According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the third week of June 5438+February, the national average pork price was 36.22 yuan/kg, down 4.7% from the previous week.
At the same time, a number of breeding enterprises have recently announced price cuts.
Is this pork "stable" for free?
For one and a half months, the price of pork fell 12.93%.
Let's look at a set of data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs:
1October 1 1 week, the national average price of live pigs was 26.87 yuan/kg. 12 In the third week, the price dropped to 2 1.43 yuan/kg, a decrease of 20.25%.
1October 1 1 In the first week, the national average pork price was 4 1.60 yuan/kg, and in the third week, it was 65,438+2.03%, and the price dropped to 36.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 12.93%.
According to the consumer's reaction, the price of meat has really dropped recently. Although the current price is far from the freedom of pork, it is already an improvement.
Maybe everyone will be curious: Why did the price of live pigs fall to the cost line of 8 yuan/kg, and the price of pork was still 18 yuan/kg? In fact, a pig needs to go through at least three stages: slaughter, wholesale and retail, and the corresponding costs include slaughter cost, storage cost, transportation cost, labor cost and booth cost. There is no obvious direct correlation between the cost of these intermediate stages and the price of live pigs, and the final result is that the price of live pigs falls faster than that of pork.
Before, we specially wrote an article to analyze this phenomenon. Interested friends can look forward to it.
What are the benefits of falling pork prices?
On the one hand, everyone has always said that high-priced pork has inhibited residents' consumption, and there is no accurate data on how much it has been suppressed.
However, according to experts' analysis, after the epidemic prevention and control was released, catering consumption declined, because the first round of infection peak came, and the amount of bacon in the superimposed south decreased by nearly 30%. In the past month or two, the demand for pork has decreased by about 20% compared with previous years.
Nowadays, the first batch of "Yang Kang" has been restored one after another, and the decline in pork prices can just stimulate consumption.
On the other hand, from a macro perspective, the decline in pork prices is a general trend.
Since the beginning of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and other departments have repeatedly taken measures to stabilize prices and supply, and stabilized the pig market by putting in reserve meat and interviewing pig enterprises.
The decline in pork prices can just cool down the entire industrial chain and leave more room for the market.
Near New Year's Day, the fall in pork prices may drive more consumption.
In addition to the drop in pork prices, there is good news in the market.
Soybean meal fell, and many feed companies announced price cuts.
165438+1Since mid-October, the price of soybean meal has started to decline.
Looking back on the market trend of soybean meal, according to the monitoring of a large number of live pig data, the average price of soybean meal in China was 37 10 yuan/ton on June 2022 and exceeded 5,000 yuan/ton on March 25, 2022. After that, the price of soybean meal was stable at more than 4300 yuan/ton for half a year.
This situation was broken in September. On September 24th, the national average price of soybean meal soared to more than 5000 yuan/ton again, and the feed price has been rising since then.
Fortunately, after the imported soybeans arrived in Hong Kong, the soybean meal began to decline from 1 1+0.
In the process of soybean meal price fluctuation, domestic feed prices experienced 12 price increases. According to the agency's calculation, compared with before the epidemic, the breeding cost has increased by about 500 yuan/head this year, of which the increase in feed cost accounts for the bulk.
However, with the increase of soybean supply, the operating rate of oil plants has increased, the stock of soybean meal has increased, and the price has gradually dropped.
By February 27th, the national average price of 65,438,43% protein soybean meal had dropped to 5 128 yuan/ton, which was lower than the highest price by 640 yuan/ton.
The ex-factory price of 43% soybean meal in Jiangsu dropped to about 4,600 yuan/ton, with a drop of more than 1 10,000 yuan/ton.
Since 65438+February, feed manufacturers such as Haida, New Hope, Jiangsu Daxin, Henan Agricultural Sciences have taken the initiative to cut feed prices, and some manufacturers have cut prices several times in one month.
Summary of some feed price reduction information:
Concentrate (including sow concentrate and piglet concentrate): down 150-300 yuan/ton.
Textbook: down 50- 150 yuan/ton.
Full-price materials: 50- 100 yuan/ton lower.
In addition, the current drought in South America has eased, which is conducive to soybean planting and growth. The industry expects that soybean meal still has room to fall.
In other words, the cost of farming is expected to decrease.
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At present, the price of pork has dropped slightly, which is conducive to the recovery of subsequent consumption and good news for consumers and farmers.
As for the cost of breeding, years ago was the right time to slaughter, and the situation was good. It is expected that the demand for soybean meal will decrease in the future, the demand for soybean meal will increase and the superimposed demand will decrease, and the breeding cost is expected to further decrease.
After the supply and demand of the whole market tends to be stable, the development of the live pig market will be more stable, or there will be no ups and downs. For farmers, a stable profit level can make them develop continuously in the industry, while for consumers, the freedom of pork is not far away.
Do you agree with this view? Welcome to leave a message for discussion!