(3) The supply of low education is in short supply, and the supply of high education exceeds demand.
According to the above report, the demand ratios of junior high school and below, senior high school, junior college, university and master's degree (that is, labor demand/labor supply, greater than 1 indicates insufficient labor supply, and less than 1 indicates insufficient labor demand) are 1.07, 0.96, 0.82, 0.78 and 0.07 respectively. However, the minimum demand ratio of university, master's degree or above has not changed, indicating that the contradiction between supply and demand of highly educated workers is the most prominent, while the demand ratio of workers with junior high school education or below exceeds 1, indicating that the current industrial structure is still dominated by low-end services and low-end products. These situations pose a severe challenge to our education department and education system, and also require our industrial authorities to speed up industrial upgrading.
4. Employment in the east is greatly affected, and the employment situation in the west is good.
(1) The employment in the west has increased against the trend.
In terms of regions, among the 14 provinces where the growth rate of urban employment accelerated in the second quarter, 9 were western provinces, indicating that the western region was relatively weak under the impact of the world economic crisis and received more help from the central government's 4 trillion investment plan.
(2) The employment growth rate in Zhejiang, which has been hit hard, is far ahead.
In the first half of the year, the growth rate of urban employment in Zhejiang Province was above 10%, ranking first, while the growth rate of industrial added value in Zhejiang Province in the first half of the year was only 0.3%, far below the national average growth rate of 7%. The experience of high employment growth in Zhejiang is worthy of serious study by macro-control departments and local labor departments.
(3) The labor supply in the central and western regions exceeds the demand in the east.
The analysis of the national 102 urban employment market released by the monitoring center of China labor market information network shows that the recruitment ratios in the east, middle and west are 0.99, 0.89 and 0.87 respectively, and the recruitment ratios in the east, Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim and southeast Fujian are all around 1. The total supply and demand of the labor market is basically balanced, and the central, western and Pearl River Delta regions are basically balanced.
(4) The structural contradictions in the west are small, while those in the east are large.
The employment growth in the west is fast, but the demand ratio is low, and the demand ratio in the east is high, but the employment growth is slow. The reason for this contradiction is that the demand ratio only explains the relationship between supply and demand of the total amount in the labor market, but cannot explain the actual employment situation. The increase of actual employment also needs to consider the matching degree between labor quality and labor demand. The high recruitment rate in the eastern region shows that the demand for labor in the eastern region is strong, but the demand for labor quality in the eastern region is also higher, which is the main reason why the employment growth in the eastern region is slower than that in the central and western regions.
5, labor supply and demand structure analysis
According to the analysis of national 102 urban employment market released by China labor market information network monitoring center, the structure of labor supply and demand has the following characteristics:
(1) Recently, the more advanced the talent demand, the faster it will grow.
The overall recruitment ratio in the third quarter was 0.94, which was higher than 0.88 in the second quarter and 0.86 in the first quarter, indicating that the employment situation continued to improve. Among them, the demand ratio of technicians is 1.95, up by 10.8% compared with the first quarter, the demand ratio of senior technicians is 2.24, up by 40% compared with the first quarter, and the demand ratio of senior engineers is 2.28, up by 4 1.6% compared with the first quarter. This set of data reflects: first, the supply of labor in ordinary posts seriously exceeds the demand, while the supply of labor with higher skills is seriously short, indicating that there is a big gap between the supply structure of labor in China and the actual demand; Second, the demand for labor is picking up, and the demand for high-skilled talents is picking up quickly.
(2) There are great differences in the increase and decrease of industrial employment in different regions.
According to the statistics of total labor demand of 20 industries, it increased by 0. 1% in the first quarter, 0.5% in the second quarter and 4.5% in the third quarter, showing an obvious upward trend. Among them, the third quarter saw the largest year-on-year increase in labor demand, while the first quarter saw the largest year-on-year decline, indicating that the rebound in manufacturing labor demand was the main factor for the sharp rebound in total labor demand in the third quarter.
6. Labor supply and demand in different positions
(1) Personnel types with oversupply and shortage.
Judging from the situation reflected in the second quarter of some cities, the demand for skilled positions with general skills such as accountants, cashiers, motor vehicle drivers, salespeople, storekeepers, typists, security guards, cashiers, office clerks and ordinary technicians exceeds the demand, and the demand is mainly in three categories. The first category is jobs with high requirements for technology and innovation, such as senior technical posts, creative posts and management posts, and the second category is jobs with income linked to performance. Such as insurance salesmen, enterprise marketers, etc. The third category is jobs with low technical requirements and high physical requirements, such as manual workers, cleaners, restaurant waiters and nursing staff.
(2) Different regions have different demand structures for labor.
Regionally, in most provincial capitals and western cities, the demand for service personnel is high, while the demand for technicians, especially productive technicians, is low, and the demand for personnel is generally low. In the eastern manufacturing-oriented cities, the demand for labor force for service posts is relatively low, while that for technical posts, especially production technical posts, is relatively high, and the demand for labor force is generally high.
2.2065 economic and employment prospects 438+00
1. The external economic environment has improved significantly compared with 2009.
China has a high dependence on export trade, which was 36.3% in 2007 and 33.3% in 2008. Therefore, from June to September, 2009, the national export volume decreased by 2 1.3%, which became the primary factor affecting China's economic growth and employment. According to the prediction of international authoritative organizations, the world economic recession will end in 20 10 and begin to pick up. The latest forecast of IMF is that the world economy will grow by 3. 1% in 20 10, and the latest forecast of World Bank is that the world economy will grow by 2.0%. With the growth of the world economy, international trade will also stop falling and pick up, and China's export growth will stop falling and turn to recovery growth. If the loose monetary policy of developed countries can continue until the middle of next year, it may form a retaliatory rebound in international market demand and drive China's export-oriented economy to rebound rapidly.
2. China's economic structure has been preliminarily adjusted.
After the structural adjustment in 2009, the unbalanced industrial structure has been improved, which is embodied in the following aspects: (1) Automobile, a new consumption hotspot, has been formed, which will not be easy to cool down in the short term and will have a pulling effect on a series of industries; (2) Real estate investment quickly resumed rapid growth. Although high housing prices have a restraining effect on the market, the state will increase investment in affordable housing and low-rent housing, which is conducive to a virtuous circle of the real estate market; (3) After the bumper harvest in agriculture for six years in a row and the national grain purchase price was raised again, the State Council announced that the purchase price of 20 10 wheat would be increased by 3 cents per catty, which would help increase farmers' income and expand rural consumption; (4) Infrastructure such as roads, railways, airports, power grids, urban transportation and environmental protection facilities have been further improved, improving the investment, production and consumption environment; (5) Finance at all levels has increased investment in medical care, social security, old-age insurance, education and other aspects, and the related system construction has also been greatly promoted, which has improved consumers' consumption expectations and is conducive to expanding consumer demand.
3. The policy environment is more conducive to economic development.
(1) On the basis of summing up the experience in 2009, we will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The policy focus will shift from maintaining growth to restructuring, curbing overcapacity, promoting industrial upgrading, and ensuring more funds to enter the real economy, which will not only help to make the policy more effective, but also help to improve the quality and efficiency of economic development and promote comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable economic and social development.
(2) In May 2009, the state reduced the capital ratio of urban rail transit, coal, airports, ports, coastal and inland shipping, railways, highways, commodity housing, postal services, information industry, potash fertilizer and other investment projects, which lowered the threshold of investment projects and was conducive to the growth of investment.
(3) The state will set up a venture capital fund to support the development of emerging industries.
(4) The establishment of GEM in the domestic stock market is conducive to attracting venture capital to invest in new products and technologies, as well as promoting the innovation and entrepreneurship of domestic scientific and technological personnel and increasing the vitality of economic development.
(5) The reform of consumption-oriented value-added tax, which started in 2009, reduced the investment risk of enterprises, increased the sources of investment funds, and was conducive to the expansion of investment scale.
(6) The state has repeatedly raised the tax rebate rate for some export products, set up a central foreign trade development fund, and implemented policies such as export credit insurance and financing guarantee, which is conducive to improving the market competitiveness of export enterprises.
4. The confidence of enterprises and consumers has obviously recovered.
With the economic recovery in China, the consumer information index rebounded from the lowest level of 86.0 in March to 88.0 in August. Although it is still significantly lower than the pre-crisis level, it has formed a steady upward trend. The entrepreneur confidence index rose from the lowest point of 94.6 in the fourth quarter of last year to 120. 1 in the third quarter. Although it is still at the low level of this cycle, it has also formed a stable upward trend, and the acceleration momentum is very obvious. The recovery of consumers' and entrepreneurs' confidence will have a positive impact on the economic development in 20 10.
5. Labor demand will accelerate in 20 10.
The above factors determine that China's economy will recover further in 20 10, and the GDP growth rate will continue to accelerate, which will drive the increase of labor demand. It can be optimistically predicted that the employment situation in 20 10 will be better than that in 2009, but the structural contradiction between labor supply and demand will be more prominent, the contradiction between the demand for skilled talents will be further aggravated, and the demand for unskilled low-end labor will also be in short supply, mainly manifested in the shortage of migrant workers, which will promote the wage level of low-end labor. It is estimated that the registered urban unemployment rate in 20 10 will be lower than that in 2009.
6. Insufficient external demand and rising costs promote industrial upgrading.
After the financial crisis, on the one hand, developed countries led by the United States began to adjust their demand structure and consumption patterns of debt consumption, reducing consumption and increasing savings. This change will definitely affect the growth of China's exports and reduce the growth space of China's exports. At the same time, the competition between developing countries and China enterprises in the international market is becoming increasingly fierce, which may erode China's market share or depress the price of China's export products, creating unfavorable conditions for China's export. On the other hand, the contradiction between domestic labor supply and demand structure will push up labor wage costs and reduce the international competitiveness of low-end products in China. According to a survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics, among the 70 million migrant workers who returned home before the Spring Festival this year,140,000 started businesses or found jobs on the spot. According to this prediction, once the economy recovers completely and the original production level is restored, there will be a shortage of140,000 migrant workers in coastal areas, which will lead to an increase in wages. The combination of these two factors will promote the transfer of China's capital and labor resources from low-end products to high-end products, and accelerate the upgrading of China's product structure. On the one hand, it is a process of upgrading industrial structure, on the other hand, it is also a process of improving labor remuneration and upgrading consumption. This process requires the society to provide more workers with better education and higher technical ability to enterprises, but at present, China's labor production links can not meet this requirement, which is an important reason for the current large number of unemployment.
7. Too loose fiscal and monetary policies may lead to new structural problems.
In response to the international financial and economic crisis, major countries in the world have adopted proactive fiscal policies and quantitative easing monetary policies. Excessive injection of money into the market has revived the financial system, which was seriously short of liquidity and once stopped, and gradually restored its vitality, curbing the continued spread and deepening of the economic crisis. However, this kind of emergency rescue measures is only an emergency behavior, and it is impossible to do it for a long time. Even if it is done for a short time, it will have some side effects on the healthy development of the economy. Taking China as an example, in a series of measures taken by the government to help the economy, the policy on real estate prevented the rational return of housing prices, which made the contracted real estate bubble expand again and buried the hidden danger of economic adjustment. Moreover, the large-scale investment stimulus plan has revived the investment in some surplus industries and aggravated the contradiction of overcapacity; In addition, the ultra-high growth of credit has brought back some enterprises with backward technology and management and overcapacity that should have been eliminated, delaying the progress of structural adjustment; In addition, some credit funds enter the stock and real estate markets for speculation. All these factors increase the future risks of the financial system.
Three. Policy Suggestions on Promoting Employment
1. Maintain steady economic development and promote the upgrading of industrial structure.
At present, there is a view that there has been an overall overcapacity in China, which is very one-sided and does not conform to the actual situation in China. A product surplus means that the investment and production of this product are stagnant, an industry surplus means that the investment and production of this industry are stagnant, and an overall surplus means that the investment and production of the whole country are stagnant. China's GDP per capita is just over $3,000, less than one tenth of that of developed countries. It is ridiculous to announce the overall surplus, and it is also harmful to economic development. In fact, China's current surplus is only partial, mostly temporary and mostly low-level. At present, we can't mass-produce high-end products, and we still have to rely on imports. This is our shortcoming and the direction of our future efforts. In order to curb excess capacity and upgrade the industrial structure, we need stable economic development. Economic overheating often leads to new overcapacity. Although economic contraction is conducive to the inherent requirements of enterprises to upgrade their products and technologies, when economic contraction occurs, enterprises are short of funds and have bad social expectations, which is not conducive to enterprises to upgrade their products and technologies. Therefore, stable economic development is most conducive to structural upgrading. Macro-control is to prevent economic ups and downs, not only to prevent overheating and overheating, but also to maintain relatively stable growth. At present, a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy must be well managed. Too little strength will not have an effect, and too much strength will have great side effects. It is difficult to achieve accuracy and moderation. Between small and big efforts, it is better to be small than big. Although this will have a certain impact on employment, it is more conducive to structural adjustment and sustainable development, and it is also conducive to the increase of employment in the long run.
2, vigorously adjust the educational structure, cultivate the labor force to meet the needs of economic and social development.
Economic development depends on quantitative expansion and structural upgrading. Quantitative expansion growth is easy to reach the limit, and structural upgrading growth has no limit. Even if it reaches the world-leading technical structure, there is still room for improvement. In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economic growth has both quantitative expansion and structural upgrading. The higher the level of economic development, the stronger the demand for structural upgrading and growth. To speed up the structural upgrading, it is necessary to have the corresponding labor quality conditions, which is the biggest constraint for China to achieve structural upgrading at present. Therefore, education is a long-term solution to employment.
At present, China's educational structure and subject setting are seriously out of line with the needs of economic and social development. It is not through the cultivation of talents to promote the upgrading of industrial structure and create more jobs, but that it is difficult for college graduates to find jobs. Starting from the need of benign interaction between sustainable economic development and employment, we must speed up the adjustment of educational structure. First, according to the demand law of the talent pyramid, adjust the academic education structure, reduce the proportion of doctors and masters, improve the quality of training, and expand the proportion of junior college and technical secondary school education. At the same time, the role of academic qualifications is weakened, and the role of grades and contributions in technical post promotion and salary adjustment is emphasized. Second, according to the orientation of China World Factory, we should vigorously cultivate talents in science and engineering, especially pay attention to the cultivation and training of practical ability in various academic education, and improve students' ability to integrate theory with practice. Third, we should reform the college entrance examination enrollment system, promote the transformation of primary and secondary schools from exam-oriented education to quality education, make education more in line with the laws of education, and make the growth of primary and secondary school students more in line with the laws of teenagers' ideological, knowledge, ability and physical development. Fourth, vigorously publicize the glorious idea of workers' glorious work, improve the income level of workers, narrow the basic wage gap between different workers, appropriately expand the compensation gap, encourage more work and more pay, encourage innovators to get more, encourage those who contribute more to get more, and curb speculative income.
3. Strengthen vocational training and re-employment training.
The law of survival of the fittest in market competition will inevitably lead to the bankruptcy of some enterprises and the unemployment of the corresponding labor force, which is the normal state of market economy. Therefore, it is an important duty of governments at all levels to help the unemployed find jobs again. On the one hand, it is necessary to develop professional intermediary organizations to communicate information between employers and job seekers and promote re-employment. On the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen vocational training, improve the labor skills of job seekers and on-the-job workers, and make them adapt to the needs of structural upgrading for high-quality labor. It is necessary to establish a lifelong education system so that anyone who wants to receive any professional training can find a place to study. The government should strengthen the management and supervision of the qualifications of professional training institutions to ensure the quality of training. Encourage universities and large enterprises to use their own teachers and technical strength to set up training institutions and implement enterprise management. The state can implement tax exemption or low tax on professional training activities, so as to reduce the training cost, attract more people to take the initiative to receive training regularly, and meet the demand for skilled labor for the accelerating industrial upgrading.
4. Vigorously promote enterprise informatization.
Enterprise informatization is an important means to improve the competitiveness of enterprises, which plays an unimaginable role in improving the efficiency of enterprise management and technology research and development, reducing the production and marketing costs of enterprises, improving product quality, improving after-sales service, strengthening employee training and technical exchange, and building and upgrading corporate culture. In the process of promoting informatization, enterprises will reduce some jobs and affect a small number of jobs, but fully realizing enterprise informatization will make backward enterprises become advanced enterprises, occupy the commanding heights of international competition, and be invincible in international and domestic competition, not only retaining most of the original jobs of enterprises, but also adding more new jobs. Therefore, the state should promote enterprise informatization through fiscal and taxation policies.
5. Stabilize the real estate market and promote the development of small enterprises.
The continuous rise of real estate prices has not only shattered the housing dreams of most urban residents and farmers without houses, but also greatly raised the threshold of urban entrepreneurship, increased risks, which is not conducive to the establishment and development of small enterprises, reduced employment opportunities and delayed the process of urbanization. Vigorously developing small enterprises, especially small service enterprises, in addition to providing tax incentives, loan support, personnel training, information services and other aspects of support, governments at all levels also need to solve the land and housing problems needed to start enterprises, reduce land and housing costs, and provide a relatively relaxed environment for the establishment and development of small enterprises.
6, the combination of industrial upgrading and industrial transfer
China's foreign trade competitors are mainly emerging countries. Due to the long-term appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar and the rising domestic labor costs, some foreign investors are worried about the price advantage of domestic export enterprises' products and are pessimistic about the development prospects, so they transfer the assets of enterprises settled in the coastal areas of China to neighboring countries, making the workers of these enterprises face unemployment. It is suggested to strengthen preferential policies in the central and western regions, attract low-end foreign-funded enterprises in coastal areas to transfer to the central and western regions, free up land resources for industrial upgrading in coastal areas, upgrade the industrial structure in the central and western regions, concentrate labor-intensive industries in the central and western regions, and promote industrialization and urbanization in the central and western regions.