What kind of professional world will children face in the next 30 years?
In 2040, the professional environment will change from the information age to the concept age, with more, fiercer, faster and more unpredictable changes. This is a career centered on happiness and self-realization. We all hope that children will not lose at the starting line. Then, can our current education for children really make them competent for such an era of declining rationality, enhanced concepts, rapid changes in majors, industries and occupations, and real pursuit of happiness rather than success? What kind of education does the owner of the future world need?
First, what is education?
Let me start with a question, that is, how did the English word Education come from? I gave a lecture on vocabulary in New Oriental. This word was invented by Socrates and is a spelling of three roots. The previous "e" means outward, "duce" means guidance, and "tion" is a noun, leading out. The so-called education is to really guide a person's heart and help him grow into himself.
Let me tell a story to better illustrate such a good idea as "elicitation". There are two people sitting in front of a federal court in the United States, a 4-year-old black girl and her mother. They are very happy to hold this newspaper, which reads: The Supreme Court banned the apartheid system in middle schools today. This photo was taken at 1956. That year, the little girl wanted to go to the white school in her community and was rejected. Because at that time, white schools and black schools could not be mixed together. Her lawyer father angrily filed a lawsuit. The lawsuit went all the way to the U.S. federal court, where six justices sat together to discuss whether it was against the U.S. Constitution to separate blacks from whites. This is also the first time that psychology has been cited as a measurement discipline.
Through experiments, we can see that when whites and blacks are separated, although the child is only four years old, it can still be clearly recognized that whites are better than blacks. So these justices came to a conclusion, which is the famous American education law 1956.
The author of this bill is Brown. Judge Brown clearly stated the viewpoint of education in the legal document for the first time: education is to help a child to seek his own happiness more successfully in his future life (pay attention to his own happiness, not his family's, not their school's. ) and education is not to mold a suitable screw for the social machine. Seeing this sentence, my eyes filled with tears. Finally, someone told me that the education I received from childhood was not to be a screw of a social machine, but to lead out and let my best self come out. Education should be to listen to a child's voice, help him become himself and help him find the happiness he wants in his future life.
Second, what kind of world will the future world be?
Now all our education wants children not to lose at the starting line, but what I want to ask is, what kind of world will the future world be? Do you realize that primary school students really need the ability of primary school teaching at the peak of their lives? In fact, it is not the time for the college entrance examination, but when I am 35 years old. At the peak of his career, he needs to apply some interpersonal skills from elementary school. So today's talent is when he is 35 years old, that is, when he adapts to society in 2040, not when he is 16 or 18 years old. So what kind of world will the future world be, and what kind of life will children pursue today? Is it possible that every child has not lost at the starting line, and the future is actually a swimming competition? We tried to get him to run to a starting line, but in fact, there is no need to run in the future, and a brand-new rule may appear.
What should the professional environment be like in 2040? The first one turned from the information age to the concept age. This is Chess King versus Deep Blue Computer, that is, a computer and a Chess King played six games, and now it's 3-3. Let's look at another picture. Four years ago, Foxconn learned from a painful experience and decided to robotize the whole Foxconn. These robots will not sleep for 24 hours, will not resign or complain, and will not ask for a raise. In the past 20 years, many important jobs in the information age will be greatly replaced by computers in the next 20 years, and by that time, all people engaged in these jobs may be unemployed. For example, many people flock to bank tellers now. After five years and ten years, this position will be less and less. If you don't have other skills, it will be embarrassing.
The ability of logical analysis is the core of the information age, but what is the conceptual age? Is a highly conceptual and emotional talent. For example, McKinsey is the largest arc consulting group in the world. 1993, 67% of employees are MBA. In 2003, this proportion has dropped to 4 1%. Now 10 years have passed, and it continues to decline. So who filled McKinsey's top MBA? It was McKinsey that added a lot of MFA (Master of Fine Arts), that is, Master of Fine Arts. Mckinsey realized that their survey report must be expressed in an artistic way, so many MFAs gradually replaced MBA. More interestingly, several companies have been very popular recently. One is an apple. What does Apple depend on, programmers and engineers? No, it depends on good ideas. Win by concept? The second millet, what does millet depend on? There is no strong product factory behind Xiaomi, and the core still relies on strong fan marketing and participation. Is it perceptual operation or logical operation? Another example is the service of Haidilao. When the information age is advancing to the concept age, those who used to work only by knowledge and logic will gradually be replaced by computers, which will depreciate more and more, and those jobs that only people can do can really be done. Computers can do calculations, but creativity can't.
The second change is that the change will be more, fiercer, faster and more unpredictable. 20 10 the average life span of small and medium-sized enterprises in China is 2.97 years, that of the world's top 500 enterprises is 40 years, and that of the world's top 1000 enterprises is 30 years. How long is your career? If you work at the age of 25 and retire at the age of 65, it will be 40 years. This means that if you start a business as soon as you graduate and become one of the top 500 companies in the world, then the company will close down in the year when you retire. So when the Fortune 500 companies only have a life span of 40 years, you will understand more clearly that it is impossible for future children not to jump ship. He will definitely change at least five or seven jobs and two or three industries in his life. In fact, not only the company's life is short, but also the fate of the industry. It will become more and more difficult to stay in a company and an industry all your life. At this time, if we still teach him to study a major well during college, do you think it may be a curse and harm to him?
The third change is a life centered on happiness and self-realization. The GDP of China and the United States, the per capita GDP of China in 2008 was $3,400, and that of 20 13 was $6,470. It is estimated that by 20 16, the per capita GDP of China will reach 8,000 US dollars, the GDP of China and the United States will be close in 2025, and it will be flat in 2040. Unfortunately, since the last century 1994, the average happiness of China people has not improved significantly, and even declined for several years. I don't think it is necessary to give data on this point. People are already feeling it.
Why are the figures of $3,000 and $8,000 so important? Because there is a very important observation in economics that $3,000 is the limit of a country's modernization, which means that a country and a nation are out of poverty and begin to live a well-off life and a happy life, so China probably lived a well-off life in 2008. Eight thousand dollars is also a recognized turning point in economics. After this point, there is no significant positive correlation between happiness and economic benefits, which means that no matter how we earn money in another year or two, we will not be happier. Our happiness will not increase with the increase of income.
So I think the next generation, like our generation, will not pursue a house, a sense of security, survival and making money, but for what? They will really start to pursue happiness instead of us, and we feel that this life is a bit extravagant. This is actually in line with Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory. Maslow's needs are divided into three levels: survival at the bottom, socialization at the middle and self-realization at the top. The main demand of people appears during the period from 14 to 18, and the demand will gradually solidify. What are the main needs of the post-60s generation? Their childhood experienced natural disasters and the early Cultural Revolution, so the core of this group of people is the need for survival and respect. It's not the same after 70. People in the first half of the 1970s are idealistic, because everyone was poor at that time, but people in the second half began to pursue success in the sea. Therefore, the post-1970s generation is the most tangled generation in China. He is sometimes romantic, sometimes a poet, and sometimes he makes money, which is the most tangled.
After 90, it's completely different. Do you feel safe after 90? No. Are there any recognized needs? The post-90s generation is the first group to openly admit that they are brain-dead and diaosi on the Internet, and that the other party is a goddess. Psychologically, a person's heart must be extremely strong to dare to demote himself to this state. The post-90s generation has long been concerned by the six groups of parents, grandparents and grandparents, and the demand for identity has exploded. Therefore, the post-90s generation showed a strong demand for self-realization. Although this bothers us, on the bright side, if the whole family is regarded as one person, in fact, the post-90 s generation has largely realized the needs of the whole family to feel self-realization and identity from the beginning. Although a little immature, their pursuit of personal growth and existence is a historical trend, which is completely in line with the external environment.
Speaking of now, do you think your education is in line with this era? As far as your education of children is concerned, can you really make them qualified for this era? Are you qualified for an era when rationality is declining, ideas are strengthening, majors, industries and occupations are changing rapidly, and you really pursue happiness instead of success?
3. What kind of education does the owner of the future world need?
Then let me talk about how to be competent. What do future masters need? The first one is from rationality to sensibility. Daniel Pinker, a famous futurist, said that there are six skills in the future: sense of design, ability to tell stories, ability to integrate things, and emotional ability. You need to be able to play, and you need to find a sense of meaning. To put it simply, when our per capita GDP is equivalent to that of the United States in 2040, people who live well should be like this: tasteful, storytelling, cross-border, like people, playful, and a little pursuing.
In the 1990s, perhaps parents would advise their children to choose civil servants, bank tellers and civil engineers. Because the skills are hidden, there are organizations and units, and the skills are the safest to hide. Maybe in recent years, parents will encourage their children to study international trade, finance and computer engineering. However, in 2040, the most core and outstanding group of people in society, in my opinion, must be engaged in the career of product manager, director and tourism designer, which is a blend of humanities and technology. This profession is the general trend of the future.
The second is from planning to creation. Let's look at a famous case first. 1953, Harvard University once conducted a survey on the results of life goals, and found that 27% of people have no goals, 60% have vague goals, 10% have clear goals but short-term goals, and 3% have clear goals and long-term goals. In the past 25 years, it was found that the group with longer goals lived better, with 3% people at the top and 27% people living badly. But after investigation, it was confirmed that the story was completely fabricated from beginning to end. Why did the story spread so widely? Because it is in line with our wrong judgment, we always hope that the future is planned, planned and set, and parents hope that their children can settle down as soon as possible and not move. In my opinion, your greatest harm to your child's future is that he will not be allowed to make all the most important decisions, such as primary school, university, daughter-in-law, house and job. So at the age of 35, when he really faced a career change, you knew nothing and he never made a choice. Therefore, for today's life, the really appropriate attitude is that adaptation is more important than planning. We should encourage children to make a plan for three to five years, and then have strong cross-border integration ability, keep curiosity, embrace change, and create their favorite career at the right time.
The third trend is to ensure that your children have the ability to be happy. In this world where not everyone can succeed, you must give your children the ability to be happy. The so-called happiness is meaningful happiness. Einstein succeeded in creating a working method that can give full play to his own advantages. Some people can turn interest into passion, while others can find meaning behind their work. All this can make you feel that although your work is not the most successful, it must be happier, because in today's Internet age, no one regards himself as the most successful.
Tell another true story. I have a friend who is a teacher. One day, when he was eating in a snack bar, he walked into a middle-aged man playing the violin with a little girl beside him. He knew at a glance that he had just participated in a small performance, but the little girl was pouting and unhappy. It turns out that this little girl just took the violin level 3 exam and has never taken it. Her father said that he didn't sign you up for this violin class to make you pass the grade. Dad just hopes that one day when you grow up and dad is not around, when you feel unhappy, open the piano box and play a song for yourself, and the familiar music will come out and surround you, just like dad is still around you. I hope you have such a hobby and can accompany you at this moment. After listening to this, my friend cried unwillingly. Therefore, I think the ability to make myself happy is also extremely important, especially in the future world where information is transparent and it is impossible for everyone to succeed. You must help your child acquire this ability.
Finally, to sum up, I think all future masters have these skills.
The first one has perceptual thinking, not just rational thinking.
The second is to have professional adaptability and creativity, not planning ability.
The third is to have the ability to make yourself happy, so that you can be happy whether you succeed or not. I think from strength to beauty is the direction of children's training in the future, and many beautiful people should be cultivated.
Finally, I want to tell a story that is very important to me. This story made me decide to make a career plan. The hero of this story is Einstein. In the 1960s, a student of Princeton University was a reporter for the school newspaper. One day, he received an interview with Einstein. As it happens, this guy is a physics student. As you can imagine, a physics student is so excited about interviewing Einstein. After reading all Einstein's interviews, he found that none of the questions were asked by people who really understood science. He vowed to ask Einstein a truly intelligent question as a physics student and dig out Einstein's true wisdom. He is reading in a huge library with a high ceiling and a green chandelier on the table. Reading until two or three o'clock in the evening, suddenly an inspiration touched his head. There's a great question. He carefully copied it down, folded it in half and then folded it in half, put it in his left front pocket and went home to sleep.
At 2: 30 the next afternoon, he went to Einstein and knocked at Einstein's small building. The door opened and Einstein stood in front of him. Just like the photo, Einstein has an explosive head, wearing a pajamas, stepping on wool slippers and stepping on a khaki carpet. Einstein nodded to him and motioned him to go in, holding a pipe in his left hand. The young man walked along the corridor with him and entered the living room. The living room is about 10 square meters, there is a sofa, there is a coffee pot next to the sofa, making coffee and making a purring sound. The whole room is filled with the smell of magic coffee and tobacco. Many years later, the young man recalled that afternoon, and he remembered the magical mixture of tobacco and coffee.
After Einstein sat down, the young man asked: As the greatest scientist of our time, what do you think is the most important scientific problem of this time? I don't want you to have an answer, I just want to know what is the most important scientific question of this era. Einstein said, well, that's a good question. The young man was very happy, thinking that I had baffled Einstein and was waiting for Einstein to answer. Einstein closed his eyes, time passed slowly, dust danced in the light, and the room smelled of coffee beans and tobacco. After about 15 minutes, Einstein looked at the young man with sparkling eyes, and the young man knew that he had the answer. He said what the answer was.
Einstein said, young man, if there is any important scientific question, I think it is whether the world is good or evil. The young man said, Mr Einstein, isn't this a religious issue? Einstein said no, because if a scientist believes that the world is evil, he will spend his whole life inventing weapons, making barriers, making things that hurt people, making walls and driving people farther and farther away. But if a scientist believes that the world is kind, he will spend his whole life inventing connections, creating connections and inventing things that can connect people more and more closely. After all this, Einstein closed his eyes. The young man knew that he had got the answer. He stood up gently, crossed the corridor and closed the door. The answer was published in the newspaper the next day, which also influenced many people. The young man later became one of the founders of the Internet.
So I want to say, in terms of career, if there is any most important issue, I don't think it is technology, what capabilities we need in the future, or what technical methods we have, but what your confidence in the future looks like. Everything is oriented to the future, so your belief in the future world is the most important educational belief. If a parent and a teacher believe that the future is beautiful, then he will teach children to open possibilities, create possibilities, try more and experience beautiful things. But if parents and teachers think the future is gloomy, they will teach their children to protect themselves, start studying hard, pass those exams, find a stable job and be honest and mediocre.
So I want to say that your judgment on this future world is actually the most important topic about vocational education. I have my own answer, so this is a letter I wrote to my one-year-old daughter. I said, dear Bender, I hope you have a serious and wonderful life. Compared with yourself, I hope you can live a life I have never understood or seen before.
And to everyone.