4. The principle of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis refers to combining quantitative analysis (quantitative forecasting method) with qualitative analysis (qualitative forecasting method) in market forecasting to achieve good forecasting effect. The principle of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis is an important principle of scientific forecasting of modern enterprises. 5. Controllability principle refers to the predicted future development trend and process of objective social and economic events, which can be controlled to some extent. In forecasting practice, that is to say, among the factors that affect the development and change of the forecast object, some are controllable, some are uncontrollable, some can be directly controlled, and some can only be indirectly controlled. Experimental investigation refers to an investigation method to observe and analyze the causal relationship between some variables in market phenomena and their development and change process through experimental comparison under given conditions. Characteristics of experimental method: 1. The data obtained through field experiments are objective and practical, which excludes the deviation of people's subjective estimation. 2. Investigators can conduct reasonable experimental design according to the needs of the investigation project, effectively control the experimental environment, and consciously make the subjects appear repeatedly under the same conditions and conduct experiments repeatedly, thus making the investigation results more accurate. 3. Investigators can take the initiative to cause changes in market factors, and study the impact of the factors on the market by controlling their changes, instead of passively and passively waiting for the occurrence of a phenomenon, which cannot be done by other investigation methods. Leading indicator: the change time is earlier than the predicted object, that is, the peak or trough appears earlier than the predicted object. Synchronization indicator: the change time is completely synchronized with the forecast object, that is, the time when the trough and peak appear is consistent with the forecast object. Lag index: the objective probability of lagging behind the predicted object in the change time, which refers to the number of times an event occurs when an experiment is repeated infinitely many times. It is only applicable when the experiment can be repeated many times under the same conditions. Subjective probability method is a qualitative prediction method that the forecaster subjectively estimates the probability of the predicted event and then calculates the average value as the conclusion of the predicted event. Markov prediction method refers to a prediction and analysis method to estimate and speculate the future state of the object system according to the transition probability in the process of the object system transferring from one state to another. The basic principle of market forecast is to analyze, estimate and judge the development trend of commodity supply and demand in the future and the changes of related factors by using scientific methods on the basis of investigating and studying the factors affecting the change of market supply and demand.
Prediction is a process of objectively estimating and scientifically judging the future development trend of things by using experience, software programs and decision-making models based on the sorted information, data, materials and past experience obtained from investigation. Long-term forecasting generally refers to forecasting the market development prospects for more than five years, such as the impact of inflation trends, changes in raw materials and energy supply on enterprises and their operating environment. Medium-term forecast generally refers to the forecast of market development and change from/kloc-0 to 5 years, which is between long-term forecast and short-term forecast. The forecast time of short-term forecast is generally below 1 year, such as the change of quarter, month or days. Qualitative prediction analysis is to analyze and predict the properties of the predicted object by using related technologies. Quantitative analysis and forecast is mainly based on the relevant data and information collected in the market investigation stage, and through the establishment of appropriate mathematical models to analyze past and present market changes and predict future market trends. International market forecast refers to the market forecast with the development trend of the international market worldwide as the object. National market forecast is a market forecast based on the national market situation. Theme market forecast refers to the forecast of some market conditions made by market forecasters in order to solve a specific problem. Comprehensive market forecast refers to the comprehensive forecast of all aspects of the market by market forecasters in order to fully understand the development trend of the market. Market forecast content: 1. Market environment forecast, 2. Market demand forecast, 3. Market supply forecast, 4. Market supply and demand forecast, 5. Consumer buying behavior prediction, 6. Product market forecast, 7. Product sales forecast, 8. Market quotation forecast, 9. Forecast of market competition pattern, 10. Forecast the market of enterprise management. By combining the causal principle with qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper predicts what impact the changes of international and domestic environmental factors will bring to the production and business activities of specific markets or enterprises. Market demand forecast is to analyze and forecast the factors of demand change by combining qualitative and quantitative analysis on the basis of market demand survey. Market supply forecast refers to the analysis and forecast of market supply, supply structure and supply change factors in a certain period and scope. Market supply and demand forecasting is to judge the trend of market operation and whether there is a total imbalance between market supply and demand. The prediction of consumers' buying behavior is to judge consumers' buying behavior on the basis of consumer investigation and research. Market forecast is to predict and analyze the market situation and operation state of the whole market or a certain kind of goods, and reveal the prosperity state of the market. The prediction of market competition pattern is to predict and analyze the competitive situation of similar enterprises' products.
When implementing Delphi method, we should pay attention to the following problems: ① The number of experts participating in the survey should not exceed 20, and the questionnaire recovery rate should not be lower than 60% to ensure the authority and extensiveness of the survey. (2) Provide experts with enough data and information so that they can make judgments and predictions; (3) Get the support of participating experts to ensure that they can make every prediction seriously; At the same time, we should also explain the significance and role of forecasting to the top management of the company and obtain the support of the top management. ④ Improve the quality of the questionnaire, ask questions according to the purpose of prediction, and express clearly, so as to ensure that experts can understand the questions from the same angle and avoid misunderstandings and ambiguities. The first application of copywriting investigation method is for systematic or special historical research. For example, investigate the history of provinces, cities, districts and counties. Second, it is used for special comparative (historical and observational) research. Third, it is the first choice for other field investigation methods. All investigation activities begin with the collection of second-hand information by literature method, and high-quality investigation must have sufficient second-hand information. Advantages and limitations of observation method 1, advantages: (1) intuitive and reliable; (2) strong applicability; (3) simple and flexible; (1) Observation activities must be at the scene where market phenomena occur; (2) Observation is easily limited by time and space; (3) The investigation time is long and the cost is high; (4) Some market phenomena cannot be observed. (2) Because the experimental method is carried out in a certain small-scale environment, it can be well controlled in management. 2. Limitations: (1) Long time and high cost; (2) It is difficult to choose a fully representative experimental market; (3) can only analyze the status quo, can't collect views and opinions on the past and the future. 3. Network survey refers to a method of using the Internet as a technical carrier and communication platform for investigation. The business process of online survey: project design → online questionnaire survey → questionnaire survey → data processing/analysis → survey report. Characteristics of online survey (1) Wide range of survey objects (2) Fast survey speed (3) Objective survey results (4) Low survey cost (5) Flexibility and limitations of interesting online survey (1). The reliability of the survey results is not optimistic. 2. Limitations of questionnaire design. It is difficult to verify the identity of the interviewee. 4. The cheating behavior of the interviewee. 5. Network security has also become a major obstacle to the development of network statistical investigation. Markov chain: If a system has n states, the time of state transition is discrete (such as month, season and year), and this transition has no aftereffect, it is said that the system constitutes a Markov chain.
The content of the market research report is 1. The report includes. The cover part generally includes the project name (title); Name, address, telephone number, website and e-mail; Investigation unit; Report recipient or organization; Date of submission of report, etc. 2. Report summary Report summary is also called manager summary. There are some requirements for writing a report summary: it should be clear, concise and highly summarized in content, popular and concise in language, and try to avoid using uncommon words or some overly professional and technical terms. 3. Report Catalogue The report catalogue of the market survey report should include all the contents of the survey activities, and it is usually required to list the title, subtitle name and page number of each content. The length of the whole catalogue is not easy to be too long, so one page is appropriate. 4. Introduction, also known as "preface", is the beginning of the text of a written report, which mainly explains the nature of the problem, briefly describes the investigation objectives and specific investigation problems, and summarizes the organizational structure of the report. 5. Survey technology and sample description: Make a detailed, objective and fair record of the methods used in the implementation of the survey plan and sample extraction. The specific contents include the nature of the information needed for the investigation, the collection scheme of original and second-hand data, questionnaire design, scale technology, pre-test and correction technology of the questionnaire, sampling technology, information collection, collation and analysis, statistical technology to be adopted and the treatment method of missing values. The author of the report should try his best to express these contents in unprofessional and easy-to-understand language, and if there are very professional contents, they should be put in the appendix. 6. Investigation conclusions, suggestions and limitations Investigators should explain what important conclusions have been obtained from the investigation and what measures have been taken according to the investigation conclusions. Concise language should be used for conclusions and suggestions, so as to make readers clear the theme, deepen their understanding and inspire readers to think and associate. The findings and suggestions generally take the following forms: explanation. Summarize the main points of the investigation report; Inference. Conduct in-depth and detailed scientific analysis of real data and draw the conclusion of the report; Suggestions. After analyzing things and forming opinions, put forward suggestions and feasible schemes; Look to the future. That is, through investigation and analysis, look forward to the future prospects. 7. The annex refers to the part that is not mentioned in the text of the report, but is related to the text and must be explained. Mainly reflected in the listing of information. Such as all technical details in market research activities, including information sources, statistical methods, detailed tables, descriptions and definitions, and related reference materials. Preparation of market research report 1. Writing position investigators should have strict professional ethics, respect facts and reflect facts. No matter how to introduce the investigation methods, or make investigation conclusions and suggestions, and ask questions, we must reflect objectivity. Do not distort the facts of the investigation and do not cater to the wishes of others. At the same time, before or during the writing of the report, investigators should always focus on their own investigation objectives, so that the investigation report is targeted. 9. Language requirements
The forecast and analysis of the development cycle of China's mobile phone market shows that China's mobile phone market has just stepped out of the introduction period and entered the growth period. It can be said that at present, national mobile phones are facing a golden age of rapid development, and the market prospect is very optimistic, which provides a strong decision-making basis for China's mobile phone manufacturers and operators to be invincible in China's mobile phone market. What factors are generally affected? First, the information used in forecasting is incomplete or untrue. Second, forecasters are of low quality, insufficient ability or subjective and arbitrary. Third, the forecasting model is wrong. Fourth, the emergence of unexpected events.
￥
5.9
Baidu library VIP limited time discount is now open, enjoy 600 million +VIP content.
Go get it now
The Relationship between Market Forecasting and Decision-making
The Relationship between Market Forecasting and Decision-making
Generally speaking, the decision-making process is roughly as follows: (1) Ask questions, set goals, and collect a lot of accurate data through surveys and other methods. (2) Make predictions, draw up decision-making plans, and analyze the feasibility of various decisions, including the evaluation of their technical and economic effects. (3) Decision-making, that is, decision-makers or decision-makers collectively choose the best scheme among various schemes. From the general process of decision-making, it can be seen that prediction is the premise, the foundation and the most complicated stage, but the most critical stage is decision-making. Because whether the decision is correct or not is related to the success or failure of business activities and the size of economic benefits.
Market forecast serves economic decision-making. The application of service principle in forecasting work has two functions: (1) It requires that market forecasting, market investigation and market intelligence collection as its basis should have clear purpose and certain pertinence, and design investigation scheme, investigation content, investigation method, prediction scope, caliber and prediction model according to the needs of decision-making. (2) The determination and selection of business decisions attach importance to the role of market forecasting, especially under the conditions of socialist market economy. Whether it is macroeconomic decision-making or microeconomic decision-making, we can't make decisions by experience and slapping our heads as in the past, but we should build on scientific market forecasting. Only in this way can we make decision-making more scientific and better improve the economic and social economic benefits of enterprises.
Page 1