Since the listing of new cotton this year, the purchase price of domestic seed cotton has been rising all the way, from the 2.4 yuan per catty on the scale to the present 2.8-2.9 yuan (Grade III, the lint percentage is 36%, that is, 100 kg seed cotton can be processed into 36 kg lint). Recently, the prices in Handan, Hebei and Dali, Shaanxi even reached 2.92 yuan.
Li Hua, manager of the domestic information department of Beijing Cotton Information Outlook Consulting Company, believes that cotton farmers are reluctant to sell because of the decline in production, and the cotton purchase market is bullish.
Compared with the previous year, the cotton output in 2005/2006 will be greatly reduced. According to the figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total domestic cotton output in 2004/2005 was 6.32 million tons, and it is estimated that the output in 2005/2006 will be 5.6 million tons.
Li Hua believes that the figure of 5.6 million tons is too optimistic. Because the sown area has been greatly reduced this year, the forecast data of the Ministry of Agriculture has decreased by 1 1%. In the same year, disasters were more serious, especially in August and September, which led to a decline in yield per unit area. Li Hua said: "The decline in output will support the cotton purchase price."
"The weather in 65438+ 10 is more important, and the weather change will directly affect the output, which in turn will affect the purchase price of seed cotton. However, even if the weather is good in May 438+1October and June, the production reduction in Jiangsu and Anhui is irreversible. " Li Hua said.
Cotton people's reluctance to sell directly affects the purchase price and progress of cotton. At present, cotton farmers in some areas, especially in the disaster-stricken areas, have higher psychological expectations for future cotton prices. Feng, the information department of China Cotton Network, believes that farmers' reluctance to sell has a lot to do with the local disaster. If the local area is affected, farmers will want to sell cotton at a higher price to make up for the losses.
This year, the quality of cotton is very uneven. The cotton quality in the main cotton-producing areas is not good and the maturity is not high, such as Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong and Henan. Li Hua said: "compared with last year, one is that the grade is relatively poor, and the other is that the percentage of clothing was originally estimated to be relatively high." Now, except Shanxi, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, other regions are not high. "