What is the economic development trend in 2009? What about the real estate trend? Will the US financial crisis have an impact on China's real estate prices?

In 2009, the economy developed well, the price was stable, the house price was going down, and the future of agriculture was bright. The financial crisis in the United States began with the bubble development of the real estate economy. What will the United States use as the locomotive of its economic progress after the powerful driving force of high technology represented by computers has weakened? At that time, Mr. Greenspan, director of the Federal Reserve System, turned his attention to real estate. In the past decade, under the guidance of real estate, the American economy has experienced a "miracle" of high growth and low inflation. Now, looking back at this process from the perspective of "Monday morning quarterback", we can easily find that this "miracle" is simply unhealthy and contains a lot of bubbles. But at that time, Greenspan was regarded as a "fairy" by many people, and even many Americans said: I don't care who is the president, I only care whether Greenspan is still the director. Greenspan's policy is to greatly relax the loan conditions and produce a series of so-called "financial derivatives". Around the end of 1990s, it suddenly became easy to buy a house in America. People who used to have unqualified personal credit can now get loans easily, and the 20% down payment that was generally required before can also be reduced for everyone. I have an American friend who was a first-year resident at that time. He was very happy to tell me that he had bought a house. I know very well that this brother not only has a large loan for school, but also has always been extravagant in his daily life. I don't often do moonlight (I work as a temporary doctor in other hospitals in my spare time), and sometimes I can't even pay the water and electricity bills. I am surprised that he can get a loan. He proudly said: "when you have two letters after your name, mortgage becomes very easy (if you have the word MD after your name, mortgage is a piece of cake)." We know that in any market, when demand exceeds supply, the price of goods will rise. It was this friend who sold the house when he left as a resident five years later, and calculated an account: after deducting interest, property tax and handling fees for buying and selling the house, the house lived for five years and still had a surplus. Such a high "profit" is obviously more cost-effective than renting a house. In this way, the house suddenly became a "hot spot for investment". At this time, a speculative financial derivative-subprime loan came into being. The so-called "subprime loan" means that an individual or company borrows a sum of money from a bank first, and then lends the money to people who are unwilling to lend at a higher interest rate than the bank to earn the difference. Some of these subprime mortgage companies do have relatively solid financial guarantee, and some are basically "empty gloves and white wolves". It is conceivable that when house prices are generally bullish, such companies can get rich overnight, and once house prices plummet, it is easy to go bankrupt overnight. In order to help banks and subprime mortgage companies attract more customers, another financial derivative-credit default swap (CDS, translated as "credit swap default" in China) came into being. It makes Australia and Brazil thirsty and eager to kill the fat dunazan of the oriole. span href="tag.php? name = % b 1% A3 % CF % D5 " onclick = " tag show(event)" class = " t _ tag " & gt； Insurance. " Specifically, do you want to call me back? 0% down payment, in order to let banks or subprime mortgage companies lend you money safely, you can buy insurance from CDS. CDs are not expensive. As long as you can afford the insurance of about $ 1000 per year, you can get a mortgage of $200,000 to $300,000. When you have financial problems and can't pay the principal and interest in time, if the money from your house auction is not enough to repay the loan, CDS can make up for the shortfall for you. Of course, if you have no problem, the money will become the profit of CDS. As a result, more and more people buy houses (including many people who buy houses purely for speculation), and house prices are getting higher and higher. Soaring house prices have further stimulated developers' desire to develop new residential areas with bank loans. In this way, driven by these policies and financial derivatives, the real estate industry in the United States is like a galloping horse, driving the American economy forward at a dazzling speed. Many "middle class" Americans suddenly find that they have become millionaires before they realize it. So some people don't understand: except those who own more than two houses, how can the rise and fall of house prices change the property of residents? In other words, even if your house price soars from 0.2 million/200 thousand to/kloc-0.0 million in five years, as long as you continue to live in it, it will still be the same house. The "earned" 800,000 yuan is just a waste of money, and you can't get it without selling the house. Even if you sell your house at a high price, you have to pay a high price for a new house, which means you won't lose money. If you think so, your thinking is still China's thinking. Americans don't think so and don't do so. They can continue to live in the house and use the house in advance to make profits for them. This is a mortgage loan. Specifically, when your house "appreciates" from 200,000 to/kloc-0.00 million, you can mortgage your house to a bank or loan company and get/kloc-0.00 million in cash. Besides paying off the first loan, you have at least 800 thousand left. You can spend this 800,000 wherever you want. Some people use it to pay their children's tuition, some people use it to buy expensive sports cars and jewelry, and some people use it to travel around the world. For those who want to speculate in real estate, they can constantly mortgage existing properties and buy new houses, forming a "snowball effect". If you care about the Beijing Olympic Games, you may remember Sean, the lovely little girl of the American gymnastics team. Sean's parents are not rich. The money they used to hire a coach for her came from their constant mortgage on their house. I think she is very lucky because she has caught up with the rapid development of American real estate economy. Today, it may be difficult for her to have the money to realize her dream of an Olympic gold medal. Such high real estate profits will undoubtedly despise the meager profits of all other industries. In this case, who is willing to invest in other industries? However, Americans should also eat and wear. Where does the truth behind this virtual economic expansion come from? It's amazing. Over the years, more than 200 million people in the United States have basically relied on people from other countries, mainly China. There is basically no manufacturing industry in the United States now. Even those old products related to people's livelihood are mostly produced by foreign workers in foreign lands. That is to say, while many Americans are happily calculating the increase of their wealth in soaring housing prices, workers in China and other third world countries are working overtime day and night to make necessities for them. They exchanged those green papers for the blood and sweat of Chinese workers; The China government returned these green papers to the United States in the form of US Treasury bonds or American company stocks to support its real estate economy. When China has so many green papers in its hands that the United States feels uncomfortable, they will rely on it through the depreciation of the dollar. The bubble will not be infinite, and it will burst one day. When many Americans are happy to become rich, some of them begin to find it more and more difficult to pay the principal and interest of their mortgage. As we all know, the monthly interest rates of100000 and 200000 mortgages are different. As a result, after more than ten years of crazy expansion, the big bubble of American real estate began to burst. First, a small number of people can't afford to repay their loans. They threw the house to the loan company and walked away. When this phenomenon became more and more common, people who sold houses began to surpass those who bought houses, so house prices began to fall. This price drop is highly contagious, and people who buy houses for speculative purposes begin to sell their stocks quickly, further aggravating the already cold real estate industry. Many sub-prime mortgage companies found that their repossessed houses had depreciated sharply and were insolvent, so bankruptcy became inevitable. Subsequently, CDS went bankrupt, and mortgage companies also faced bankruptcy. This is a bit like the cascade amplification effect of neurotransmitters in organisms. The big company that looked good yesterday was in a hurry overnight. Not only that, stocks related to real estate began to depreciate, and a lot of "wealth" of society, like water at high temperature, inexplicably "evaporated" from the world, and a financial crisis described as "tsunami" fell from the sky like a joke. Now, the American government has begun what is said to be the largest rescue operation in history. Some people laugh at the practice of the US government as a "socialist" act. In fact, people who say such things are either teasing or have no idea what socialism and imperialism are. Is the essence of socialism government intervention in economy? No, the essential characteristics of socialism are public ownership of the means of production and distribution according to work. Who says the capitalist government does not interfere in the economy? In the era of imperialism or monopoly capitalism, the state is actually the agent of big capital, and they are basically one. The government will not only use economic means to safeguard the interests of big capital when necessary, but also use war to achieve the same goal without hesitation when necessary. Those who use the actions of the US government to laugh at China's "elite" liberal economic arguments are really naive.