65438+February 17, the report "Research on the Investment Value of Commercial Housing in 35 Large and Medium-sized Cities" released by the same policy consulting research department and Tonghai Consulting shows that among the 35 large and medium-sized cities, including first-tier cities such as Beishangguangshen, provincial capitals and key second-tier cities, only 7 cities have a supply-demand ratio lower than 1. 1, of which Shenzhen (. The supply-demand ratios of Qingdao (real estate), Changchun (real estate), Lanzhou (real estate), Shenyang, Guiyang and Dalian (real estate) all exceeded 3, while Dalian reached 7. 18, making it the most unbalanced city in the sample.
"The ratio of supply and demand is less than 1. 1, indicating that the relationship between supply and demand is in a reasonable range, and it is a relatively balanced range between 1. 1~2. If the supply-demand ratio is greater than 2.0, it is an imbalance between supply and demand. " Zhang Hongwei, the participant of the research report and director of the same policy consulting research department, told the reporter of China Business News. The above report shows that the supply and demand of most cities in the 35 samples are relatively high, and the number of cities larger than 2.0 reaches 14, but this figure is in line with the current background of the national property market destocking.
There are 7 cities whose supply-demand ratio is below 1. 1, accounting for 20%. All the four first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen were short-listed, with Shenzhen having the lowest supply-demand ratio of only 0.57. In addition, the supply-demand ratio of Fuzhou (real estate), Hefei (real estate) and Shijiazhuang (real estate) is also within this range. "In cities with a supply-demand ratio in this range, commercial housing has high investment value." Zhang Hongwei explained that for the four first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, due to the rapid economic development, more employment opportunities and the continuous inflow of population, the housing demand will keep rising steadily in the future. However, due to the limitation of city size, the land supply will be limited to a certain extent, so the supply and demand are relatively low. And some second-tier cities, such as Fuzhou, Hefei, Shijiazhuang, etc., have a rapid population inflow and a large demand for housing.
"In cities with low supply-demand ratio, house prices may continue to rise in the future." Zhang Hongwei said that taking Shanghai (real estate) with a supply-demand ratio of 0.9 1 as an example, the resident population in 20 14 was 24,256,800, with a large population base and steady growth; As Shanghai is the economic center of the whole Yangtze River Delta region, the industrial agglomeration effect is obvious. In 20 14 years, its urban per capita disposable income will reach 477 10 yuan, which is in the forefront of the country, which will effectively support its potential demand in the future. "Therefore, we predict that the potential demand in Shanghai will reach18.86 million square meters in the next three years, ranking among the top 35 cities."
The above report also shows that among the key second-tier cities in the sample, Chengdu, Xiamen (real estate), Tianjin (real estate), Hangzhou (real estate), Xi 'an (real estate) and Nanjing (real estate) rank in the middle and upper reaches. "They have a good degree of economic development. They are basically population-importing cities and have certain investment value." Zhang Hongwei thinks.
Take Tianjin with the supply-demand ratio of 1.33 as an example. Binhai New Area is an important pole in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region with rapid economic development and a huge population. In 2065, it was 438+056,5438+0700, and its permanent population was 65,438+056,438. The population introduction was obvious, with an annual increase of 570,000 urban population. "We predict that the average demand for commercial housing in Tianjin in the next three years will be 6.5438+0.583 million square meters, but the housing supply and inventory in Tianjin are also large, so it is considered that supply and demand are relatively balanced."
However, the report also shows that Wuhan (real estate), Suzhou (real estate) and Chongqing (real estate), which are also key second-tier cities, have unsatisfactory supply-demand ratios of 1.96, 2.03 and 2.03 respectively. "The main reason is that the land supply in these three cities is too large, which leads to an increase in the ratio of supply and demand." Zhang Hongwei explained that Chongqing, for example, has a permanent population of 29914,000 in 20 14 years, ranking first among all cities, with a steady growth in population and no problems in urban fundamentals. According to this model, the demand for commercial housing in the next three years is predicted to be 46.36 million square meters, but the main problem in Chongqing is the excessive supply of urban land. In the past three years, its land planning and construction area averaged 84.67 million square meters.
The report also shows that several provincial capital cities in Northeast China and some cities in Northwest China are at the "bottom" position in the ranking of urban investment value because of the high ratio of supply and demand. For example, the supply-demand ratio of Qingdao is 3.07, Changchun is 3.27, Lanzhou is 3.7, Shenyang is 4.32, Guiyang is 5.33, and Dalian is as high as 7. 18. "Harbin (real estate), Changchun, Shenyang, Dalian and other northeastern cities, due to the outflow of population, poor economic development, reduced demand, Shenyang, Changchun and other cities have high inventory, and the supply-demand ratio is generally high; Cities (real estates) such as Qingdao and Hohhot are mainly destocking caused by high inventory. " Zhang Hongwei said.
The report pointed out that the economic development in Northeast China is slow and the population is in a state of outflow, so the real estate market is also affected accordingly. For example, the permanent population of Shenyang in 20 14 was 8.272 million, but the population growth rate was low, with an average annual growth rate of 30,000 in the past three years, and the future real estate growth potential will also be affected. "In addition, the phenomenon of land finance in northeast cities is outstanding, and the land supply is too large. For example, the average planned residential land construction area in Shenyang in the past three years reached 22.76 million square meters, and the residential inventory was high, resulting in relatively high supply and demand. "
Zhang Hongwei pointed out that according to the survey, for some cities with a supply-demand ratio greater than 2.0, due to the economic slowdown and small market capacity in the future, such cities often face greater inventory pressure and accumulate more risks, so developers and investors should be vigilant. These cities mainly include Taiyuan (real estate), Hohhot, Guiyang, Lanzhou, Changchun, Shenyang and Dalian.
Attachment: ranking of investment value of commercial housing in 35 large and medium-sized cities
Urban supply and demand ratio ranking?
Shenzhen 0.57 1 Yinchuan 1.99 2 1?
Fuzhou 0.86 2 Suzhou 2.03 22?
Shanghai 0.9 1 3 Chongqing 2.03 23?
Hefei 0.9 1.4 Wuxi 2.22 24?
Shijiazhuang 0.94 5 Jinan 2.25 25?
Guangzhou 1.00 6 Kunming 2.39 26?
Beijing1.047harbin 2.39 27?
Chengdu 1. 178 Taiyuan 2.80 28?
Xiamen 1.28 9 Hohhot 2.8 1.29?
Tianjin 1.33 10 Qingdao 3.07 30?
Hangzhou 1.38 1 1 Changchun 3.27 3 1?
Nanchang 1.48 12 Lanzhou 3.7 32?
Xi' an 1.55 13 Shenyang 4.32 33?
Haikou 1.60 14 Guiyang 5.33 34?
Nanjing 1.63 15 Dalian 7. 18 35?
Ningbo 1.63 16?
Changsha 1.70 17
Zhengzhou 1.73 18
Xining 1.73 19?
Wuhan 1.96 20
(The above answers were published on 20 16-07- 17. Please refer to the current actual purchase policy. )
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