202 1 is the first year of commercialization of Mini LED. According to Sigmaintell's preliminary calculation, the global shipment scale of Mini LED backlight intelligent terminal products was about 3.92 million in 20021year, and it is estimated that the data will reach160,000 in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of about 426.5438+0%. Among them, TV and flat panel are the main products in the development of Mini LED. With the active promotion of the head brand, the global shipment scale of Mini LED backlight TV is expected to reach 6.5438+0.8 million units in 2026+0, and the market scale is expected to approach 9 million units in 2025. In terms of IT (monitors and notebook computers) applications, it is estimated that the global shipment volume will exceed 65,438+million units in 20021year and 2 million units in 2025; As for tablet PCs, driven by the new Apple iPad Pro Mini LED, it is estimated that the global shipment scale will reach 265,438+million units in 20021year, and it is expected to exceed 5 million units in 2025. The following Sigmaintell will summarize and prospect the application market of MiniLED technology.
Television layout: positioning high-end, benchmarking organic light-emitting diodes; ; Lower prices and higher yields will push technology down.
1. brand layout: brand positioning, high-end product line, performance comparable to organic light-emitting diodes.
Sigmaintell summarized the layout of major global brands in TV Mini LED product line in 20021year. As the world's largest Mini LED promoter, Samsung launched the Neo Mini LED series products on 202 1 and 1, which enriched and supplemented the products in size and price range. Using quantum dot technology to improve the performance of high-end display products. LG followed closely, and after years of adhering to the high-end organic light-emitting diode technology route, it launched the Mini LED QNED4K and 8K product series, which was officially launched in July this year, with the highest price of 6499 US dollars. Although Sony has not introduced Mini LED products, for many years, the backlight technology of LCD products has adopted full array backlight display technology, which is similar to Mini LED backlight technology.
China brand should first mention TCL. TCL is a global leader in the research and development of Mini LED backlight TV, and is the first to mass-produce PM Mini LED backlight TV products. In 20 19, TCL introduced 75-inch PM Mini LED 4K and 8K HDR TVs in North America and China respectively. This year, POB and COB products of C 12 and X 12 were also launched, which is the earliest technical practitioner in the Mini LED backlight technology industry. Other China brands including Hisense, Skyworth, Xiaomi, Konka and Changhong also launched their own mini LED products.
Sigmaintell, represented by Samsung and LG, conducted product benchmark tests for Mini LED and OLED technology companies. From the QN90A product launched by Samsung in March 20021and the C 1 product launched by LG in April 20021,we can easily see that the Mini LED series products are currently positioned in the high-end product line, which is the same as the organic light-emitting diode product line.
1. With the decrease of material price and the improvement of yield, the Mini LED backlight scheme sinks the technology to the middle and high-end market.
The promotion of brand strategy is an important driving force for the scale growth of Mini LED products, and reducing the product cost space to a reasonable range is a necessary condition for expanding the market scale. With the improvement of process and equipment conditions, the technical scheme is more and more mature, and the yield is bound to increase gradually. At the same time, combined with the decline of raw material prices, it is expected that the cost of Mini LED backlight module will show a downward trend in the future.
Therefore, with the advantages of high contrast and fine image quality, as well as with the decline in the cost of Mini LED and the increase in the market demand for high-end large-screen display, Mini LED backlight display technology is expected to usher in a rapid development period. In the future, it is expected to be gradually popularized in the high-end LCD TV market, especially in the large-size market of 55 inches and above, thus becoming the mainstream configuration of high-end LCD TVs with terminal prices exceeding $65,438+0,000. At present, PM Mini LED products have been mass-produced. With the cost optimization and steady growth, and the active promotion of head brands such as Samsung and LG, the penetration rate and growth in the next five years are worthy of attention. The am mini LED of panel factory led is expected to achieve mass production this year. With the improvement of process and yield, its own cost advantage will be highlighted, and it is expected to narrow the gap with PM Mini LED in the next five years.
IT product layout: display products are mainly professional colors and high-end e-sports, and the notebook market needs to be broken.
1. Monitor market, focusing on high-end e-sports and professional color monitors.
The two major directions of Mini LED backlight display application, professional color display and e-sports display, are high-end display markets, and the terminal demand is in a booming stage. At this stage, the epidemic continues and the demand is stronger. So far, terminal brands such as ASUS, Apple, Acer, Hewlett-Packard, Dell, Lenovo and so on. All mini LED products have been produced and released. MSI released the world's first Mini LED backlit notebook computer at the end of 20 19, which was officially launched in July 2020. Lenovo also recently released its first mini LED display. However, the existing products are all high-end products. The products are positioned as professional monitors and e-sports monitors, with the resolution of UHD and above, and the partition ranges from 288 to 2300, which basically meets the standard of VESA HDR 1000, and the terminal price starts at $2,500.
The main advantages of Mini LED are high contrast and high color gamut space, which can perfectly meet the requirements of professional monitors for image quality. From the upstream industrial chain, the development intention is relatively strong, and the backlight cost of Mini LED is also decreasing year by year, with a significant year-on-year decrease in 202 1 year. With the gradual maturity of the industrial chain, the market scale and penetration rate will be further expanded in the future. Although 202 1 will delay the launch of new products due to the shortage of nesting materials, the subsequent cost reduction will drive the sales scale to increase substantially.
2. In the notebook market, high cost limits the scale growth, and Apple relies on brands to promote the scale growth.
Another IT application, the notebook computer market, mini LED 202 1, grew relatively slowly. Due to the high backlight cost of notebook products, especially the high partition products with a ratio of 1000 or more, the panel manufacturers and brand manufacturers have low promotion willingness and weak market driving force. According to Sigmaintell's observation, the development trend of M ini LED in the notebook computer market is slower than that in the display market, and 20021year was mainly driven by the new products of Apple Macbook Pro 16.
Layout of Tablet PC products: Driven by the Apple brand, the market has a good development prospect.
Mini LED backlight is also positioned as a high-end product in the direction of tablet computers. In 20021year, Apple released the iPad Pro equipped with Mini LED backlight technology, with more than 10000 LED chips built in the screen and supporting 2596 partitions. At present, only iPad Pro 202 1 is released for tablet computers, but relying on Apple's brand, I believe that more and more brands will be laid out on Mini LED backlit tablets in the future; With the gradual maturity of industrial chain and the decrease of cost, Mini LED technology will sink to the middle and high end, and the market development prospect is good. Sigmaintell predicts that the global shipment of mini LED backlit tablets is expected to reach 5 million units in 2025.
Outlook: Uncertainty still exists, and the strategy of OLED manufacturers will directly affect the product strategy and market space of Mini LED.
For the supply chain of Mini LED, the urgent task at present is still to improve the comprehensive competitiveness of Mini LED. With the gradual maturity of LED backlight technology, manufacturers are pursuing higher and higher cost and accuracy, and Mini LED chips will become smaller and smaller, and the size will gradually approach 200um. Upstream chip manufacturers, packaging factories and backlight factories are also constantly promoting the continuous innovation of backlight technology.
At the same time, as mentioned above, at present, in the TV and IT fields, the market positioning of Mini LED and organic light-emitting diode is highly coincident, and the Mini LED supply chain will face direct competition from the large-size organic light-emitting diode supply chain for a long time. In the face of highly overlapping markets, factors such as the choice of terminal brands, the increase of comprehensive cost and the improvement of display effect will further affect the growth space of Mini LED and organic light-emitting diodes.
Sigmaintell estimates that when the cost difference between Mini LED backlight and ordinary LCD backlight is reduced to less than 1.5 times, the terminal products with Mini LED backlight are expected to cross the "growth gap" and enter a stage of rapid development.