The central and local policy support, the "loosening" of the purchase restriction index, the preferential treatment of enterprises, and the return of oil prices to the 5 yuan era ... undoubtedly brought hope to the recovery of the domestic automobile market.
Over the past month or so, the Ministry of Commerce has proposed five measures to promote automobile consumption.
The cold winter that began on 20 18 has not yet ushered in warm spring, and the automobile market has been hit hard by the epidemic.
According to the latest production and sales data released by the China Automobile Association, in February, the production and sales of automobiles were 285,000 and 3,654,380+0,000 respectively, down 83.9% from the previous month and 79.8% and 79. 1% from the same period last year. In June and February, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.048 million and 2.238 million respectively, down by 45.8% and 42% respectively.
In order to save the decline, the government has taken measures one after another.
On March 26th, the Ministry of Commerce held an online press conference. It was mentioned at the meeting that in the next step, the Ministry of Commerce will encourage all localities to introduce measures to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles and carry out trade-in of vehicles to further stabilize and expand automobile consumption.
Three days ago, on March 23rd, the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce, the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission and the General Office of the National Health and Wellness Commission jointly issued the Notice on Supporting Commercial Circulation Enterprises to Resume Business, which clearly stated that it was necessary to "actively promote the optimization of automobile purchase restriction measures and stabilize and expand automobile consumption".
On March 13, 23 departments, including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of Finance, jointly proposed "to promote the change of automobile purchase restriction to guiding use policy, and encourage automobile purchase restriction areas to appropriately increase the tail number of license plates".
In fact, for more than a month, the Ministry of Commerce has mentioned promoting automobile consumption five times in a row.
On February 16, Qiushi published a heavy article, pointing out that it is necessary to actively stabilize traditional mass consumption such as automobiles, encourage areas where automobile purchases are restricted to appropriately increase the number of automobile license plates, and drive the consumption of automobiles and related products.
Since then, starting from February 20th, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other national ministries and commissions have repeatedly issued or jointly issued documents, referring to policies to promote automobile consumption.
Super 9 places have introduced automobile stimulus policies.
Vigorously promoted at the national level, and all localities immediately responded positively.
According to the news from official website, Changchun Municipal Government on March 29th, Changchun recently introduced a series of policies and measures to promote automobile consumption, such as the maximum subsidy of 4,000 yuan for new cars.
On March 25, Nanchang officially introduced measures, pointing out that in order to guide the upgrading of automobile consumption, car buyers who bought new cars (including passenger cars and commercial vehicles) in Nanchang during the epidemic period were subsidized according to the standard of 1 10,000 yuan/vehicle.
On March 24th, Zhejiang Province issued the "Implementation Opinions on Boosting Consumption and Promoting Stable Economic Growth". In terms of "releasing urban and rural automobile consumption potential", it is proposed to encourage Hangzhou to relax automobile purchase restrictions in an orderly manner.
On March 25th, Hangzhou issued a new regulation on the total control and management of passenger cars, and decided to add 20,000 new car purchase indicators at one time in 2020.
Ningbo also proposed that from March 25 to September 30, if consumers buy passenger cars produced and sold locally in Ningbo and license them locally, they will give each car a one-time profit of 5,000 yuan, and each enterprise will be limited to selling 6,000 cars.
Foshan gives subsidies to consumers who buy the "National Six" standard models, and each car gives subsidies ranging from 2,000 to 5,000 yuan;
Consumption subsidies for Zhuhai to purchase "National Six" standard models;
Xiangtan gives a purchase tax subsidy of 3,000 yuan/vehicle to local Geely-related vehicles;
Guangzhou will give individual consumers a comprehensive subsidy of 1 10,000 yuan/vehicle for purchasing new energy vehicles, and a subsidy of 3,000 yuan/vehicle for replacing or scrapping used cars and purchasing new cars with the "National Six" standard;
Changsha gives consumers who buy vehicles produced by SAIC Volkswagen, BYD, GAC Mitsubishi, GAC Fick and Cheetah a one-time subsidy of 3% of the bare car price, and the maximum subsidy for each car does not exceed 3,000 yuan.
At the local level, the policy of encouraging automobile consumption is gradually landing.
It is understood that since the beginning of February, Guangdong (Foshan, Guangzhou, Zhuhai), Hunan (Xiangtan, Changsha), Zhejiang (Hangzhou, Ningbo), Jiangxi (Nanchang), Jilin (Changchun) and other provinces and cities have successively announced corresponding automobile consumption stimulus policies.
Judging from the number of cities, at least nine cities have joined the ranks of encouraging automobile consumption.
The index of restricted cities is "loose"
In addition, increasing the purchase restriction index has also become one of the main measures to stimulate the automobile market in this round of restricted cities.
Previously, Guangzhou and Hangzhou, as cities that implemented the automobile purchase restriction policy, began to "loosen" the car purchase index.
Guangzhou plans to further increase the car purchase index on the basis of adding 654.38+million brand lottery and lottery indicators last year. Hangzhou will increase 20,000 indicators at one time in 2020.
On March 25th, the new regulations on the total control and management of passenger cars issued by Hangzhou proposed to add 20,000 passenger car indicators at one time this year.
Before Hangzhou announced the increase index, Shanghai had already acted "quietly".
According to the information released by Shanghai, the personal quota of Shanghai brand in March was 1 1970, which was significantly higher than that of 7966 in February, and the winning rate was also increased from 6. 1% to 8.9%.
It is worth pointing out that Beijing, the city with the strictest automobile purchase restriction, is also studying and formulating policies and measures to promote automobile consumption.
Previously, the "Measures for Stimulating Automobile Consumption in Beijing" was circulated on the Internet, which mentioned that in the first half of the year, no less than 654.38+10,000 car purchase targets were released to car-free families and families within the waiting range in Beijing, but the news was later deleted.
Weibo, an official of Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, said that in mid-March, Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce put forward the idea of stimulating automobile consumption (without investigation and demonstration) in order to cope with the adverse effects of COVID-19 epidemic and promote the recovery of the consumer market.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Federation, said in an interview with the media that the apology of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce does not mean that it is not feasible to open new energy license plates in the future. It's just that the information given in the news involves too many new energy number plate indicators, which may only be in the discussion stage and not suitable for public announcement.
Cui Dongshu said that automobile consumption accounts for the largest proportion of Beijing's commodity consumption, and if the previously announced policies can be implemented in 2020, it will stimulate hundreds of billions of consumption.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Association, believes that loosening the purchase restriction policy is the most effective measure to increase car sales. "The rapid recovery of the automobile retail end can stimulate the recovery of production, and demand is the most important."
The Federation said that for cities with restricted purchases, it is more important to boost automobile consumption by increasing purchase indicators. It is expected that some urban policies will take effect in April.
First-time buyers in third-and fourth-tier cities will become key consumers.
According to the 265438+20th Century Business Herald, the survey of "China's Automobile Consumption Trend under the Epidemic Situation" conducted by China Automobile Finance Laboratory shows that more than half of the people did not plan to buy a car in advance due to the epidemic situation, and the first purchase of the people just in need in third-and fourth-tier cities will become the focus of market revival.
Because COVID-19 virus can spread through droplets at close range, and the travel inconvenience caused by the epidemic, many car-free families realized the necessity of private cars, which also gave birth to the first purchase demand of car-free families.
Among the car-free people surveyed, respondents in third-and fourth-tier cities think that private cars are very important to individuals/families. First-time buyers in these third-and fourth-tier cities will become the focus of market revival.
According to the survey, affected by the epidemic, the car purchase plan of more than half of the car-free people is obviously ahead of schedule; 60% of people with cars will keep the new car/replacement car purchase plan unchanged, and14 will choose to postpone the plan.
Among the car-free people in third-and fourth-tier cities, 34.67% of the respondents said they would "plan to buy a car in advance and plan to buy it this year"; 16.44% of the respondents said that "the car purchase plan will be advanced and will be purchased as soon as the epidemic is over"; 14.22% of the respondents indicated that they had "reserved vehicles", which was significantly higher than the overall data.
The automobile market is recovering.
Although the current situation is not good, signs of improvement in the automobile industry have begun to appear.
According to the data of china automobile dealers association, the average daily retail volume of passenger cars was only 8 1 1 in the first week of February, 41kloc-0/in the second week, 54 1 1 in the third week and rose to165000/in the fourth week. The auto market is accelerating its recovery.
According to the data of the Federation, since March, the retail performance of the passenger car market has rebounded relatively steadily.
On March1June-22, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars was 25842? Cars, down 40% year-on-year, compared with 20 19? In the same period of that year, the decline of 17% dropped significantly, which was narrower than the 44% decline of retail sales on March 9-15, 2020.
On March1June-22, the average daily sales volume of passenger cars was 23976? Cars, down 53% year-on-year, compared with 20 19? The decline rate of 16% in the same period last year was significantly lower than that on March 9-15, 2020? The decline of 67% has narrowed.
According to the data of china automobile dealers association, as of March 24th, 94.7% of the 142 automobile dealer group stores surveyed by the association have returned to work, the average daily passenger flow has recovered to 6 1.7%, and the vehicle sales output value has also recovered by more than half.
Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary-General of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said: "From the data, although the decline in production and sales still reached 50%, compared with February, the decline in production and sales has been significantly improved. Judging from the trend of the overall automobile market, with the improvement of the recovery speed of enterprises, the overall automobile market performance in March will be better than that in February, and the automobile market performance will be better and better in the later period. "
It will bring about 390.6-802.4 billion yuan of new consumption.
Credit Suisse Research Institute predicts that domestic automobile demand will return to normal level before the end of April, and will resume year-on-year growth in May. Therefore, Credit Suisse Banking Research Institute predicts that passenger car sales will decrease by 8% year-on-year in 2020, which means that sales will increase by 4% year-on-year from May to 65438+February.
Citic Securities pointed out that it is expected that the automobile consumption policy will start from key cities and be implemented on a large scale. It is estimated that under conservative and optimistic circumstances, the policy will bring about an increase of automobile consumption of about 390.6-802.4 billion yuan, accounting for 9.9%-20.4% of the automobile retail sales in 20 19.
The automobile industry has advantages.
Insiders pointed out that the auto sector has two significant advantages in the A-share market.
First, the overall valuation and PB of the automobile sector are very low, basically located in the bottom area, especially the subdivided parts sector.
Second, the overall position of the automobile sector remained low, lower than the historical average.
Soochow securities Huang Xili pointed out that the tone of "stabilizing automobile consumption" has been set, the landing measures can be expected, and the impact of the epidemic will be hedged. The judgment of maintaining economic recovery in 2020 -202 1.
In the field of passenger cars, traditional cars are still the core variable of car enterprise performance. Under the stock game, the market share of Japanese cars continues to increase, and Guangzhou Automobile Group mainly recommends that Great Wall Motor has a leading market share in the field of independent SUVs.
Parts plate, layout of three main lines:
1) We are optimistic about the high prosperity in the field of aluminum alloy lightweight, and mainly recommend Top Group, which has cut into Tesla's industrial chain, and the supporting value of bicycles continues to increase.
2) The industrial chain target of intelligent networking is expected to accelerate the commercialization of 2)5G. Desai Siwei is mainly recommended, and Chineydy+Coboda+China Automotive Research Institute+Sheng Jun Electronics are concerned.
3) Recommend Wan Liyang, an independent faucet that benefits from the improvement of CVT transmission permeability.
4) It is suggested to pay attention to the interior field and cut into the low valuation target of Tesla industrial chain: Huayu Automobile+Ningbo Hu Axiang+Daimei.
Shanghai Securities researcher pointed out that the epidemic situation has a great impact on the passenger car market in the short term, and the sales volume of Q 1 may decline or further expand. It is expected that the demand for car purchase will be delayed, especially the demand for first-time car purchase will increase.
At the same time, the recent policy support for the auto market is expected to be strengthened. The Ministry of Commerce encourages all localities to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles according to local conditions, which will cushion the impact of the epidemic to some extent.
According to the Western Securities Research Report, according to industry research, automobile consumption in some areas recovered well in March 1 week, but some areas were affected by the epidemic, and the rate of 4S stores returning to work was low, with great regional differences across the country.
From the headquarters, the average daily sales of some key car factories are still lower than 50% in the same period last year. Due to the cancellation of auto show and offline promotion, the short-term impact on automobile consumption still exists.
The agency expects that the industry will still experience negative year-on-year growth in March, but the trend of sales volume rebound is determined, and positive year-on-year sales may appear at the end of the second quarter.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.