Taking Beijing as an example, what buyers are happy to see is that after more than a year of heavy-handed regulation, Beijing's housing prices finally showed a year-on-year decline of 19 months in the first quarter, which made many ordinary buyers seem to see hope.
Although the regulation effect initially appeared after the release of article 10 in April last year, from September last year to the end of the year, the property market in several key cities across the country experienced a rebound in transaction volume and house price, and the regulation effect was questioned by the market. Under the new regulatory pressure, there are still many cities where house prices are rising instead of falling. The fundamental reason is that developers are "not short of money". Since the beginning of this year, various localities have issued purchase restriction orders one after another, the central bank has tightened market liquidity many times, and various localities have set housing price control targets one after another. the State Council Inspector Group conducted research on local property markets. Now, these intensive and strict property market control measures have put great pressure on the capital chain of most developers.
The real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry. Under the current situation, the financial attributes of the real estate industry are becoming more and more obvious. Judging from the operating law of the commercial housing market in China for more than ten years, developers have never cut prices because of regulation, but only because of lack of money. For real estate developers, the most important thing is capital, followed by factors such as land and market. In fact, under the heavy pressure of property market regulation, developers are also worried about property price reduction. Although the price reduction is welcomed by buyers, it will also bring a lot of trouble to the developers themselves. For example, it will reduce profits; It will make people who bought a house before have a psychological gap and ask for a return; Under the psychological control of buying up and not buying down, sales will get worse and so on. In short, developers will not take the initiative to reduce prices because of the above reasons.
But to give an extreme example, if the developer is faced with the break of the capital chain because of his lack of money, the developer will have the motivation to exchange sales for survival, because if the price is not reduced, the enterprise will face bankruptcy. At this time, it is the developer's choice to sell at a reduced price in exchange for sufficient funds. Only in this way can the house price drop significantly.
In China, there are not many sources of funds for developers. There are three main sources: sales revenue (including self-owned funds), bank loans and stock market financing. Judging from the current situation, the sales situation is generally bad, and the developers have limited funds to withdraw; Because bank loans are affected by regulation, it is increasingly difficult for developers to obtain them; The remaining path of the stock market, under the current circumstances, the financing amount of developers is also very limited.
Since 2009, the popularity of the domestic real estate market has made many developers earn a lot of money, which also gave them confidence not to cut prices last year. However, with the gradual deepening of regulation and the increasing intensity of regulation, the financial pressure of many developers is increasing day by day. Except for a few big developers with deep pockets, it will be the current choice for most developers to actively "save themselves", increase the push, increase supply and lower the sales price in order to withdraw funds as soon as possible.