Since September last year, the domestic mortgage interest rate has quietly dropped, and this trend has continued until this year. Industry analysts believe that in the first half of this year, the mortgage interest rate should further decline, and the quota may return to a state of tension in the second half.
Start grabbing orders
The mortgage interest rate has fluctuated in recent years. As the embodiment of price, mortgage interest rate is influenced by market supply and demand on the one hand, and closely related to the positioning of mortgage business by banks on the other.
In 2020, the overall mortgage interest rate showed a downward trend.
On June 5438+February 3, 20201day, the Central Bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the Centralized Management System for Real Estate Loans of Banking Financial Institutions, which divided banks into five grades and set up "two red lines" indicators with their own characteristics. The first red line is the proportion of real estate loans, which refers to the proportion of all real estate loans (including personal housing loans and corporate mortgages) of a bank to all its loans.
The demarcation of the red line has changed the original market supply and demand structure, and the mortgage amount has become a "scarce product", which has pushed the mortgage interest rate soaring.
Take Guangzhou as an example. In the first half of 200212002, the mortgage interest rate in Guangzhou rose four times in a row, hitting a new high in nearly three years.
However, soon, the relationship between supply and demand in the market changed again.
With the strengthening of the state's regulation of the real estate market, people's enthusiasm for buying houses is declining day by day, which is followed by the shrinking amount of mortgage loans.
According to the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, in September, the prices of new houses and second-hand houses in Guangzhou both fell month-on-month, with new houses falling by 0. 1% and second-hand houses falling by 0.4%, which is the first time that the prices of new houses and second-hand houses in Guangzhou both fell. In June 5438+ 10, the decline gradually increased, with new houses falling by 0.3% month-on-month and second-hand houses falling by 0.6% month-on-month, which was the biggest decline among the four first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. 165438+ 10 month, the decline further expanded, with new houses down 0.6% and second-hand houses down 0.5%, with a slight narrowing.
From a national perspective, 165438+ 10, the sales price index of second-hand houses in 70 cities nationwide rose by -0.4% month-on-month, and the second-hand houses continued to show a downward trend, and the decline showed an expanding trend.
"The mortgage business volume is determined by the transaction volume of second-hand houses. At present, the transaction volume of second-hand houses is very low, and there is basically no mortgage business. " A person from a mortgage company in Guangzhou told CBN that the business of the mortgage company is very difficult now.
"The transaction volume of second-hand houses on the market is still relatively low. Although there is a rising trend month by month, the peak of the year of departure is still far away. " A person from a bank in Guangzhou said that the person said that under such a situation of "more monks than porridge", it is natural to reduce the price and "promote sales".
"Good Start" Price Reduction Promotion
Of course, in addition to the relationship between supply and demand, the bank's "good start" is another major reason for the downward adjustment of mortgage interest rates.
At present, banks are actively promoting "a good start". Credit business is a deep charge. In addition to mortgage, it also includes personal consumption loans, universal micro-loans and corporate loans, and interest rates have also been loosened.
And the loan amount at the beginning of the year is also loose.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Guangzhou Branch told CBN that the bank has implemented differentiated pricing and the quota is sufficient. Generally, you can lend money if you meet the loan conditions. In addition, according to public information, including China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank, they also said that they can lend money in one and a half months at the earliest.
However, the above-mentioned Guangzhou bankers reminded that this may also be a staged performance. "In the first half of the year, the bank quota will generally be relatively loose, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses in the market will also pick up. However, the tight quota will reappear in the second half of the year. After all, restrictions such as' two red lines' still exist, coupled with multiple factors such as sufficient supply in the new housing market this year. " The person said.