According to incomplete statistics, at least seven cities have restricted the price reduction behavior of housing enterprises through interviews or policies. However, behind the price reduction, the heavy debt pressure and the slow return of funds are the realities that some housing enterprises have to face, and a house price defense war is being staged.
At least seven cities have issued "price limit orders"
According to the incomplete statistics of the paper, up to now, seven cities including Zhuzhou, Jiangyin, Heze, Yueyang, Kunming, Shenyang and Tangshan have issued "price limit orders".
It is called "price limit order" because some real estate enterprises or intermediaries were interviewed or stopped by the government for selling or acting as agents for new commercial housing, which was lower than the selling price and obviously lower than the normal market price.
Take Zhuzhou, Hunan as an example. On September 9th, some citizens and netizens reported that Jinbi Real Estate, Rong Sheng Real Estate, Borui Real Estate, Xinsheng Wanbo, Shell Broker and other enterprises sold newly-built commercial houses or sold commercial houses as agents at prices significantly lower than the normal market, seriously disrupting the order of the real estate market. In this regard, Zhuzhou City Housing and Construction Bureau subsequently interviewed the person in charge of the above-mentioned enterprise project and included it in the bad credit record of the enterprise.
Previously, on August 3 1, the Notice on Further Promoting the Healthy and Stable Development of the Real Estate Market issued by the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Jiangyin City, Jiangsu Province clearly mentioned that after the sales price of commercial housing was filed, the actual transaction price of commercial housing should not be higher than the filing price. At the same time, it is strictly forbidden to dump at low prices and fight price wars (such as below cost price and disguised price reduction). ), resolutely put an end to vicious competition, price reduction, overdue delivery and other illegal acts.
Judging from the cities that have announced the "price limit order" at present, the main suppression in various places is malicious price reduction, and the sales pricing of some housing enterprises is far below the market price, which is considered to seriously disrupt the market.
Cartography: thesis
What's the matter with real estate enterprises selling at reduced prices?
What is the reason behind the price reduction of housing enterprises?
The scale of sales has "turned from rising to falling", and the pressure on housing enterprises to withdraw funds has increased or is one of the reasons.
According to the data monitoring released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the same policy research institute shows that in July, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was1.1.50 billion square meters, down 9.45% year-on-year and 40.6% quarter-on-quarter. This is also the first time in the past year that the real estate sales in China have entered a downward channel.
From the perspective of the development fund structure, the proportion of sales return to financing reached 57. 15%, which was 3.9 percentage points higher than that in 2020, and the proportion of domestic loans to financing was 65.438+02.95%, which was 0.87 percentage points lower than that in 2020, indicating that the financing of housing enterprises mainly depended on sales return, and it was on the rise, and the financing of housing enterprises in the future mainly depended on "self-hematopoiesis". For the first time, the growth of sales scale "turned from rising to falling", indicating that the core funding sources of housing enterprises began to decline, and the pressure on housing enterprises to withdraw funds increased.
Sun Hongbin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Sunac China, mentioned at this year's interim results meeting that the market pressure in the second half of the year was relatively large, mainly from two aspects. One is that some enterprises are forced to cut prices, and the other is that the national policy is relatively firm, so that everyone expects that house prices will not rise. Now the economic pressure is relatively great, and everyone's purchasing power has been affected.
Sun Hongbin thinks that the current market is particularly like 20 18. "The whole credit market is short of funds. Sales were better in the first half of the year, but loans were more difficult. However, loans remained equally difficult in the second half of the year, and the sales market fell sharply. There is a lot of sales pressure in the second half of this year, and it is expected that the market will remain fierce in the second half of this year. "
The property market turns or becomes industry knowledge. Guo Yingcheng, Chairman and Executive Director of Caesars Group, said at the performance meeting that in recent years, especially this year, the regulation of the real estate market has been more precise and the implementation of policies has been faster than before. However, at the same time, we are also facing enormous challenges. After precise regulation and control, after sales at the sales end, the return of mortgage funds may be slower than before, which also brings some pressure to enterprises.
In addition, debt pressure is also a "sword" hanging over some housing enterprises.
According to the relevant data released by Tongce Research Institute, the arrears of housing enterprises reached 1.2 trillion this year, and the average monthly debt exceeded10 billion. The average debt ratio of the real estate industry in the second quarter was 77.85%, which was 65,438 0.34 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter and 65,438 0.23 percentage points lower than that in 2020 when three red lines were proposed. This shows that the regulation effect has begun to appear, and housing enterprises take reducing debt and optimizing the three red lines as the primary strategy. At the same time, however, more stringent regulatory measures have also accelerated the exposure of some housing enterprises to their debt defects, and the number of default cases of housing enterprises' bonds is increasing.
According to RealData statistics, this year, the phenomenon of bond default in the real estate industry has increased significantly compared with the past two years. In just 6 months, 12 housing enterprises defaulted.
Song Hongwei, research director of Tongce Research Institute, believes that when the real estate market sells well in the first half of the year, it is easier for housing enterprises to withdraw funds to pay off debts. However, since July, the whole industry has entered the downward channel, and it is difficult to withdraw funds, and the debt repayment pressure is outstanding. For the sake of cash flow, selling at a reduced price and exchanging quantity with price have become the choices of many housing enterprises.
Facing the current market environment, Xu Shitan, chairman of Shimao Group, mentioned at the interim results meeting that the policies of housing, non-speculation, three red lines and centralized management will continue. Under such a policy background, it is no longer appropriate for enterprises to emphasize high growth rate, so the company's strategy is to "turn from attack to defense" and at the same time increase the assessment of cash and repayment rate.
Xu Shitan said that the company has taken some measures to resist the market downturn. The company analyzed the sales situation in July and August, and the sales of the whole industry declined. 10 In September and June, the company arranged many supply and sprint targets. At present, there is still a gap in the mortgage amount. The company dynamically manages the price and introduces preferential measures for buyers with high down payment ratio. Moreover, Xu Shitan also revealed that the price will be dynamically managed in the second half of the year, and at the same time, preferential measures will be increased.
Can the price be reduced?
Falling house prices should have been a good thing in the eyes of many people. Why is there a "price limit order"? There are both "price limit orders" and "price limit orders" on China News Network. What happened to the property market? It is mentioned in the article that house prices are not "can't fall", but "don't fall blindly".
In the view of Li, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, the goal of property market regulation is "three stabilities" for both the central government and local governments. Big ups and downs are not desirable, which may trigger market expectation fluctuations and further strengthen this big ups and downs. In other words, if there is a significant decline, it may lead to further decline due to market expectations, forming a downward cycle. At this time, it is necessary to prevent the formation and circulation of this expectation through government intervention.
The relevant staff of Yueyang Housing and Construction Bureau also said in response to the "Notice on the Price Limit of Online Signing of New Commercial Housing in the Real Estate Market" that the debt pressure of leading real estate enterprises is relatively high recently, and the price of real estate is maliciously lowered for withdrawing funds, resulting in market confusion. This is the main reason for the introduction of policies.
A marketer of a 40-strong real estate enterprise pointed out, "When there is a correction in the market, many developers will make certain price reduction promotions according to their own conditions. Of course, the market is still divided. First-tier and second-tier cities don't have much inventory problems, but the third-and fourth-tier properties are relatively slow to transform during the property market correction period, so in order to speed up sales, we will give some discounts, which is normal. The government is mainly cracking down on malicious price cuts, fearing that it is not conducive to market stability and will also trigger social events such as rights protection. "
"The downward pressure on housing prices in some cities is indeed increasing. According to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics, in recent months, the number of cities with declining housing prices has been increasing, and the pressure on housing enterprises to reduce debts has also been increasing, which has led to the phenomenon that housing enterprises in some cities or regions have accelerated the pace of shipment and reduced prices to promote sales. However, once the price reduction behavior of real estate enterprises triggers a price reduction tide, it will trigger a chain reaction, which will greatly affect the orderly development of the real estate market, and will also affect the land market and have a greater impact on the local economy. " Jaco, dean of the branch of Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said.
So, is the "price limit order" effective? In Li's view, the property market is running at the highest level in history, and all parties have high requirements for stability. Whether it is a rapid rise or a rapid decline, whether it is the whole city or some cities, it needs appropriate intervention, including not allowing large-scale price reduction marketing. This is a logic that does not allow large-scale rise, and this intervention must be effective.
Guo Zhen, a researcher in the real estate industry of Guangfa Securities Development Research Center, told this newspaper that the government does not want to see the situation that house prices have been falling after housing enterprises bid with each other, which will also make the market enter a relatively vicious state. Therefore, maintaining the stability of house prices without skyrocketing has always been the direction of regulation in recent years.
Liang Nan, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, pointed out that from the perspective of cities that have issued "price limit orders", they are basically cities with high inventory and high pressure. Perhaps some developers cut prices sharply in order to speed up the sales repayment, which led to market chaos to some extent, which was not conducive to the development of the property market. The introduction of the "price limit order" can effectively curb the rapid decline of house prices, avoid market chaos such as sharp price cuts, further standardize the transaction behavior of the property market, and help promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.