General trend: new energy leads the fourth scientific and technological revolution
The technological revolution and industrial revolution cannot eliminate the economic cycle, but the crisis is often a turning point. Lu Yongxiang, president of China Academy of Sciences, predicted at the 2009 annual work conference of Chinese Academy of Sciences that the fourth scientific and technological revolution of mankind has been brewing in the international financial crisis, and the new energy revolution will be the key breakthrough of this scientific and technological revolution.
In the past 100 years, human beings have consumed half of the hydrocarbons accumulated on the earth for millions of years, and oil resources have passed the "supply peak". Different from consuming a lot of fossil energy such as coal and oil, the emerging new energy will take renewable energy as the main source, reorganize the energy consumption structure and energy utilization mode, thus giving birth to another global new technology and new industrial revolution led by new energy.
New energy refers to various forms of energy other than traditional energy. The United Nations Development Programme classifies new energy sources into the following three categories: large and medium-sized hydropower; New renewable energy sources, including small hydropower, solar energy, wind energy, modern biomass energy, geothermal energy and ocean energy; Infiltrate biomass energy. Although different countries have different emphases on the development of alternative energy, especially renewable energy, three of them are becoming the focus of big countries' efforts.
Solar energy is expected to become the first alternative energy source.
According to Xinhua News Agency reporter Ou Sa's report on June 5438+065438+ 10, 2006, Bradford, president of Prometheus Institute for Sustainable Development in Massachusetts, predicted in the newly published book Solar Revolution that solar energy will become the most effective and cheapest alternative energy in the next 20 years. A research report initiated by the National Security Space Office (NSSO) of the U.S. Department of Defense and attended by more than 70 experts at home and abroad suggests that the United States should start the experiment of cosmic solar power generation within 10 year. On June 5438+ 10, 2007, the Japanese Yonhap News Agency reported that according to the report of the research team, if a cosmic solar power station can be built, the solar energy collected in one year is equivalent to the sum of the proven reserves of conventional energy on the earth. This report predicts that in 2050, solar power plants in the universe are expected to begin to meet the energy needs of the earth.
According to the ITAR-TASS news agency reported in February 2008, the world's largest solar power station has been put into use in Portugal, with an annual power generation of 93 million kWh, which is enough to ensure the electricity consumption of 30,000 households. In April, 2009, San Francisco Chronicle reported that Pacific Gas and Power Company, headquartered in San Francisco, planned to purchase electricity from Solaron Company from 20 16, and the two companies had signed a contract of 15. According to the plan and contract, Solaren will use satellite solar panels sent to geosynchronous orbit to collect solar energy, convert it into radio frequency energy and send it back to the ground receiving station in California, then convert it into electric energy, and finally merge it into the power grid of Pacific Gas and Electric Company for commercial power generation. The Japanese government will start the research on the "Cosmic Solar Power Generation" project in 2009. This will not only help to expand the scope of space utilization, but also help to solve global warming and energy problems.
World solar energy congress is held every two years, and the number of participants has increased to 34 countries and regions. The development and utilization of solar energy has attracted the attention of more and more countries. It is reported that up to now, solar power generation accounts for less than 0. 1% of human energy demand. However, supporters of using solar energy believe that the era of solar energy may be coming, driven by the massive global investment in finding alternative energy sources for oil and preventing climate change.
The prospect of developing biofuels is broad.
As a kind of chemical energy, biomass energy can not only generate electricity and heat, but also be converted into liquid fuel and bio-based products. It is a kind of renewable energy that can replace fossil fuels on a large scale. Therefore, many countries are developing biofuels, showing broad prospects.
At present, the United States and Brazil are the largest producers of biofuel ethanol in the world, and their ethanol production accounts for more than 70% of the global ethanol production. In 2007, the biodiesel production capacity in Europe (mainly Germany) reached 5 million tons (about 5.8 billion liters). According to the statistics of the International Energy Agency, 57% of the global oil produced in 20001year was used in the field of transportation, among which automobiles were the major energy consumers. By 2007, the number of cars in the world has exceeded 800 million, and the annual output of cars in the world still exceeds 70 million. It is estimated that by 2020, the number of cars in the world will reach more than 654.38+0.2 billion. 62% of the oil produced in the world will be used in transportation. Three-quarters of new cars in Brazil can use a mixture of pure ethanol and pure gasoline. The United States proposed that by 20 12, half of the vehicles purchased by the US federal government will be plug-in hybrid vehicles or electric vehicles. Sweden proposes that by 2020, it will no longer rely on imported oil, but mainly use ethanol fuel produced by forest waste. Biofuels will also be widely used in production and the daily needs of residents. In May 2004, the World Wide Fund for Nature and the German Institute of Applied Ecology published research reports respectively, predicting that by 2020, 15% of the power sources in western industrial countries will come from biomass power generation, and 1 100 million households will use biofuels to generate electricity.
Using corn, soybean, sugarcane and other grain and oil crops as the main raw materials to produce ethanol fuel not only occupies a lot of cultivated land and competes with people for food, but also may destroy forests, wetlands and grasslands, causing new environmental and ecological disasters. In order to solve these contradictions, the research and development of the second generation biotechnology has made remarkable progress. The key technology to develop the second generation biofuel is catalytic enzyme technology. Enzyme is a biocatalyst, which can make biochemical reaction faster and more efficient in mild environment. This new enzyme preparation can decompose cellulose in plants into fermentable sugars and further convert them into ethanol. The U.S. Department of Energy supports the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to cooperate with enterprises to optimize cellulase, so that the second generation biotechnology is expected to realize industrialization and commercialization in 20 10.
Second-generation biofuels have the following advantages:
First of all, automobile engines can directly use gasoline or diesel mixed biofuel ethanol without modification; Secondly, the cost of catalytic enzyme technology for the second generation biofuel ethanol will drop rapidly in the next few years, and large-scale industrial production is feasible; Thirdly, cellulose agricultural wastes such as straws are rich in resources. A report released by the United States in June 5438+ 10, 2007 pointed out that in 2027, biofuel ethanol will occupy 20% of the gasoline market, creating an economic growth of 1 1000 billion US dollars, saving 50 billion US dollars in oil import costs and increasing 2.4 million jobs.
Nuclear fusion solves global energy problems.
Since the Soviet Union built the world's first nuclear power plant in 1954, there have been 435 nuclear power plants in the world, and the annual power generation of nuclear power accounts for 17% of the world's total power generation, of which 80% of France's power generation comes from nuclear energy. Experts believe that once the controlled nuclear fusion problem is solved, the global energy problem will be solved.
In June 2005, representatives from the European Union, the United States, Japan, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Korea and China reached an agreement in Moscow, and decided that Kadarash, France, would be the construction site of the international thermonuclear fusion experimental reactor. At present, nuclear power plants all over the world obtain huge energy through the fission reaction of the nuclei of heavy metals such as uranium and plutonium, and the nuclear fusion reaction mainly extracts hydrogen isotopes from seawater for nuclear fusion reaction, thus generating huge energy. Not only is the hydrogen in seawater almost inexhaustible on the earth, but also the radioactivity produced in the fusion process is very small, no nuclear waste is produced, and the pollution to the environment is very small. Scientists can extract 1/6 grams of tritium from one liter of seawater, and the energy released after fusion is equivalent to the energy released by burning 300 liters of gasoline. Sheng Zhengmao, a professor of physics at Zhejiang University, said that the technology of extracting tritium from seawater has been mastered, but the problem is that it cannot be controlled during nuclear fusion. In theory, it will take at least 30 years for seawater to aggregate into energy.
While participating in international cooperation in the development of nuclear fusion technology and application, several major countries are actively studying nuclear fusion issues. American scientists propose to create a miniature "artificial sun" by imitating the principle of nuclear fusion power generation in the sun center, which brings hope for exploring new energy sources in the future. From June 5438 to February 2008, the British "Daily Telegraph" reported that if the experiment is successful, scientists will take the first step to establish a realistic nuclear fusion power station. Because hydrogen is ubiquitous in the universe as experimental fuel, "artificial sun" will help scientists explore an almost inexhaustible energy source.
Some experts predict that mankind is expected to realize the controlled nuclear fusion within 50 years, thus solving the global energy problems. "By 2050, we will be able to use an intrinsically safe, reliable and carbon-free unlimited fuel supply-this is nuclear fusion power generation."
China's road to modernization: another opportunity not to be missed.
China's economic modernization has missed three historic opportunities. The first time was 1793, which missed the spread of the first industrial revolution. The second time was from 1842 to 1860, which missed the opportunity to start the second industrial revolution; The third time was from the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s, which missed the opportunity of technology transfer in the third industrial revolution. The upcoming fourth scientific and technological revolution is both a rare opportunity and a severe challenge for China. China can't go back to the old road of "pollution first, then treatment" in European and American countries, but must embark on a new road of industrialization and modernization with high scientific and technological content, good economic benefits, low resource consumption, less environmental pollution and full play to the advantages of human resources.
Without agricultural modernization, there will be no national modernization.
In 2007, the added value of the primary industry still accounted for 1 1.8% of China's GDP. In the employment structure, the employment rate of the primary industry labor force is 40.8%; The rural population is 727 million, still accounting for 55% of the national population of 135438+0 billion. China is in a critical period of transition from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture and from traditional rural society to modern society. The sustainable development and modernization of agriculture in many countries in the world provide us with valuable experience:
1, take effective measures to protect cultivated land.
China feeds 22% of the world's population with 7% of the world's arable land. The problem is that the population of China keeps increasing, but the cultivated land is decreasing. From 1996 to 2005, the cultivated land area in China decreased by 1 100 million mu, and the per capita cultivated land decreased to 1.4 mu, which was only 1/3 of the world average. In 2020, whether China's cultivated land area can be maintained at 65.438+0.8 billion mu will have a great impact on China's medium and long-term food supply and security.
Land is not only the most basic living guarantee for farmers, but also the guarantee for realizing the basic self-sufficiency and food security of major agricultural products such as grain. We must take effective measures to keep the "red line" of 654.38+0.8 billion mu of cultivated land.
2. Vigorously develop modern agriculture.
The main characteristics of modern agriculture are large-scale production, enterprise management, product standardization and maximum benefit, and the processing rate of agricultural products exceeds 90%. We should proceed from the reality of small-scale farmers and scattered management in China, promote the transformation of agricultural management mode on the basis that the existing land contract relationship remains stable and unchanged for a long time, constantly adapt to the new requirements of agricultural productivity development, and unswervingly take the road of agricultural modernization with China characteristics.
We should use modern science and technology, production means and management methods to transform traditional agriculture and realize the sustainable development of agriculture.
According to statistics, before the reform and opening up, agricultural investment accounted for more than 5% of the total investment of state-owned units, but by 1995, the proportion of agricultural investment was only 2%. During the 30 years from 1949 to 1979, 87,085 reservoirs (654.38+more than 10,000 cubic meters) were built in China, with an effective irrigation area of 730 million mu, accounting for14 of the world's irrigation area. However, since the reform and opening up 30 years ago, only 827 reservoirs of various types have been built. Many developed countries strongly support the construction of agricultural infrastructure, promote the construction of agricultural mechanization and informatization, especially increase investment in research and development, vigorously develop biotechnology, improve agricultural production efficiency and accelerate the process of agricultural modernization. These experiences are also worth learning.
Energy is a powerful driving force to realize all-round modernization.
China is in the process of industrialization, and industry and agriculture still account for a large proportion. The national people's demand for food, clothing, housing and transportation has increased rapidly, and the required energy has been expanding. We must use clean energy, save energy and reduce emissions, realize the harmonious and sustainable development between man and nature, man and environment, and thus embark on a new road of modernization.
1, effective development and utilization of coal resources
According to the data released by the Ministry of Land and Resources in 2002, China's coal resources and basic reserves are 686.062 billion tons and 334.088 billion tons respectively, ranking first in the world. The recoverable reserves are 204 billion tons, ranking second in the world. The main problems are not only low recovery rate and utilization rate, but also serious loss, and a large number of pollutants are discharged during consumption.
According to statistics, from 1949 to 2003, the national coal mining totaled 35 billion tons, but the resource consumption exceeded 100 billion tons, and the average recovery rate was less than 30%, far below the level of 80% in developed countries. Coal accounts for about 70% of China's energy consumption structure, but its utilization efficiency is low, especially a large amount of coalbed methane burned in vain, which has become one of the main environmental pollution sources. If we rely on advanced technology, especially clean coal technology, China's coal resources can not only be mined for a longer period of time, reduce dependence on external energy, but also greatly improve the ecological environment.
2. Actively develop and utilize nuclear energy.
According to the report of China Economic Times in 2009, China has put into production more than 9 million kilowatts of nuclear power installed capacity, but it only accounts for about 2% of the national total installed capacity. The focus of China's energy structure adjustment is to accelerate the development of nuclear power.
In terms of nuclear power development strategy, we adhere to the technical route of developing the advanced PWR nuclear power of one million kilowatts, and are currently working in accordance with the "three-step" steps of thermal neutron reactor, fast neutron reactor and controlled nuclear fusion reactor. Actively follow the development trend of nuclear power technology in the world, independently research and develop technologies of high-temperature gas-cooled reactor, intrinsically safe pressurized water reactor and fast breeder reactor, and start experimental or demonstration projects in time according to the progress of various technology research and development. According to Xinhua News Agency reporter Cai Min, in June of 5438+October of 2007/KLOC-0, a new generation of "artificial sun" experimental device in China-Hefei full superconducting non-circular cross-section nuclear fusion experimental device passed the acceptance of various professional groups of Chinese Academy of Sciences, a major national scientific project, and was successfully discharged several times in the process of physical experiments. China may become one of the first countries to realize nuclear fusion power generation.
3. Vigorously develop renewable energy sources such as biofuels.
China is rich in renewable energy resources such as wind energy, hydro energy, geothermal energy and ocean energy, with straw reaching 700 million tons every year, and agricultural waste resources are extremely rich, which has great potential for developing biofuels. In order to cope with the increasing pressure on resources and environment and realize the sustainable development of economy and society, the government of China plans to increase the proportion of renewable energy in primary energy supply from the current 8% to about 15% by 2020.
Energy is the blood and powerful driving force for the sustainable development of economy and society. The development and wide application of new energy can not only ensure energy supply, but also continuously improve the environment. Taking the road of new modernization will not only promote the overall modernization of China, but also make great contributions to the coordinated economic development of all countries.
Review the three technological revolutions of mankind.
First of all, the steam engine "changed the world"
Tool innovation occupies a major position in the technological revolution and is the fuse of the industrial revolution. 1733, workers in Lancashire, England invented the flying shuttle, 1764, weaver Hager Rivats invented Jenny's spinning wheel, which improved the efficiency by 8 times. 1768, Akelet invented the hydraulic spinning machine, which was the world's first "big machine" and the world's first factory was born.
/kloc-scientific revolution in the 0/7th century, and put forward the principle of "engine for taking water by fire". On the basis of a lot of research and experiments by experts and producers, Watt made an efficient steam engine in 1776, and the steam engine began production in 1785. Watt completed the production technology system from power machine to machine tool, and his great success "changed the world".
The wide application of steam engine greatly accelerated the pace of British industrial revolution, promoted the rapid development of railways, shipping and large-scale production in factories, and made the energy consumption structure transition from bioenergy to coal. From 65438 to 0870, Britain's coal mining accounted for 5 1.5% of the world's coal mining. Germany has rapidly developed the synthetic chemical industry by making use of the scientific achievements of coal chemical industry. From 65438 to 0873, the output value and quality of German dye industry surpassed that of Britain. The synthetic dye industry has promoted the textile industry (synthetic fiber) and pharmaceutical industry (aspirin, etc. ), coating industry and synthetic rubber industry. Many natural products have been replaced by chemical products, and mankind has entered the "era of chemical synthesis" and the "new world of man-made products".
Second, power technology "opens a new era"
The power technology revolution originated in Europe and was completed in the United States. 1866, after inventing the electric motor, V. Siemens of Germany wrote to his brother in London: "Power technology has a bright future, and it will open a new era."
1876, when the United States celebrated its independence 100 anniversary, an international exposition attended by 37 countries was held in Philadelphia, and the United States exhibited high-power engines and motors. After Siemens, Bell invented the telephone in 1876, and Edison invented the electric light in 1879. These three great inventions "illuminate the road for human beings to realize electrification". Driven by the electric power technology revolution, the United States, European countries and Japan all take electric power construction as the focus of national construction projects, and the electrification boom has arisen worldwide.
The application of engines and motors has led to the emergence and development of a series of emerging industries. 1886, Daimler of Germany installed the engine he developed on a carriage, and the first car was born in the world. 1927, Ford Motor Company's car sales in the United States reached150,000, and the United States became the "automobile kingdom". 1903, American Wright brothers installed 12 horsepower gasoline engine on the glider, and the test flight was successful, "marking that mankind has entered the aviation era."
With the popularization of roads, aviation, electricity and other means of transportation, the energy consumption structure has gradually changed from coal-based to oil-based. According to statistics, by 1862, the world oil production was only 3 million barrels. In the last decades of the19th century, the petroleum industry became the largest and most widely distributed business and industry in the world.
Third, the computer-the extension of the human brain.
1944, under the leadership of the Ministry of national defense, the United States began to develop computers. 1946, the world's first electronic digital computer ENIAC was built, which opened a new era of computer science and technology and kicked off the information technology revolution.
A computer is an information processing tool. If other tools made by human beings are extensions of human hands, then computers, as tools to process information instead of human brains, can be said to be extensions of human brains. Since 1996, when the first supercomputer with floating-point operation speed exceeding one trillion times per second came out, the world's largest computer manufacturer has been holding a competition. In June 2008, IBM and the US Department of Energy announced that the United States has developed a new generation of the fastest computer in the world, with a maximum computing speed of 65,438+0,000 trillion times per second. In February 2009, IBM announced that it would build a computer that can perform 2 trillion floating-point operations per second, and its computing power is equivalent to more than 2 million laptops. The Argentine website "2 1 Century Trend Weekly" quoted a report from Microsoft Corporation of the United States as saying that the physiological boundary between human beings and computers will disappear in 2020.
Three changes in production tools have greatly improved productivity, labor efficiency and economic development. Some economists believe that it is not enough to use the formula of "productivity = (laborer+labor tool+labor object) × science and technology" now, and the new formula should be "productivity = (laborer+labor tool+labor object) as the driving force of high technology", that is, the role of science and technology in the three elements of productivity is not only calculated by multiplication, but increased by power series.
Background introduction of energy consumption
In the process of the accelerated development of the world economy and the rapid increase of wealth, a large number of fossil energy resources, especially coal and oil resources, have been consumed, which has seriously damaged the ecological environment. About 40% of the deaths in the world are related to pollution. According to the survey of the World Health Organization, 654.38+0.2 billion people in the world have suffered from various diseases due to drinking polluted water, and 25 million children worldwide die from diseases caused by drinking polluted water every year. According to the latest satellite monitoring data released by NASA from June 5438 to February 2008, during the five years from 2003 to 2007, the land glaciers in Antarctica, Alaska and Greenland in the Arctic have melted more than 2 trillion tons. The trend of global warming is becoming more and more obvious. Rising water temperature not only leads to methane release from frozen soil, but also leads to rising sea level, threatening the safety of many island countries and regions and coastal cities. The deterioration of ecological environment and global warming have also caused more and more serious spontaneous combustion disasters. In September 2008, an article published by Time magazine pointed out that the number of floods and storms has increased by 7.4% every year in recent decades. In 2007, among the 654.38+97 billion people affected by disasters, 654.38+64 billion were flood victims. In April 2009, Oxfam International, a development aid organization, published a report predicting that by 20 15, the number of people affected by drought, flood and food shortage in the world will reach 375 million.