that it is estimated that the purchase price of new cotton in China in 2006 will be basically the same as that in 2005. It is reported that in 2005, the average purchase price of national standard cotton is estimated to be about 640 yuan per ton, and the sales price is about RMB 0.4 million per ton/kloc, which is at an all-time high. He also said that the focus of cotton market regulation is to keep cotton prices basically stable at a reasonable level, so as to stabilize cotton production, protect farmers' interests and promote the healthy development of the textile industry. This shows that the country will not support the current and future excessive rise in cotton prices.
Secondly, from the perspective of related products, according to industry insiders, cotton prices were at a higher price among related agricultural products last year. The price of polyester staple fiber is about10.05 million yuan/ton, which is 3,000 yuan/ton lower than that of cotton, and the cotton-fiber ratio is at a high level of 1.35: 1. Therefore, the current price comparison of cotton shows that compared with closely related products, the domestic cotton price is relatively high. It can be seen that there is a downside for cotton prices. Third, this year is a year to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. Under the current exchange rate system, the RMB exchange rate is no longer pegged to a single dollar, but several major currencies are selected to form a currency basket, and the change of any currency in the basket can affect the value of the RMB. Therefore, under this system, the RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, and will also fluctuate flexibly according to market rules. According to the article of Xinhuanet, in view of the future trend of RMB exchange rate, relatively stable economists at home and abroad agree that China's exchange rate reform will continue this year, and the RMB will continue to appreciate slightly according to market expectations, with an appreciation rate of about 3%.
Finally, from the perspective of the international market, according to the global agricultural product supply and demand forecast report of the US Department of Agriculture from June 5438 to February 2005, the global cotton production and consumption increased slightly in 2005/2006, and the ending inventory rose, and the overall supply and demand situation remained balanced. According to the forecast of the World Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), encouraged by the high price this year, the world cotton planting area will increase by about 3% in 2006/2007, reaching 35.7 million hectares, and the international supply and demand situation will not change much. Judging from the long-term trend, the global inventory is at a historical high. Overall, supply exceeds demand, and there is limited room for price increase in the international market.
In addition, China's textile exports will not be smooth sailing this year, and the textile trade war is far from over. We should always be alert to the possible "restrictive" measures taken by the international market on China's textile exports. Sun Huaibin, director of the press center of China Textile Industry Association, pointed out at the cotton situation analysis meeting of the national cotton trading market that in the next 2-3 years, the possibility of the United States and Europe implementing special protection for Chinese textiles will be weakened, but it is still possible to impose other restrictions on Chinese textiles. It will directly affect the demand of textile cotton and the trend of the contradiction between supply and demand.
Based on the analysis of various factors, the insiders believe that 13000 yuan/ton will be the bottom line of cotton price this year, and the highest cotton can run to 16000 yuan/ton. However, the national policy is not static, and the state will regulate and control cotton on the principle of keeping cotton prices basically stable at a reasonable level, stabilizing cotton production, protecting farmers' interests and promoting the healthy development of the textile industry. There are still many unknown factors in the future cotton market, such as the exact cotton planting area this year, sudden force majeure factors and so on. The above analysis only provides readers with market analysis basis. In the future, the trend of cotton market will appear in the competition of the above-mentioned long and short factors and the change of unknown factors, which needs our constant attention.
/news/onews.asp？ id= 12968